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Cot Report In Ninjatrader

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    #16
    Originally posted by Elliott Wave View Post
    I think the COT Proxy is different. From what I've read the indicator 'tries to emulate the COT so that you can use it on securities that dont have COT'. I could be wrong though.
    I guess I took 'proxy' as a way to get the data into applications -'a go between language for data read/write'....I've never looked at anything other than CFTC data....but, taking a quick look at what 'COT Proxy' actually is, makes me wonder as well.

    I've never really needed a COT Proxy indicator since I trade fx and currency futures (CFTC being sufficient). With equities though, it seems like their respected ETF's and using their non/correlated sector breadth indicators could be compared and used as a type of COT proxy....just a guess.
    Last edited by rretch; 06-06-2009, 10:23 PM.

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      #17
      cot report and cot proxy

      cot proxy emulates cot report for those that don't have cot report (stocks, etc.).
      But in the commodities, the cot proxy emulates the behaviour of the cot report very well. I think that i prefer the cot proxy because in a daily basis you get a better information. In the cot report you can't have a "cot report" for one day that differs from another day. In the same week, you have the same data everyday.

      regards,
      jr.

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        #18
        Originally posted by jrbolsa View Post
        cot proxy emulates cot report for those that don't have cot report (stocks, etc.).
        But in the commodities, the cot proxy emulates the behaviour of the cot report very well. I think that i prefer the cot proxy because in a daily basis you get a better information. In the cot report you can't have a "cot report" for one day that differs from another day. In the same week, you have the same data everyday.

        regards,
        jr.
        Here is a formula I found for 'COT proxy'. It looks quite basic and doesn't require any advanced coding like a proper COT indicator does.

        (MovingAvg (Open - Close, bars used in average) / MovingAvg (Range, bars used average) *50) + 50
        Last edited by Elliott Wave; 06-07-2009, 01:39 PM.

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          #19
          Here is a quick early version of the COT Proxy. I have no idea how it compares to Larry Williams' or Jrbolsa's version, but its a start.

          Maybe people can play around with it and see if its useful at all. I have no idea what the best period setting is. 3 was arbitrarily chosen.
          Attached Files
          Last edited by Elliott Wave; 06-07-2009, 02:33 PM.

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            #20
            Here is a different version.

            -I reversed the plot logic so above center is a rising trend, and below is a falling trend.

            -There is a second smoothed plot which can be used with the other line in a crossover system, or as the primary signal to reduce some whipsaws.

            -The color scheme has been changed to be a little less ugly.

            Hopefully its useful to somebody.


            *The version I'm using uses the JMA, but since that's a proprietary indicator, I used the T3 for this version.
            Attached Files

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              #21
              Originally posted by Elliott Wave View Post
              Here is a different version.
              Do you lease the JMA or is it a one time fee? From what I understood of their website, which was not very clear, is that it's a lease for ninjatrader and one time fee for tradestation. I've considered purchasing it, so many people seem to like it.

              For your oscillator, one way I test mine is to write a simple strategy and if profit factor is > 1 then I am interested, if it's < 1 then I'm not. I use a couple entries but it depends on the oscillator and how it works. Such as:

              - enter when it turns up/down from an extreme
              - enter when it crosses a moving average
              - enter when there is a pullback on its way up/down
              - etc.

              From eyeballing your oscillator I don't see anything predicting turning points but it'd be good to have some proof. Thanks for sharing.

              Comment


                #22
                Originally posted by cunparis View Post
                Do you lease the JMA or is it a one time fee? From what I understood of their website, which was not very clear, is that it's a lease for ninjatrader and one time fee for tradestation. I've considered purchasing it, so many people seem to like it.

                For your oscillator, one way I test mine is to write a simple strategy and if profit factor is > 1 then I am interested, if it's < 1 then I'm not. I use a couple entries but it depends on the oscillator and how it works. Such as:

                - enter when it turns up/down from an extreme
                - enter when it crosses a moving average
                - enter when there is a pullback on its way up/down
                - etc.

                From eyeballing your oscillator I don't see anything predicting turning points but it'd be good to have some proof. Thanks for sharing.
                JMA is a lease. I think the Jurik stuff is actually worth it compared to most other 3rd party stuff, which I don't think has much merit.
                You can find an article on the JMA with code here:
                http://articles.mql4.com/310

                Its on the official MetaQuotes site so I assume its non-infringing. You can probably convert it to NT if you want a real close but not 100% approximation. If you do convert based on that code its probably best to not share it as it could be viewed as infringing.

                Good methodology for evaluating indicators btw. I doubt there is anything to this indicator either, but its something to play around with (maybe others can improve) while we wait to evaluate jrbolsa's indicators.

                Last edited by Elliott Wave; 06-07-2009, 11:26 PM.

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                  #23
                  Originally posted by Elliott Wave View Post
                  Good methodology for evaluating indicators btw. I doubt there is anything to this indicator either, but its something to play around with (maybe others can improve) while we wait to evaluate jrbolsa's indicators.
                  I'm definitely interested in trying out Bolsa's COT indicator. In the meantime I've been working on my own. It's not easy. What I meant earlier when I said I was skeptical.. an example is often the commercials switch sides 3-4 weeks early. So for me the COT gives the direction but not the timing. I'm currently looking at how to introduce a timing aspect which I believe Bolsa has found.

                  Comment


                    #24
                    Originally posted by cunparis View Post
                    I'm definitely interested in trying out Bolsa's COT indicator. In the meantime I've been working on my own. It's not easy. What I meant earlier when I said I was skeptical.. an example is often the commercials switch sides 3-4 weeks early. So for me the COT gives the direction but not the timing. I'm currently looking at how to introduce a timing aspect which I believe Bolsa has found.
                    My idea is simply to use the COT as a directional filter and for choosing which markets to trade.

                    My other great( ) idea was to use the COT to select which currency pair to trade. The futures which the COT is based on are all single currencies, and by finding the currencies the 'big boys' are most long and short of, you can theoretically find the best pair to trade.

                    After trying to figure this all out manually on pen and paper I decided to wait for a COT indicator in NT and just backtest it...

                    Comment


                      #25
                      Elliott Wave,

                      Thanks for the indicator. At first glance, it looks like a tool that can be used along with $TICK as a reference....i'll give it a glance on the YM today (since I can also consider COT data).

                      I wonder if it could help in playing the gap?

                      Also, with aCOT Proxy, is open interest considered in the indicator, or does anyone think it could be done? Think or Swim has Open Interest on the DX futures and it's a nice tool to have.

                      thanks,
                      -robert

                      Comment


                        #26
                        Originally posted by rretch View Post
                        Elliott Wave,

                        Also, with aCOT Proxy, is open interest considered in the indicator, or does anyone think it could be done? Think or Swim has Open Interest on the DX futures and it's a nice tool to have.

                        thanks,
                        -robert
                        I'm curious how you are using open interest? I haven't used it myself.

                        Comment


                          #27
                          Originally posted by cunparis View Post
                          I'm curious how you are using open interest? I haven't used it myself.

                          I'll give you the quick version.

                          If the DX, for example, is rising, and the open interest is rising, this indicates a bullish interest on the DX. Higher open interest numbers indicate more contracts being written between two people. If DX is rising, on the other hand, and open interest is falling, this indicates fewer contract writes and 'could' indicate a bearish DX.

                          DX price falling and open interest falling = sentiment is bearish in the near term since longs are selling w/o new contracts being written between two 'new' participants (indicating a falling open interest), but it may indicate a turning towards a bullish Dollar once the sells are done and new buyers come in that require writing new contracts.

                          DX price falling and open interest rising = sentiment may be turning towards a Bearish Dollar

                          that's the quick and easy of it.....it's much easier just looking at it on a chart.....
                          Last edited by rretch; 06-08-2009, 04:12 AM.

                          Comment


                            #28
                            Originally posted by rretch View Post
                            I'll give you the quick version.

                            If the DX, for example, is rising and the open interest is rising, this indicates a bullish interest on the DX. Higher open interest numbers indicate more contracts being written between two people. If DX is rising, on the other hand, and open interest is falling, this indicates fewer contract writes and is a bearish DX.

                            DX price falling and open interest falling = Bullish Dollar
                            DX price falling and open interest rising = Bearish Dollar

                            that's the quick and easy of it.
                            Have you done any backtesting to test this theory?

                            When a contract is written there is one party bullish and the other bearish. So if the dollar is rising and open interest is rising we could say there are more bearish (and bullish) people entering the game. Commercials usually sell while price is going up until they eventually cap the rally, with speculators taking the other side. So the increase in open interest could be considered a negative thing.

                            I haven't studied it at all, mostly because most data providers don't have it. It'd be interesting to do some backtesting.

                            Comment


                              #29
                              Originally posted by cunparis View Post
                              Have you done any backtesting to test this theory?

                              When a contract is written there is one party bullish and the other bearish.
                              So if the dollar is rising and open interest is rising we could say there are more bearish (and bullish) people entering the game.
                              Commercials usually sell while price is going up until they eventually cap the rally, with speculators taking the other side. So the increase in open interest could be considered a negative thing.

                              I haven't studied it at all, mostly because most data providers don't have it. It'd be interesting to do some backtesting.
                              No, I haven't been able to backtest this (due to the application)...but this may explain it more precisely:

                              http://www.investopedia.com/articles.../02/110602.asp

                              Comment


                                #30
                                Originally posted by rretch View Post
                                No, I haven't been able to backtest this (due to the application)...but this may explain it more precisely:

                                http://www.investopedia.com/articles.../02/110602.asp
                                Thank you for the link. The article is very interesting, it will take me some time to study it and see if I can do some tests. What I get is to look for divergence. Trend up & OI down. This could be programmed using a simple moving average and comparing the slopes.

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