Futures Trading Outlook: Reviewing Last Week's Price Actions and Trends

By NinjaTrader

Coverage for the week of February 6th - February 10th: This week we review how the results of last week’s price actions and trends that began at the beginning of the year are shaking out. Read more.

E-Mini Russell 2000 Futures Weekly Chart

The E-mini Russell followed through on the cross above the 52-Week Moving Average, reinforcing a bullish trend that began at the beginning of the year. The MACD ticked up into positive territory, another bullish indication that complements the positive MACD histogram. Last week’s price action also overcame the 38% Fibonacci retracement resistance level (as defined by the high in November 2021 to the lows in October 2022). Taking out the high from August (2054.2) will be a big step back to a bullish trend, as it would indicate that swing highs are higher not lower. Possible resistance at 2066.8 (50% Fib retracement level). Should this market pull back, support may be found at 1880 – 1850.

Crude Oil Futures Weekly Chart

Crude Oil futures have been range bound sideways since the beginning of December in the 70 – 84 range. This corresponds to the cross below the 52-Week moving average, typically a bearish indication.  The lack of a directional trend after that cross has resulted in a neutral MACD. Should the market rebound, resistance could occur at 81 (38% Fib retracement from June 2022 highs), 87.75 (38% Fib retracement) and at the 52-week moving average (89.38 at current reading).

10-Year Note Futures Weekly Chart

The 10-Year Note futures, in bull mode since October 2022, are having some difficulty staying above 114-20 (which corresponds to the lows in June). This aligns with the 38% Fibonacci retracement level found by tracing the highs in August 2022 to the lows in October. The MACD Histogram reflects the current bull trend and shows that the trend may be slowing, if ever so slightly. Toward the upside, possible resistance areas are 115-24 (50% Fib retracement) and 117-17 (52-week moving average).  Support at 112-08 is possible should this pull back continue.

Corn Futures Weekly Chart

Corn futures have been in a bullish trend since summer of 2020, with price crossing the 52-week moving average in October of that same year. Since then, price has tested the moving average as support in July of last year and has been ongoing since November. The MACD is neutral on determining a trend, as corn has traded in a tight range of 635 – 701 since September. A resistance area of 690 – 700 exists as evidenced by the wicks in September and October as well as the 61% Fibonacci retracement level.  Should price cross below the moving average, the 38% Fib retracement at 640 could be near-term support.

Economic Reports for the week of February 6th – February 10th

As is usually the case after a Fed announcement, Federal Reserve Bank VIPs make public appearances to discuss the economy among other topics. Chair Jerome Powell speaks at the Economic Club of Washington D.C. on Tuesday, which could spark some volatility in the futures markets. Governor Waller has two appearances this week – the one on Wednesday will focus on the agribusiness economy, and Friday’s is all about digital currency. Jobless claims on Thursday will be interesting to watch coming on the heels of a hot non-farm payrolls report this past Friday. Stock index futures could see minor reactions to Wholesale inventories (Wednesday) and University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment report (Friday).
*** = Most impactful reports
* = Somewhat impactful reports
^ = Housing-related reports

Date Economic Reports
Monday, February  6th 11:00 AM ET: Export Inspections @usda
12:30 PM ET: Investor Movement Index @TDAmeritrade
Tuesday, February 7th 8:30 AM ET: International Trade in Goods and Services @BEA_news
12:40 PM ET: New York Federal Reserve Bank Chair Jerome Powell Speech***
3:00 PM ET: Consumer Credit
Wednesday, February 8th 7:00 AM ET: MBA Mortgage Applications
9:20 AM ET: New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams Speech
10:00 AM ET: Wholesale Inventories (Preliminary)*
10:30 AM ET: EIA Petroleum Status Report
12:00 PM ET: USDA Supply/Demand: Cotton, Corn, Soybean, Wheat
12:00 PM ET: Crop Production
1:45 PM ET: Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller Speech
Thursday, February 9th 8:30 AM ET: Export Sales
8:30 AM ET: Jobless Claims***
10:30 AM ET: EIA Natural Gas Report
4:30 PM ET: Fed Balance Sheet
Friday, February 10th 10:00 AM ET: Consumer Sentiment*
12:30 PM ET: Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller Speech
1:00 PM ET: Baker Hughes Rig Count
2:00 PM ET: Treasury Statement
4:00 PM ET: Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Patrick Harker Speech

Companies Reporting Earnings for the week of January 30th – February 3rd

Walt Disney represents the only company reporting from the Dow Jones Index on Wednesday afternoon, the impact of which could potentially carry through to YM futures at the open on Thursday morning.  Healthcare/pharmaceutical companies well-represented this week with CVS, AbbVie and AstraZeneca reporting Wednesday and Thursday. NASDQ futures could show some reaction to reports from AstraZeneca, Pepsi and PayPal. Foreign car manufacturers Toyota and Honda report towards the end of the week.
BMO = Before Market Open
AMC = After Market Close

Date Earnings Reports
Monday, February 6th Tyson Foods Inc. (TSN): $1.43 EPS Estimate, $13.10B Revenue Estimate (BMO)
Activision Blizzard, Inc. (ATVI): $1.38 EPS Estimate, $3.17B Revenue Estimate (AMC)
Tuesday, February 7th Aramark Holdings Corp. (ARMK): $0.42 EPS Estimate, $4.53B Revenue Estimate (BMO)
BP plc (BP): $1.65 EPS Estimate, $53.79B Revenue Estimate (BMO)
DuPont (DD): $0.79 EPS Estimate, $3.08 B Revenue Estimate (AMC)
Prudential Financial, Inc. (PRU): $2.57 EPS Estimate, $12.78B Revenue Estimate (AMC)
Wednesday, February 8th CVS Health (CVS): $1.92 EPS Estimate, $74.97B Revenue Estimate (BMO)
Fox Corporation (FOXA): $0.47 EPS Estimate, $4.59B Revenue Estimate (BMO)
UBER Technologies, Inc. (UBER): ($0.21) EPS Estimate, $8.46B Revenue Estimate (BMO)
Goodyear Tire and Rubber Company (GT): 0.17 EPS Estimate, $5.20B Revenue Estimate (AMC)
Walt Disney Co (DIS): $0.80 EPS Estimate, $23.33B Revenue Estimate (AMC)
Thursday, February 9th AbbVie Inc. (ABBV): $3.54 EPS Estimate, $15.31B Revenue Estimate (BMO)
AstraZeneca PLC (AZN): $0.71 EPS Estimate, $11.38B Revenue Estimate (BMO)
PepsiCo, Inc. (PEP): $1.64 EPS Estimate, $26.58B Revenue Estimate (BMO)
Philip Morris International (PM): $1.29 EPS Estimate, $7.58B Revenue Estimate (BMO)
Toyota Motor Corp (TM): $3.66 EPS Estimate, $68.13B Revenue Estimate (BMO)
Expedia, Inc. (EXPE): $1.63 EPS Estimate, $12.69B Revenue Estimate (AMC)
PayPal (PYPL): $1.19 EPS Estimate, $7.39B Revenue Estimate (AMC)
Friday, February 10th Honda Motor Co., Ltd. (HMC): $0.95 EPS Estimate, $33.02B Revenue Estimate (BMO)

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