This will work on anything but it is up to you to find empirical data to find the mean and standard deviation. It will measure area under the normal distribution curve and give you probabilities of further movement.
Negative values under the curve are not included in calculations nor should they be since we are looking at movements of over extensions from positive territory only.
it will calculate probabilities in two ways, odds of continuation from positive movements in general, and odd of continuations from the mean.
If the stock/index/etf is not in positive territory, it simply returns the mean price, area from the mean and the Z-score.
If it is in positive territory but under the mean, calculations are displayed from positive territory on ward only.
If it is in positive territory and above the mean, it will display calculations based on positive movements and also display calculations from the mean on up.
I have no clue how to code as an "Indicator" so its coded as a strategy.
I get a lot of inquiries as to how my quaint system works, this isn't how it works But this is an idea that came to mind. As a result of seeing the financials get so over extended on 4/21, that i decided to short o/n and arb a quick 8% bc the math on what happened was nuts.
make sure the Math.helper file is in the folder that holds the studies in order for the NORMDIST() to work
Similar to this is this post on monitoring day range and calculating Dthe probability of continuation.
edit: 4/26, i cleaned up some labels and straightened out a potential issue with displaying text properly. The attached zip file is the most up to date version.
Negative values under the curve are not included in calculations nor should they be since we are looking at movements of over extensions from positive territory only.
it will calculate probabilities in two ways, odds of continuation from positive movements in general, and odd of continuations from the mean.
If the stock/index/etf is not in positive territory, it simply returns the mean price, area from the mean and the Z-score.
If it is in positive territory but under the mean, calculations are displayed from positive territory on ward only.
If it is in positive territory and above the mean, it will display calculations based on positive movements and also display calculations from the mean on up.
I have no clue how to code as an "Indicator" so its coded as a strategy.
I get a lot of inquiries as to how my quaint system works, this isn't how it works But this is an idea that came to mind. As a result of seeing the financials get so over extended on 4/21, that i decided to short o/n and arb a quick 8% bc the math on what happened was nuts.
make sure the Math.helper file is in the folder that holds the studies in order for the NORMDIST() to work
Similar to this is this post on monitoring day range and calculating Dthe probability of continuation.
edit: 4/26, i cleaned up some labels and straightened out a potential issue with displaying text properly. The attached zip file is the most up to date version.
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