﻿ Running a Monte Carlo Simulation
 Operations > Strategy Analyzer > Monte Carlo Simulation > Running a Monte Carlo Simulation

The following page covers how to set up and run NinjaTrader's Monte Carlo Simulation

 Understanding Monte Carlo simulation
 How to run a Monte Carlo simulation

Monte Carlo Simulation window

To open the Monte Carlo Simulation window:

 1 Run a Backtest, Optimization, Walk-Forward Optimization, or run an Account Performance report.
 2 Left mouse click on the Trades tab within any of the reports
 3 Right mouse click in the data grid and select the item Monte Carlo Simulation...

Running a Monte Carlo Simulation

To run a Monte Carlo Simulation:

 1 Open the Monte Carlo Simulation window (see sub-section above for how to open)
 2 Set desired simulation parameters and press the Generate button.

Monte Carlo Simulation Parameters

The following parameters are adjustable when running a Monte Carlo Simulation:

 Graph Sets the statistic to generate the report on Mode Sets the unit type the results are displayed in Winning/Losing Sets the results to show only winners, only loser, or both Long/Short Sets the results to show only long trades, only short trades, or both Remove winning outliers (%) Removes the top % outliers from the results Remove losing outliers (%) Removes the bottom % outliers from the results # of simulations Sets the # of simulations to run # of trades per simulation Sets the # of trades in each simulation (will default to the # of trades in the Trades tab)
 Understanding the Monte Carlo Simulation report
 Monte Carlo Simulation Report The results of the Monte Carlo Simulation are displayed in a graph below the parameters.     X-Axis The horizontal axis of the Monte Carlo Simulation graph shows the percentage of simulations that have fallen below the Y - axis value. For example, if you run a Monte Carlo Simulation setting the # of Simulations to "100" and using the Cumulative Profit graph, the intersection of the 50% X - value and the associated Y value means that 50 of your simulations will be below that cumulative profit/loss value, and oppositely the remaining 50 simulations will have a greater cumulative profit/loss. The above screenshot shows an example of a worst case scenario of the strategy losing \$5602.50 and a best case scenario with the strategy making \$2801.25. This type of report allows you to analyze if the risk/reward ratio between worst and best case scenarios is acceptable or not.   Y-Axis The vertical axis of the Monte Carlo Simulation graph displays the measured unit for the Graph item selected such as Profit/Loss, statistical information, or time.