In this week’s coverage, we analyze the continued rally in May Silver futures, the reversals in May Crude oil and June Dow Jones futures, and the downtrend in June Japanese Yen futures. We also examine the economic reports and earnings announcements expected next week.
Commentary and charts reflect data at the time of writing. Market conditions are subject to change and may not reflect all market activity.
June E-mini Dow Jones Index Futures Weekly Chart
June E-Mini Dow Jones Index futures continued its bearish reversal, closing below the January open and bringing the Dow into negative territory for the calendar year. The low (made on Friday), neared the 26-week moving average which coincides with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the uptrend that began in October of last year. The Dow remains above its 200-week moving average as well as the Ichimoku cloud. Last week’s trading formed a bearish cross on the MACD (the MACD line crossed below its signal line) which might confirm that a downtrend is in play. The RSI fell rapidly from being overbought 2 weeks ago to a middling number of 50–trending in line with price. Should this downtrend continue, look for support at the 26-week moving average (37,870) and further down at the 50% Fib level (36,785). A rally may see some congestion at the 23% Fib retracement level (38,675).
May Crude Oil Futures Futures Weekly Chart
May WTI crude oil futures saw a pause in the uptrend that began at the start of this year, forming a bearish harami (wherein the body of last week’s red candle is engulfed by the previous week’s green candle). Note though that lows have been consecutively higher since breaking above the 26-week moving average almost two months ago, and price remains above both moving averages and the Ichimoku cloud. The MACD continues to rise into positive territory (bullish) while the RSI pulls back just a little bit, though in line with price action. If this market continues to trend down, support might be found at the top of the Ichimoku cloud, which aligns with the 50% Fibonacci extension level (81.85). If the uptrend resumes course, upside targets include the 76.4% Fib extension level (89.60), the peak high in October (~93.25) and the 100% Fib extension level (~96.50).
June Japanese Yen Futures Weekly Chart
June Japanese Yen futures completed its fifth consecutive bearish weekly candle, with 14 of the last weeks in the red (the lone bullish candle coincided with news that Japan will end its negative interest rate policy). This keeps yen futures below the 26-week and 200-week moving averages, and below the Ichimoku cloud. Despite this, MACD is not showing large advances in downside momentum, with the MACD and signal lines trending around each other. The RSI finally fell below the oversold level of 30. Should this downtrend continue, a downside target could be the 100% Fibonacci extension level (0.0064500). A rally may find resistance at the 26-week moving average (~0.0069100) and further up at the bottom of the Ichimoku cloud (~0.007100).
May Silver Futures Weekly Chart
May silver futures continued their bullish run last week following the previous week's break above the 200-week moving average. Last week's close eclipsed the peak high from April of last year AND the previous peak high occurring in April of 2022. Silver remains above its 26-week moving average and the Ichimoku cloud. The MACD looks increasingly bullish as the histogram continues to rise in positive territory. The RSI is very close to being overbought, trading in line with price, should this market continue the bull trend look for upside targets at the peak high from May 2021 (30.87) and above that the high from February 2021 (32.43). A reverse to the downside might find support at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level (26.95) and further down at the 50% Fib level (26.05).
Companies Reporting Earnings April 15 – April 19
This week begins the first full week of earning season for companies reporting on the first quarter of 2024, continuing from last week with banks and financial services companies. Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, PNC Financial and Bank of New York all report before the open on Tuesday morning. The insurance company, Travelers, joins U.S. Bancorp and Discover Financial on Wednesday, and American Express reports before markets open on Friday. The largest member by weight of the Dow Jones index is United Healthcare, reporting Tuesday morning.
Four other Dow stocks report throughout the week: Johnson and Johnson Tuesday morning, Procter and Gamble on Friday morning, along with the previously mentioned American Express and Travelers.
YM and MYM futures could experience some volatility when these companies report.
Other notable companies reporting: United Airlines and Alaska Airlines both look to post losses this past quarter. Thursday, Taiwan semiconductor should be interesting to watch as they just received multiple billions for capital investment in the United States. Netflix report arriving Thursday aftermarkets could affect NASDAQ and S&P 500 Futures Trading.
| Date | Companies Earnings |
|---|---|
| Monday, April 15 | N/A |
| Tuesday, April 16 | Bank of America Corp. (BAC): $0.77 EPS Estimate, $25.24B Revenue Estimate (BMO) United Health Group, Inc. (UNH): $6.70 EPS Estimate, $99.48B Revenue Estimate (BMO)* Johnson & Johnson (JNJ): $2.64 EPS Estimate, $21.38B Revenue Estimate (BMO)* Morgan Stanley (MS): $1.69 EPS Estimate, $14.40B Revenue Estimate (BMO) Bank of New York Mellon Corporation (BK): $1.20 EPS Estimate, $4.35B Revenue Estimate (BMO) PNC Financial Services Group, Inc. (BAC): $3.09 EPS Estimate, $5.19B Revenue Estimate (BMO) United Airlines (UAL): $-0.52 EPS Estimate, $12.41B Revenue Estimate (AMC) |
| Wednesday, April 17 | Travelers Companies, Inc. (TRV): $4.72 EPS Estimate, $11.16B Revenue Estimate (BMO)* U.S. Bancorp (USB): $0.88 EPS Estimate, $6.69B Revenue Estimate (BMO) Discover Financial Services (DFS): $2.96 EPS Estimate, $4.06B Revenue Estimate (AMC) |
| Thursday, April 18 | Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM): $1.29 EPS Estimate, $18.38B Revenue Estimate (BMO) Alaska Air Group, Inc. (ALK): $-1.09 EPS Estimate, $2.18B Revenue Estimate (BMO) Netflix, Inc. (NFLX): $4.49 EPS Estimate, $9.25B Revenue Estimate (AMC) |
| Friday, April 19 | American Express Co. (AXP): $2.99 EPS Estimate, $15.79B Revenue Estimate (BMO)* Procter & Gamble Co. (WFC): $1.42 EPS Estimate, $20.51B Revenue Estimate (BMO)* |
* indicates that this company is in the Dow Jones Index
Economic Reports for the week of April 15 – April 19
Three themes look to be developing for next week: housing, manufacturing, and Fed speakers. In addition to Federal Reserve Bank presidents Raphael Bostic, Austin Goolsbee, John Williams, Loretta Mester, Lorie Logan, and Mary Daly, we will hear from Governor Michelle Bowman and Vice Chair Philip Jefferson. The Empire State manufacturing index arrives Monday morning at 8:30, industrial production on Tuesday morning, and Philadelphia fed manufacturing index on Thursday morning can give insight into the health of the manufacturing portion of the economy.
The housing market index on Monday housing starts and permits on Tuesday NBA mortgage applications on Wednesday and existing home sales on Thursday give insight into the housing market. The Beige Book on Wednesday afternoon is a compilation of the economic status of 12 Federal Reserve districts as reported by the 12 Federal Reserve banks and can shed some light onto what the Fed members anticipate for the economy in 2024 and beyond.
| Date | Economic Reports |
|---|---|
| Monday, April 15 | 2:30 AM ET: Dallas Fed Bank President Lorie Logan Speaks 8:30 AM ET: Empire State Manufacturing Index* 8:30 AM ET: Retail Sales* 10:00 AM ET: Business Inventories 10:00 AM ET: Housing Market Index 11:00 AM ET: Export Inspections 4:00 PM ET: Crop Progress 8:00 PM ET: San Francisco Fed Reserve Bank President Mary Daly Speaks |
| Tuesday, April 16 | 8:30 AM ET: Housing Starts and Permits 9:00 AM ET: Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson Speaks 9:15 AM ET: Industrial Production 4:30 PM ET: API Weekly Oil Stocks |
| Wednesday, April 17 | 7:00 AM ET: MBA Mortgage Applications 10:00 AM ET: Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations 10:30 AM ET: EIA Petroleum Status Report*** 2:00 PM ET: Beige Book* 4:00 PM ET: Treasury International Capital 5:30 PM ET: Cleveland Fed Bank President Loretta Mester Speaks 6:30 PM ET: Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman Speaks |
| Thursday, April 18 | 8:30 AM ET: Jobless Claims*** 8:30 AM ET: Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index 8:30 AM ET: Export Sales 9:15 AM ET: New York Fed Bank President John Williams Speaks 9:15 AM ET: Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman Speaks 10:00 AM ET: Existing Home Sales 10:00 AM ET: Leading Indicators 10:30 AM ET: EIA Natural Gas Report* 11:00 AM ET: Atlanta Fed Bank President Raphael Bostic Speaks 4:30 PM ET: Fed Balance Sheet 5:45 PM ET: Atlanta Fed Bank President Raphael Bostic Speaks |
| Friday, April 19 | 10:30 AM ET: Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee Speaks 1:00 PM ET: Baker Hughes Rig Count 3:00 PM ET: Cattle On Feed |
*** Market Moving Indicators
* Merit Extra Attention
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