Trade Performance....Probability vs. Percent Profitability what's the diff. ?

[Satori2Trade]

Looking at the Trade performance window ..... Can someone please explain the difference between the Probability (marked with white arrows ) and Percent Profitability? ( ones with yellow arrows . ) Please see the attached pic. for details. also, is there a rule of thumb as far as a good percentage to be considered as a good trader?

Thank you.

[NinjaTrader_ChrisL]

Hello Satori2Trade,

Thanks for the post.

The definition of probability can be found here.

The % profitable property is the number of trades that you took that were profitable. In this case 94 out of 136 trades.

Please let me know if I can assist further.

[demo166130]

So what can it be best used to understand? It's clearly relevant, but how can it be ulitilized and understood?

[NinjaTrader_ChrisL]

Hello demo166130,

Thanks for the reply.

The help guide defines Probability as follows:

... This is based on how many trade's PnL fall within a standard deviation of the Avg. trade.

And the Average Trade definition can be found on the same page:

https://ninjatrader.com/support/helpGuides/nt8/en-us/?statistics_definitions.htm#UnderstandingAverageTrade

Please let me know if I can assist further.

[demo166130]

Would you be able to explain in the most simplistic terms possible the meaning of the word probability in the context of the Strategy Anaylzer. I understand the meaning of the word but do not fully understand it's meaning in this context, even after looking at your official definition.

[NinjaTrader_ChrisL]

Hello demo166130,

Thank you for the reply.

In the context of the strategy analyzer, it is the measure of how probable it is for any given trade in the collection to result in a profit/loss near your average PnL. If your trades have erratic PnL, the lower the probability that the trades you make will result in a number close to your average PnL.

Please let me know if I can assist further.