The impact of the employment situation has been high recently due to the implications on interest rate decisions from the Fed. Historically, February is one of the stronger months for job growth, but we think it would require an extremely strong report in all areas to push the Fed into raising rates in this upcoming meeting.
Consensus expectations for Friday’s Payroll report:
- Non-Farm Payrolls: +190,000 with a range of 168,000 to 217,000
- Private Payrolls: +183,000 with a range of 156,000 to 215,000
- Unemployment Rate 4.9%
Certainly keep an eye on the major numbers, the unemployment rate and non-farm payrolls as a surprise in either of these sectors could move the markets. Traders planning to trade this number should be prepared for the increased volatility that comes with these numbers and have a plan in place to minimize their risk.