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October Employment Report Expectations

Early holiday hiring could point to a strong employment report for October as retail stores bolster workforces to compete with online giants. Conversely this expected seasonal boost may be curtailed by timid employers halting expansion until the election concludes.

According to the National ADP Report, 147K new jobs were created in October – shy of the 165K expected. Octobers ADP report marks the third worst over the last year. Economists forecast the Department of Labor report on Friday at 175K new non-farm payrolls.

Year over year job growth has slowed, however this is an expected metric as the labor market continues tighten as it nears full employment due to a smaller pool of qualified candidates. Economists expect the employment rate to drop a tenth of a percent, down to 4.9%.

As the last jobs report before the U.S. Presidential Election, it may carry less weight than previous reports, much like the FOMC meeting on Wednesday where the markets were relatively unchanged. All eyes seem to be on the election, given all the uncertainty it could bring to the markets, especially now with the race tightening slightly. This can all change in an instant of course if we get a surprise in the numbers.

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