As discussed in my earlier post, my strategy heavily utilizes pivots.
My strategy seeks to do this: When the price comes within 10 pips of a Pivot Resistance level (along with confirmation from some other trending conditions), I sell. When the price comes within 10 pips of a Pivot Support level (along with confirmation), I buy. I don't trade off the central pivot at all.
How I tried to do this: I sought to do this by specifying a 20 pip range within the price must lie (using the condition builder). You can see in my strategy that in condition sets 6,7 and 8 (for trading Resistances R1, R2 and R3), I have specified that Price < Rn + 10 ticks and Price > Rn - 10 ticks as conditions (using the offset parameter). The desired effect of these two conditions was to create a trade condition which would be met if the price lay within 10 pips on either side of the relevant pivot.
I have done the same in condition sets 1, 2 and 3 for trading Supports.
The problem: I ran the strategy today, and got fills at levels ridiculously far from the pivots. On the EURUSD chart you see below, I was filled a shocking 90 pips from R1! On the USDCAD chart, I was filled 30 pips below R1! (Both from shorting Resistance levels. Long trades were not triggered today)
Could you suggest a possible explanation for the problem?
My Hypothesis 1: My hunch on why the problem arose is that in trading Forex, 1 "tick" as defined (whether by NT or by my datafeed provider Barchart) is not equal to 1 pip, but something crazy, like 1 cent. If that is indeed the root of the problem, it would explain why my strategy seemingly ignored the pivot levels which I specified! Alarmed, I stopped the strategies and flattened the positions before the parabolic SAR stop was triggered.
My Hypothesis 2: Another hypothesis I have is regarding the use of -10 ticks, which might not be a valid condition for some reason I don't yet know.
My Hypothesis 3: A third hypothesis is that the pivots showing on my charts are different from the pivots calculated in the algo. However, I have already taken all precautions against that happening by specifying the same session convention in the chart and in my strategy (FOREX option chosen). I also made sure that I selected daily bars for both, and cross checked that the chart pivot values tallied pivot values provided by Bloomberg. I really don't think the problem lies here.
These are my three hypotheses (all of which could be wrong!) Please help me shed some light on the matter! I hope you can help me resolve this issue like you did earlier. Thanks!
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