Mike Scinto

ADP reports have signaled January’s job creation to be the strongest in 5 months. A whopping 291,000 private sector jobs were added last month, far exceeding the already solid estimate of 150,000.

One of the most notable features of this report is that job creation came from all sectors, with leisure & hospitality leading the way at 96,000 new jobs. Analysts point to the mild winter as a possible cause for the unexpected gains.Read More

At the conclusion of the FOMC meeting tomorrow, the expectation is the Fed will keep rates unchanged for the foreseeable future. In the words of the Fed last month, “The current rate is appropriate,” suggesting what could be an extended pause for interest rate adjustments.

Recent economic data has been relatively strong and stable, albeit with a slight decline in growth. Job data has been steady and with inflation rising slowly, the Fed is likely happy with their current targets.Read More

Despite tomorrow’s pending employment report, Iran tensions and a phase one trade deal with China remain the primary focus of markets. After November’s strong report, December’s results may appear weak in comparison no matter what they show. Read More

While earlier in the year nearly every FOMC meeting was accompanied by either a rate cut or the expectation of one, tomorrow’s report will have a much different tone as the Fed will likely hold off on cuts for the next few meetings.Read More

The recent rumblings of a slowing economy may be true based on recent data from payroll processor ADP. With a reported increase of only 67,000 new jobs in November, the economy may be entering a slowdown in earnest this time. Manufacturing and construction were the weakest industries with a reduction in total jobs for the third straight month.Read More

Analysts expect Friday’s employment report to show less than 100k new jobs added in October. The consensus estimate at the moment is 85k new jobs with a slight uptick in the unemployment rate. The uptick in unemployment is no surprise, given the record low 3.5% was reached last month.Read More

At the conclusion of tomorrow’s Federal Reserve meeting, another rate cut will likely be announced. The CME’s Fedwatch Tool is showing a 97.5% chance of a rate cut occurring, a near certainty in the market’s eyes.Read More

In our last employment report preview, we discussed the drop in domestic manufacturing and the impact that would have on the markets. On Tuesday, ISM reported the manufacturing index fell to 47.8%, the lowest since 2009 when the great recession was ending.

The selloff in markets the last two days has been attributed partly to this low manufacturing number as it implies third quarter growth will also be lower. It also dispels the notion that the US was isolated from the global slowdown many other countries have been seeing.Read More

The CME FedWatch is currently indicating a 61% likelihood that the FOMC will cut the federal funds rate at the conclusion of their two-day meeting Wednesday afternoon. If implemented, the new target interest rate would be between 175-200 basis points.

Assuming the Fed does indeed lower rates, the language used in their post-meeting press conference will be the focus of the market. Read More

In advance of the upcoming jobs report, economists expect slow job market growth in August with a traditional summer lull and the ongoing trade dispute with China as key contributors. The forecast for the September 6th non-farm payroll number are currently at 160,000 new jobs, a figure both in line with expectations as well as the gradual slowdown we have recently seen.

For roughly 4 months, forecasts have fallen steadily along with overall confidence in the economy and stock market. ADP reported 195,000 new jobs during August which is above the consensus estimate. If tomorrow’s report reveals a similar value, expect markets to have a mixed initial reaction due to its pending impact on the Fed’s decision. Read More