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November Department of Labor Payroll Report Expectations

On the heels of overestimating job growth in October, November shattered economists’ expectations with a more than 80% month over month increase of new private sector jobs.

According to ADP, the U.S. economy added 216K jobs in November, crushing the estimated 165K additions.

Economists state that the surge likely stems from retailers reinforcing staffs to meet holiday demand. While seasonal hiring is factored into employment forecasts, the spike came amid President Elect Donald Trump’s unexpected victory in an economy flirting near full employment. As the labor market continues to tighten, naturally economists expected job growth to stall. However, it’s clear the election had little impact on the continued expansion of the labor market.

Unlike the majority of recent employment reports, November’s numbers will likely be less impactful for the Fed given the near certainty of a rate hike in December. The Department of Labor nonfarm payrolls report is due on Friday. Economists expect a 173K increase with unemployment remaining unchanged at 4.9%.

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