Coverage for the week of April 17th - April 21st: As we pass the midway point of April, our analysts have provided insight into what to expect for Micro NASDAQ 100, natural gas, micro Bitcoin and copper futures. Our futures trading experts also dive into the numerous company reports and economic reports being released this week and to which reports to pay special attention.
Micro NASDAQ 100 Future Daily Chart
The Micro NASDAQ 100 Future saw resistance in the 13200 – 13250 level last week as evidence of consolidation continues. This is slightly north of the 50% retracement from the highs one year ago to the lows in October. RSI has cooled since peaking near the overbought level two weeks ago, though still pointing towards the bullish end at 58.5. The MACD indicator is neutral to slightly bullish – a move to the upside in price could make MACD signal a bullish trend more decisively. Should the NASDAQ resume an uptrend, look for a target of 13745 (61.8% Fib retracement level). A downward trend might see support at the 50-day moving average, which could reinforce the 38.2% Fib retracement level at 12600.
May Natural Gas Future Daily Chart
Natural Gas (NG) continues its downward trajectory that began after hitting a high of 11.124 last August. Lows were able to break the 2.00 shelf but did not close below that level before finishing around the 2.12 area. The MACD is consistent with a bear market in that the MACD line is below zero, and while there may be a cross above the signal line, it doesn’t stay above for too long before crossing back below. The RSI has a slight indication of divergence – the peak lows on the RSI are increasing while the lows on NG are decreasing. If the trend is turning bullish, look for resistance at the 50-day moving average (~2.50) and the Ichimoku cloud (2.70 to 2.50 area).
Micro Bitcoin Future Daily Chart
April Micro Bitcoin futures continue to rally as price has retraced 50% from the highs one year ago to the lows in November. Price has been trading above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages since mid-March, the same time it climbed out of the Ichimoku cloud. RSI at 65 indicates that this trend has a little bit more to go to get to overbought, though slightly lower peaks in the RSI while Micro Bitcoin price has higher peaks could indicate bearish divergence. A continuation of the bull trend could see resistance at 32000 (an area of resistance from May of last year as well as a psychological number). If trend reverses to the downside, look for support at the 50% Fib retracement level (29125).
May Copper Future Daily Chart
Copper futures have been in a 50-cent trading range since January, trading between 3.80 and 4.30, with price currently halfway between those borders at 4.11. Price did break out of the Ichimoku cloud to the upside last week, generally seen as a bullish move. Another bullish indication last week occurred when price crossed above the 50-day moving average. RSI is trending up, with room to go to get to overbought levels. The MACD just turned positive and crossed above its signal line, both are bullish indications. Resistance might be found at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level from highs a year ago to lows last July (4.20). Support may be found in the 4.05 – 4.10 area in the Ichimoku cloud and the 50-day moving average.
Economic Reports for the week of April 17th – April 21st
Thursday is a busy economic report day as jobless claims, Export Sales, Leading Indicators and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index all drop at 8:30 am ET. Housing reports drop nearly every day, with the Housing market Index on Monday, Housing Starts and Permits on Tuesday, the weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report on Wednesday and Existing Home Sales on Thursday. On the crude oil front, API’s Weekly Oil Stocks Tuesday night could give some foresight into the next day’s EIA Petroleum report – which can introduce some volatility in the crude oil (CL) and gasoline (RB) futures markets. Speaking engagements by Federal Reserve presidents include Richmond Fed president Thomas Barkin (Monday), New York Fed president John Williams (Wednesday) and Cleveland Fed president Loretta Mester (Thursday). Note that this may not include all Federal Reserve appearances next week, and that market volatility can increase when these speakers comment on the economy and Fed policy. The Beige Book on Wednesday afternoon is a report on the economic conditions that the Fed looks at when making policy – with the next announcement on the Fed’s decision on interest rates nearing (May 3rd), this report can be a speculative view into what the Fed will do.
*** Market Moving Indicators* Merit Extra Attention
| Date | Economic Reports |
|---|---|
| Monday, April 17th | 8:30 AM ET: Empire State Manufacturing Index* 10:00 AM ET: Housing Market Index* 11:00 AM ET: Export Inspections 12:00 PM ET: US: Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin Speaks 4:00 PM ET: US: Crop Progress 4:00 PM ET: Treasury International Capital |
| Tuesday, April 18th | 8:30 AM ET: Housing Starts and Permits 4:30 PM ET: API Weekly Oil Stocks |
| Wednesday, April 19th | 7:00 AM ET: MBA Mortgage Applications 10:30 AM ET: EIA Petroleum Status Report*** 2:00 PM ET: Beige Book 7:00 PM ET: New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams Speaks |
| Thursday, April 20th | 7:30 AM ET EMU: ECB Minutes 8:30 AM ET: Export Sales 8:30 AM ET: Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index 8:30 AM ET: Jobless Claims*** 8:30 AM ET: Leading Indicators 10:00 AM ET: Existing Home Sales 10:30 AM ET: EIA Natural Gas Report* 12:20 PM ET: Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Loretta Mester @ClevelandFed 4:30 PM ET: Fed Balance Sheet 5:00 PM ET: Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic Speaks |
| Friday, April 21st | 9:45 AM ET: PMI Composite Flash* 1:00 PM ET: Baker Hughes Rig Count 3:00 PM ET: Cattle On Feed |
Companies Reporting Earnings for the week of April 17th – April 21st
Six companies in the Dow Jones Index report earnings this week, with Goldman Sachs and Johnson & Johnson reporting Tuesday before market open—be alert for possible price movement in the E-Mini Dow futures (YM) Tuesday morning. Banks and Financial services are the focus this week, with Schwab, M&T Bank and State Street Bank reporting Monday morning; Bank of America, Bank of New York and Goldman Tuesday morning; Morgan Stanley, Travelers, U.S. Bancorp and Discover on Wednesday; and American Express on Thursday. Pay attention to the guidance for the banking sector, as they could give guidance into economic outlook for 2023. Telecommunication companies Nokia and AT&T report on Thursday. Keep an eye on NASDAQ futures (MNQ) after market close on Tuesday and Wednesday as Netflix and Tesla report on those days.
* indicates that this company is in the Dow Jones Index| Date | Earnings Reports |
|---|---|
| Monday, April 17th | Charles Schwab Corp. (SCHW): $0.91 EPS Estimate, $5.21B Revenue Estimate (BMO) M&T Bank Corp. (MTB): $4.03 EPS Estimate, $2.38B Revenue Estimate (BMO) State Street Corp. (STT): $1.62 EPS Estimate, $3.12B Revenue Estimate (BMO) J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc. (JBHT): $2.05 EPS Estimate, $3.44B Revenue Estimate, (AMC) |
| Tuesday, April 18th | Bank of America Corp. (BAC): $0.79 EPS Estimate, $25.57B Revenue Estimate (BMO) Bank of New York Mellon Corporation (BK): $1.09 EPS Estimate, $4.41B Revenue Estimate (BMO) Goldman Sachs (GS): $8.14 EPS Estimate, $13.08B Revenue Estimate (BMO)* Johnson & Johnson (JNJ): $2.51 EPS Estimate, $23.67B Revenue Estimate (BMO)* Lockheed Martin Corp. (LMT): $6.08 EPS Estimate, $15.08B Revenue Estimate (BMO) Netflix, Inc. (NFLX): $2.81 EPS Estimate, $8.17B Revenue Estimate (AMC) United Airlines (UAL): ($0.76) EPS Estimate, $11.46B Revenue Estimate (AMC) |
| Wednesday, April 19th | Abbott (ABT): $0.98 EPS Estimate, $9.63B Revenue Estimate (BMO) Morgan Stanley (MS): $1.67 EPS Estimate, $14.14B Revenue Estimate (BMO) Travelers Companies, Inc. (TRV): $3.74 EPS Estimate, $9.19B Revenue Estimate (BMO)* U.S. Bancorp (USB): $1.13 EPS Estimate, $7.16B Revenue Estimate (BMO) Alcoa, Inc. (AA): ($0.05) EPS Estimate, $2.74B Revenue Estimate (AMC) Discover Financial Services (DFS): $3.92 EPS Estimate, $3.67B Revenue Estimate (AMC) IBM (IBM): $1.27 EPS Estimate, $14.36B Revenue Estimate (AMC)* Tesla, Inc. (TSLA): $0.85 EPS Estimate, $23.37B Revenue Estimate (AMC) |
| Thursday, April 20th | American Express Co. (AXP): $2.66 EPS Estimate, $14.04B Revenue Estimate (BMO)* AT&T Corp. (T): $0.58 EPS Estimate, $30.27B Revenue Estimate (BMO) Nokia Corp. (NOK): $0.09 EPS Estimate, $6.21B Revenue Estimate (BMO) Union Pacific Corp. (UNP): $2.59 EPS Estimate, $6.10B Revenue Estimate (BMO) CSX Corp. (CSX): $0.43 EPS Estimate, $3.58B Revenue Estimate (AMC) |
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