After February’s shockingly low Employment Report, the ADP’s report for March signals a downward trend may be forming.
If the forecast of private sector employers hiring only 129,000 people in March is accurate, it would be the lowest number in the 18 months and fall nearly 40,000 shy of the initial 165,000 expectation. As a reminder, last month 181,000 new jobs were expected and only 20,000 were actually added.Read More
Investors are poised for the outcome of this week’s FOMC meeting with the notes being released tomorrow. The CME FedWatch tool now indicates a greater likelihood of the Fed lowering rates than raising them, a deviation from past meetings.
The market has known for some time the Fed would be cautious in 2019, but a reduction in rates would signal something further. Following four rate hikes in 2018, the Fed has signaled only two hikes for 2019 amid market volatility, weak inflation, and global economic concerns.Read More
The ADP Research Institute reported an increase of 183,000 new jobs for February, exceeding expectations. Growth was seen predominantly in the construction industry and medium size companies. Construction growth is generally seen as a positive signal of market strength as it tends to stall when economic growth begins to slow.
Small businesses did not fare as well with the lag, largely attributed to higher wages and a more competitive hiring environment. Small companies often struggle to match the benefit packages offered by larger employers and this can slow growth in this sector when the job market is tight.Read More
Despite the recent government shutdown, the trade war and the building perception of a pending recession by many analysts, the job market continues to push forward. Economists on Wall Street expect private sector payroll additions of 174,000 for January, while the ADP report shows a robust 213,000 new jobs for the private sector.Read More
With the Federal government temporarily opening, the markets can focus on other factors for now.
Most immediately, the Federal Open Market Committee must decide whether it will adjust the target federal funds rate at the conclusion of their meeting tomorrow. Read More
Depending on who you ask, you may get three or four different answers to the question: What are the biggest risks facing the market right now?
Those citing the trade war base their case on the impact tariffs have already had on the economy. Others might argue the looming government shutdown poses the most severe immediate risk. Yet another group of speculators might view the upcoming FOMC meeting as the next critical market challenge.Read More
The November Employment report published by the ADP showed stable job growth across all segments of the private sector, continuing the recent trend of a tightening labor market.
Analysts are calling for an additional 190,000 to 250,000 nonfarm positions with the unemployment rate currently at 3.7%. Once again, there is the expectation for moderate but not significant wage growth. With Fed chair Powell’s recent comments that interest rates were nearing a ‘neutral level,’ the wage growth number remains key. Read More
After the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) November meeting concludes tomorrow, investors will have a better idea of the Fed’s take on the current economy. Little is expected to change in this policy statement as Fed officials wish to stay out of the markets’ forefront. Read More
Signaling strong job market breadth following the recent hurricanes, ADP reported an increase of 227,000 jobs in the private sector for October surpassing the expected 189,000.
Large companies (500+ employees) accounted for the largest share of additions with 102,000 new jobs while small businesses lagged behind creating only 29,000.Read More
E-Mini S&P 500 Futures (ES) may be approaching a major level of support.
On a daily chart looking back to the start of 2016, these volatile sell offs do not appear as intense as they seem in the moment. Viewing historical price activity helps to gain a greater perspective of the strong uptrend the markets have been in.Read More