Futures Trading Outlook: Silver Futures Turn Down for the Week

By NinjaTrader Team

In this week’s coverage, we analyze the small rally in the E-mini Russell 2000 Index, and the downtrend in silver futures. We also examine the economic reports expected next week. 

Please Note: 
Commentary and charts reflect data at the time of writing (Friday, June 28 at 1 PM ET), and market conditions may change by the publication of this analysis.

September E-mini Russell 2000 Index Futures Weekly Chart  

September E-mini Russell 2000 Index futures got a bit of a lift last week as economic data, most notably the PCE report on Friday, suggested the possibility of the Fed easing rates sooner than later. The Russell just couldn’t get above the anchored yearly VWAP nor the 26-week moving average, and constricting Bollinger bands suggest a tight, sideways market with a range of 100 points has been in effect for about a month now. The MACD histogram is slightly negative, while the MACD is still positive, which points to no decision as to whether buyers or sellers are in control. The RSI (at 51) is about as indecisive as you can get, as its trajectory is flat (reflecting recent price action). Should this two-week rally gain traction, look for resistance at the 23.6% Fib level (~2,073) and further up at the recent high of 2,187. A turn back down suggest support at the 38.2% Fib level (~2,002) and the 50% Fib level (~1,945). 

E-mini Russell 2000 Index futuresSeptember E-mini Russell 2000 Index futures weekly chart

September Silver Futures Weekly Chart

September silver futures closed down for the week, trading just above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level (29.136) of the prior uptrend that began mid-February. While silver is trading above its 26-week moving average and the anchored yearly VWAP, there are signs that this recent uptrend may be stalling. The Bollinger bands are beginning to turn back in, which can be an indication that volatility is decreasing, and mean reversion might be in play. The MACD is poised to cross below its signal line, which would indicate possible price weakness. The RSI showed bearish divergence in April and May, where silver was making new highs while RSI peaks remained around 70 before turning down. This often indicates price weakness as well. Should the downtrend continue, look for support at the 50% Fib retracement level (~27.93), which also was an area of resistance at the beginning of 2023. A bounce off the 38.2% Fib level might find resistance at the 23.6% Fib level (~30.63).

Silver futuresSeptember silver futures weekly chart

Economic Reports for the week of July 1 - 5

The two main topics for this week are labor and manufacturing. Monday sees manufacturing reports from SPGlobal and ISM, with SPGlobal forecast to remain unchanged at 51.7 (expansionary) and the ISM number to improve to 49.2 (though still contractionary).

Factory Orders and Services PMI arrive Wednesday morning after market open. Those numbers have been expansionary and are forecast to pare back just a bit. The jobs numbers across the board are expected to be a little cooler than previous. The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) on Tuesday is forecast to decrease to 7.86M (from 8.06M the prior month, and Jobless Claims on Thursday are expected to rise to 235,000 (from 233k the previous week).

Non-farm Payrolls on Friday is expected to report an additional 189,000 jobs, down from the previous month’s 272k. Challenger Job-cuts and ADP Employment numbers also arrive on Wednesday. Fed speakers include Chair Jerome Powell on Tuesday morning and NY Fed Bank President John Williams on Wednesday and Friday. The U.S. observes Independence Day on Thursday, so the stock market will be closed, and futures trading will have shortened hours.

DateEconomic Reports
Monday, July 1 9:45 AM ET: PMI Manufacturing Final *
 10:00 AM ET: Construction Spending
 10:00 AM ET: ISM Manufacturing Index ***
 11:00 AM ET: Export Inspections
 3:00 PM ET: Grain Crushings
 3:00 PM ET: Fats and Oils
 4:00 PM ET: Crop Progress
Tuesday, July 2 9:30 AM ET: Fed Chair Jerome Powell ***
 10:00 AM ET: JOLTS *
 4:30 PM ET: API Weekly Oil Stocks
Wednesday, July 3 6:30 AM ET: New York Fed Bank President John Williams
 7:00 AM ET: MBA Mortgage Applications
 7:30 AM ET: Challenger Job-Cut Report
 8:15 AM ET: ADP Employment Report *
 8:30 AM ET: Jobless Claims ***
 8:30 AM ET: International Trade in Goods and Services
 9:45 AM ET: PMI Composite Final
 10:00 AM ET: Factory Orders
 10:00 AM ET: ISM Services Index *
 10:30 AM ET: EIA Petroleum Status Report *
 11:00 AM ET: EIA Natural Gas Report *
 2:00 PM ET: FOMC Minutes
Thursday, July 4Market Holiday: Independence Day
Friday, July 5 6:40 AM ET: New York Fed Bank President John Williams Speaks @NewYorkFed
 8:30 AM ET: Export Sales
 8:30 AM ET: Employment Situation ***
 1:00 PM ET: Baker Hughes Rig Count
 4:30 PM ET: Fed Balance Sheet

*** Market Moving Indicators
* Merit Extra Attention

Daily Futures Market Prep and Analysis With the Pros 

Interact with our experts and other futures traders during daily livestreams as we analyze the markets in real time and explore our award-winning desktop platform. Log in here.  

Trade Futures With Us 

Sign up for your free NinjaTrader account today to start your 14-day trial of live simulated futures trading.