is this good or bad?

[marcopicos]

well, I am with a demo, trying my own trading system (2 years of investigations, changes, frustration, even 1 month with a real account loosing money...) and this last 2 months I started to improve very much. I don't know if this is just casual or my system is really good (I hope so). I show you the profit curve since March 31. I started very good but then I tried to change things and my trading went very bad, so I began again with my system without those changes, and in 3 days I recovered what I have lost in 3 weeks. What do you think?

My system is very simple, I don't use indicators, I only look for pin-bars. My profit is at some resistance or support level very far (30-40 ticks). 1 Hour chart. Maximum 4 trades every day (usually I do 1 or 2, even nothing if there is noise in the market).

[NinjaTrader_CalH]

Hello Marcopicos,

This looks like a great question for our other users to answer for you.

I'll leave this thread open for any other users to reply here.

Let me know if I can be of further assistance.

[sledge]

. What do you think?
.

If you started on 4/12 you would have lost $4,000 before regaining $3,000.

You should test longer periods than the current contract month.

[koganam]

well, I am with a demo, trying my own trading system (2 years of investigations, changes, frustration, even 1 month with a real account loosing money...) and this last 2 months I started to improve very much. I don't know if this is just casual or my system is really good (I hope so). I show you the profit curve since March 31. I started very good but then I tried to change things and my trading went very bad, so I began again with my system without those changes, and in 3 days I recovered what I have lost in 3 weeks. What do you think?

My system is very simple, I don't use indicators, I only look for pin-bars. My profit is at some resistance or support level very far (30-40 ticks). 1 Hour chart. Maximum 4 trades every day (usually I do 1 or 2, even nothing if there is noise in the market).

There is not enough information here to make a judgement. We would need to see the other trade statistics: number of trades; distribution of trades; win/loss size ratio, maximum adverse excursion. et.c.,

[raymondpaynter]

its not good and not bad its a normal situation..

discover more

[marcopicos]

here are the data of my trading

[koganam]

here are the data of my trading

On the face of it, those statistics look good. Your statistics demonstrate how a low win rate can still be profitable, and why questions about the absolute winning rate really points to an immature trader.

But, do you really have the fortitude to trade a system that produces 3 losses for every win? Especially in the face of a potential 20 consecutive losers, as shown by your current statistics. That is the real question.

[marcopicos]

that's my problem. I don't know if this 20 consecutive looses are normal in a trading account, or having 3 bad trades for every good one is good or bad. With my strategy, every winning trade has a very high profit that gives me the benefits. If my final goal is to get profit, my system works. But I don't like having so much bad trades. What are the 'normal' numbers for a good trading system? how many consecutive bad trades? how many bad trades for every good one?

[sledge]

that's my problem. I don't know if this 20 consecutive looses are normal in a trading account, or having 3 bad trades for every good one is good or bad. With my strategy, every winning trade has a very high profit that gives me the benefits. If my final goal is to get profit, my system works. But I don't like having so much bad trades. What are the 'normal' numbers for a good trading system? how many consecutive bad trades? how many bad trades for every good one?

Like I mentioned earlier. ..

[koganam]

that's my problem. I don't know if this 20 consecutive looses are normal in a trading account, or having 3 bad trades for every good one is good or bad. With my strategy, every winning trade has a very high profit that gives me the benefits. If my final goal is to get profit, my system works. But I don't like having so much bad trades. What are the 'normal' numbers for a good trading system? how many consecutive bad trades? how many bad trades for every good one?

Sorry, but there is no "normal". The only measure is your personal willingness of what you will tolerate. It is possible to have systems with win rates of less than 50% which are profitable: it just depends on the net returns. But it also means that the trader has to be willing to accept that there will be more losing trades than winning ones. On the other hand, it is even easier to design systems with high winning rates that lose money overall because the few large losses obliterate the many small wins. It is all a matter of choice, and what your personal psychology can accept.

As a frame of reference, it is now well known that, in fact, the arguably, most famous trading system/group ever, actually used a system with a very poor winning ratio: one that has been put anywhere between 20% and 30% (about as low as yours). However, they were also willing to sit and take large drawdowns or accept large retracements that lost unrealized gains, all in order to stay in the trend for the big ones. I am referring to the Turtle Traders. Then again, they were very long term traders, with large capital behind them, so that system MAY or may not be viable for smaller accounts, and is almost certainly not viable if you do not have the time or wherewithal to wait out large drawdowns.

The point I am making, is that you may be asking the wrong question. The correct question to ask is: "Who am I, and what am I willing to tolerate, to get the kind of returns that I can expect?" If you cannot reconcile your intended returns to a system that you are comfortable trading, I am afraid that your real journey may never get started.

[marcopicos]

thanks for your ideas. I did'nt know about the turtle trading system, but now I see is quite similar to mine, I will read more about it. I think I will continue in demo, trying my method and avoiding trading when the market is not in the "good places". I am confident of my system, I know that when I have a good trade, I will follow it until 100 or more ticks, and this single trade can balance my previous bad trades. But I would like to have less trades, much less.