Meaning of Probability in context of Strategy Analyzer

[demo166130]

In the simplest way possible, could you explain what a high or low reading actually means. I've looked at the offiicial definition according to NinjaTrader and it isn't exactly registering.

Thanks

[NinjaTrader_JoshG]

Hello demo166130,
Thanks for your post.

What definition for probability are you referring to? The only official definition I see mentions "Student's t-distribution" as what is used to determine probability.

https://ninjatrader.com/support/helpGuides/nt8/en-us/?statistics_definitions.htm#UnderstandingProbability

[demo166130]

I'm talking about the definition you just posted a link to. Can you try and simplify it's meaning by saying 'if you have a high probability it means XYX, If it's low.... Really not fully understanding what it means.

[NinjaTrader_JoshG]

demo166130,

If you have a high probability it means it is more likely to happen. You can read more about Students t-distribution at the following publicly available link.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Student%27s_t-distribution

[demo166130]

I get the meaning of the word probability. The probability of what happening?

[NinjaTrader_JoshG]

According to the help guide it is the probability that a trade occurs that would return the same PnL as your Avg. trade.

[demo166130]

So a very low number would mean.......

[NinjaTrader_JoshG]

demo166130,

A very low number would mean there is very low probability that a trade occurs that would return the same PnL as your Avg. trade.

[demo166130]

Meaning the types of trade taking place in the period analyzed are outliers?

[NinjaTrader_JoshG]

demo166130, That is correct.