In this week’s coverage, we analyze the consolidation in crude oil futures and rallies in E-mini Dow Jones, copper, and euro FX futures. We also examine the economic and earnings reports expected next week.
Commentary and charts reflect data at the time of writing. Market conditions are subject to change and may not reflect all market activity.
December E-Mini Dow Jones Index Futures Daily Chart
December E-mini Dow Jones Index futures completed a run of five consecutive up candles with the close above the 50-day moving average on Friday. RSI gave a bullish indication at the beginning of the week as did MACD on Wednesday by crossing above its signal line. Should the V shaped recovery continue in price, look for resistance areas at the 61.8% retracement of the downward trend that started in August and ended last week (~34,230), and at the 200-day moving average (~34,385). A downside reversal might find support at the 50% (~33,883) Fibonacci retracement level as well as the 38.2% Fib level (~33,535).
December Crude Oil Futures Weekly Chart
December crude oil futures continued its bearish track as it emerged on the downside of the positive sloping Ichimoku cloud. RSI shows a downward trend that fits in line with price, and at 42 has room to run for the oversold level of 30. MACD is trending negative after the bearish trigger that occurred on October 24 as it entered the Ichimoku cloud. Should this bearish trend continue, look for support at the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the trend that began June 28 and ended September 28 (79.14). Further support might be found at the 200-day moving average, which coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci level. In an uptrend, resistance might be found at the 38.2% Fib level (82.56) and above that the bottom of the Ichimoku cloud (~84.60).
December Copper Futures Weekly Chart
December copper futures rallied last week, finding resistance at the 50-day moving average. Friday’s close occurred just above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the downtrend that started on September 1 and ended on October 23. RSI shows no sign of divergence and is trending with price. MACD is set to go positive after a bullish signal that occurred at the recent low on October 23. Should this bullish trend continue, resistance might be found at the 50% Fib retracement level (3.7140) and above that the bottom of the Ichimoku cloud (~3.7350). If the 50-day moving average continues as resistance and the market turns down, support might be found at the 23.6% Fib retracement level (3.6113).
December Euro FX Futures Daily Chart
December euro FX futures had a rally on Friday that accomplished three things: it crossed above the 50-day moving average, closed into the Ichimoku cloud, and broke out of the upper part of the slowly ascending trend channel. The RSI is mimicking price behavior, and with a reading of 60, has room to go before touching the overbought level of 70. MACD gave a bullish signal back in early October but is still negative. If the rally continues, look for resistance at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the downtrend that started on July 18 and ended on October 3 (~1.0815). A reversal may find support at the 50-day moving average (~1.0670) and further at the bottom of the trend channel (~1.0545).
Companies Reporting Earnings November 6 – November 10
Over 1,100 companies report earnings this week, and as most of them are considered small caps, don’t expect much volatility due to earnings releases for the S&P 500 nor the Nasdaq 100 futures.
The Berkshire Hathaway earnings call could be informative, as Warren Buffet, the Oracle of Omaha, might provide insight on the state of the economy for Q4 and next year. Tuesday’s biggest earnings reports could be tech companies Uber and eBay. The lone Dow Jones stock reports Wednesday afternoon in Disney, which could influence the YM market after regular trading hours.
Warner Brothers and Sony might shed some light on the entertainment industry, and Brazil’s oil company Petrobras reports Thursday morning. That report may contain opinions on the outlook of the energy market, which could influence CL and RB.
|Monday, November 6||Berkshire Hathaway, Inc. (BRK.B): $4.74 EPS Estimate (BMO)|
|Tuesday, November 7||Uber Technologies, Inc. (UBER): $0.13 EPS Estimate, $8.99B Revenue Estimate (BMO)
eBay, Inc. (EBAY): $0.77 EPS Estimate, $2.36B Revenue Estimate (AMC)
|Wednesday, November 8||Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc (WBD): $-0.09 EPS Estimate, $10.04B Revenue Estimate (BMO)
Kellanova (K): $0.93 EPS Estimate, $3.62B Revenue Estimate (BMO)
Walt Disney Co (DIS): $0.68 EPS Estimate, $20.13B Revenue Estimate (AMC) *
|Thursday, November 9||Sony Group Corporation (SONY): $1.19 EPS Estimate, $19.31B Revenue Estimate (BMO)
Petrobras (PBR): $0.90 EPS Estimate, $24.70B Revenue Estimate (BMO)
|Friday, November 10||N/A|
* indicates that this company is in the Dow Jones Index
Economic Reports for the week of November 6 – November 10
This week is shaping up to be a relatively light economic news week, though Federal Reserve speakers make up for that absence of news. Tuesday we'll see Fed speakers from the Kansas City, New York, and Dallas Federal Reserve Bank, all speaking during regular trading hours. Tuesday looks like a light day for the Fed as only New York Fed President John Williams speaks.
Thursday sees Raphael Bostic (Atlanta), Thomas Barkin (Richmond), and interim president for the Saint Louis Federal Reserve Bank Kathleen O'Neill Paese, speaking all within regular trading hours as well.
Friday's Fed activity occurs before the market open with Lorie Logan speaking at 7:30 AM ET and Bostic speaking at 9:00 AM. Other impactful economic reports occur on Thursday at 8:30 AM with Jobless Claims and later that day at noon we have the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates for the agricultural market. Please note that at any time Federal Reserve members could have unscheduled speaking engagements and their comments can possibly move markets.
|Monday, November 6||11:00 AM ET: Export Inspections
4:00 PM ET: Crop Progress
|Tuesday, November 7||8:30 AM ET: International Trade in Goods and Services
9:50 AM ET: Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank President Jeffrey Schmid Speech
12:00 PM ET: New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams Speech
1:30 PM ET: Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lorie Logan Speech
3:00 PM ET: Consumer Credit
4:30 PM ET: API Weekly Oil Stocks
|Wednesday, November 8||7:00 AM ET: MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET: Bank Reserve Settlement
10:00 AM ET: Wholesale Inventories (Preliminary) *
10:30 AM ET: EIA Petroleum Status Report *
1:40 PM ET: New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams Speech
|Thursday, November 9||8:30 AM ET: Export Sales
8:30 AM ET: Jobless Claims ***
9:30 AM ET: Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic Speech
10:30 AM ET: EIA Natural Gas Report *
11:00 AM ET: Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin Speech
12:00 PM ET: Crop Production
12:00 PM ET: USDA Supply/Demand - Cotton, Corn, Wheat, Soybean ***
12:00 PM ET: St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank Interim President Kathleen O'Neill Paese Speech
4:30 PM ET: Fed Balance Sheet
|Friday, November 10||7:30 AM ET: Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lorie Logan Speech
9:00 AM ET: Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic Speech
10:00 AM ET: Consumer Sentiment *
1:00 PM ET: Baker Hughes Rig Count
2:00 PM ET: Treasury Statement
*** Market Moving Indicators
* Merit Extra Attention
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