How good is it?

[plenamar27]

Hi!
Just to get some reference, how good is this Strategy from your point of view?
I am attaching the Strategy Performance Report.
Thanks!
Plenamar27

[NinjaTrader_Jesse]

Hello plenamar27,

While our support cannot provide guidance on what is considered good we can make suggestions on how to proceed further. If you find that the backtest results are to your liking the next step would be to run the script in one of the realtime modes and allow it to place sim trades in realtime. That would provide the most accurate depiction of how the strategy will work when you decide to use it on a live account.

[masilver]

Personally, I'd need to see a more granular breakdown of your P/L by week. I suspect you had some really profitable trades that are skewing the numbers. At least, that's the next step I'd take. Plus, if I had a nickel for every time I thought I cracked the market and would be eminently retiring, I'd have more money than from actual trading.

[jeronymite]

plenamar27 An interesting set of backtest results.

Some comments:

• 421 trades per day is "high" though fine for scalping 23x5 (avg 1 every 3.3 mins for NQ, with your avg time in market 3.11 mins)
• Drawdown could be significant @ > 14%
• Gross profit % figures look "a little off" and may reflect a small starting balance
• Margins will be relevant, particularly if you have a small starting balance. Perhaps look at using a Risk template?
• Commissions are zero, which will not be so in real trading. Perhaps also look at using a Commissions template?
• Backtesting just this year is fine ... but a longer timeframe is advisable if one is to be more robust in the variations of market that happen over time
• As NinjaTrader_Jesse suggests, test in Sim. After that, test with a brokerage demo account to see how realtime network and (pseudo-)market mechanics affect the results
• masilver has good points too, and seeing the equity curve and a more granular view will give you a better sense of the repeatability of the results in a reasonably predictable manner
• Also, just as noted by masilver, I was a "paper billionaire" many times over as I experimented with multiple approaches to trading early on. It's only as one does more realistic testing after good backtesting that one can validate the results.

Well done for starting this process though. Many would-be traders jump straight in after "10 minutes" of good results ... and are usually "deeply disappointed" very quickly and substantially "equity reduced". Continue to test with a significant degree of scepticism on your own part for any seemingly "too good to be true" results. They usually are that, and you'll need to prove them in a realtime environment. Keep going, but don't commit real funds until real world tests support the results.

Thanks.