In this week’s coverage, we analyze the bearish continuation in the natural gas futures and the pullback in the E-mini S&P 500 futures. We also examine the economic reports and earnings announcements expected next week.
Commentary and charts reflect data at the time of writing (Friday, July 26 at 1 PM ET), and market conditions may change by the publication of this analysis.
September E-Mini S&P 500 Index Futures Weekly Chart
September E-mini Dow Jones Index futures finished down for the second consecutive week, testing a supportive trendline that connects the lows from October 2023 and April 2024. This follows a bearish key reversal signal, where E-mini S&P futures traded back inside the upper Bollinger band. This pull back also tested the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the previous bullish move that started in April. Last week’s bearish move also caused the MACD to show a bearish cross, which follows a bearish RSI indication (RSI falling below 70). Should this bearish trend continue, support might be found at the 50% Fib retracement (~5,375), the 26-week moving average (~5,345) and further down at the 61.8% Fib retracement (~5,290). If the S&Ps rally, resistance could be found at the 23.6% Fib retracement (~5,555) and the upper Bollinger band (~5,660).
September E-mini S&P 500 Index futures weekly chart
September Natural Gas Futures Weekly Chart
September natural gas futures continued to trend lower, closing above the psychological level of 2.00. This places natural gas futures outside the lower 26-week Bollinger band, which could indicate further downside, or a mean reversion opportunity. With the bands at neither the widest nor narrowest separation, either price reaction is possible. Price is trending toward the lower edge of the trend channel that has been in place since October 2023, and well under a bearish Ichimoku cloud. The MACD recently showed a bearish cross, with the MACD continuing a downward path, confirming a bearish trending. While RSI (at 33) is nearing oversold territory, bullish RSI divergence could be in play as the trough lows on RSI are getting higher, while trough lows on price are getting lower. Should the current trend continue, look for 2.00 as possible support. A rally might experience resistance at the 26-week moving average (~2.62), which is near the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the downtrend that began in October 2023 (~2.60).
September natural gas futures weekly chart
Companies Reporting Earnings July 29 - August 2
Four of the Magnificent Seven stocks report earnings this week: Microsoft on Tuesday, Meta (Facebook) on Wednesday, and Apple and Amazon on Thursday (all reporting after market close).
S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 Index futures could experience some volatility after regular trading hours on those days. Non-Mag 7 companies in the Dow Jones reporting this week include McDonald’s on Monday morning, Procter & Gamble and Merck on Tuesday morning, Boeing on Wednesday morning, Intel on Thursday afternoon, and Chevron on Friday morning. YM and MYM traders should take notice at these times.
Oil companies also have their say this week: British Petroleum, Conoco Phillips, Phillips 66, Shell, and Exxon Mobil report pre-market throughout the week, and their outlooks for 2024-25 should be heeded by crude oil traders. Other notables reporting this week are Pfizer, Toyota Motor Corp, Humana Inc., and Advanced Micro Design.
| Date | Companies Earnings |
|---|---|
| Monday, July 29 | McDonalds Corp (MCD): $3.08 EPS Estimate, $6.66B Revenue Estimate (BMO) * |
| Tuesday, July 30 | PayPal (PYPL): $0.96 EPS Estimate, $7.78B Revenue Estimate (BMO) Pfizer (PFE): $0.46 EPS Estimate, $13.22B Revenue Estimate (BMO) BP p.l.c. (BP): $0.98 EPS Estimate, $62.44B Revenue Estimate (BMO) Procter & Gamble Co. (PG): $1.37 EPS Estimate, $20.78B Revenue Estimate (BMO) * Phillips 66 (PSX): $3.10 EPS Estimate, $32.01B Revenue Estimate (BMO) Archer-Daniels-Midland Co.: (ADM): $1.29 EPS Estimate, $23.24B Revenue Estimate (BMO) Merck & Co., Inc: (MRK): $2.15 EPS Estimate, $15.88B Revenue Estimate (BMO) * Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD): $0.67 EPS Estimate, $5.71B Revenue Estimate (AMC) Microsoft Corp. (MSFT): $2.90 EPS Estimate, $64.16B Revenue Estimate (AMC) * Starbucks Corp. (SBUX): $0.93 EPS Estimate, $9.24B Revenue Estimate (AMC) |
| Wednesday, July 31 | Boeing Co. (BA): $-1.68 EPS Estimate, $17.53B Revenue Estimate (BMO) * Humana, Inc. (HUM): $5.89 EPS Estimate, $28.61B Revenue Estimate (BMO) Mastercard Inc (MA): $3.51 EPS Estimate, $6.85B Revenue Estimate (BMO) T-Mobile US Inc. (TMUS): $2.27 EPS Estimate, $19.51B Revenue Estimate (BMO) Meta Platforms, Inc. (META): $4.69 EPS Estimate, $38.19B Revenue Estimate (AMC) eBay, Inc. (EBAY): $1.12 EPS Estimate, $2.53B Revenue Estimate (AMC) |
| Thursday, August 1 | ConocoPhillips (COP): $2.15 EPS Estimate, $15.27B Revenue Estimate (BMO) Toyota Motor Corp. (TM): $4.01 EPS Estimate, $72.48B Revenue Estimate (BMO) Shell plc (SHEL): $1.82 EPS Estimate, $88.62B Revenue Estimate (BMO) Anheuser-Busch InBev (BUD): $0.84 EPS Estimate, $15.21B Revenue Estimate (BMO) Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN): $1.02 EPS Estimate, $148.54B Revenue Estimate (AMC) * Apple, Inc. (AAPL): $1.33 EPS Estimate, $83.79B Revenue Estimate (AMC) * Intel Corp. (INTC): $0.10 EPS Estimate, $12.92B Revenue Estimate (AMC) * United States Steel Corp. (X): $0.76 EPS Estimate, $4.00B Revenue Estimate (AMC) Prudential Financial, Inc. (PRU): $3.43 EPS Estimate, $13.78B Revenue Estimate (AMC) |
| Friday, August 2 | Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM): $2.04 EPS Estimate, $91.69B Revenue Estimate (BMO) Chevron Corporation (CVX): $2.98 EPS Estimate, $51.60B Revenue Estimate (BMO) * |
* indicates that this company is in the Dow Jones Index
Economic Reports for the week of July 29 - August 2
The biggest story this week will be Wednesday’s FOMC announcement (and subsequent press conference featuring Chair Jerome Powell). The CME’s FedWatch probability matrix is indicating 88 percent probability that the Fed begins trimming rates in September. Expect higher-than-normal volatility when the Fed’s statement is released at 2 PM Eastern on Wednesday.
More volatility is possible at the 2:30 PM press conference. We will also experience a multitude of labor reports, with JOLTS on Tuesday, Jobless Claims on Thursday, and the Employment Situation on Friday. Other areas of the economy that are showcased this week include manufacturing (Dallas Fed on Monday, Chicago PMI on Wednesday, and ISM AND S&P Global reports on Thursday) and housing (Housing Prices from Case-Shiller and FHFA on Tuesday and Pending Home Sales on Wednesday).
Most of these reports are forecast to be flat or slightly up, with Chicago PMI the lone outlier–44.1 expected vs. the previous month’s 47.1. Look for Fed members to begin speaking on the latest decision and/or economic outlook beginning Friday.
| Date | Economic Reports |
|---|---|
| Monday, July 29 | 8:30 AM ET: Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey 11:00 AM ET: Export Inspections 4:00 PM ET: Crop Progress |
| Tuesday, July 30 | 8:00 AM ET: FOMC Meeting Begins 9:00 AM ET: FHFA House Price Index 9:00 AM ET: Case-Shiller Home Price Index 10:00 AM ET: Consumer Confidence * 10:00 AM ET: JOLTS * 4:30 PM ET: API Weekly Oil Stocks |
| Wednesday, July 31 | 7:00 AM ET: MBA Mortgage Applications 8:15 AM ET: ADP Employment Report 8:30 AM ET: Treasury Refunding Announcement 8:30 AM ET: Employment Cost Index 9:45 AM ET: Chicago PMI 10:00 AM ET: Pending Home Sales Index 10:30 AM ET: EIA Petroleum Status Report * 2:00 PM ET: FOMC Announcement *** 2:30 PM ET: Fed Chair Jerome Powell Press Conference *** 3:00 PM ET: Farm Prices |
| Thursday, August 1 | 7:30 AM ET: Challenger Job-Cut Report 8:30 AM ET: Jobless Claims *** 8:30 AM ET: Productivity and Costs 8:30 AM ET: Export Sales 9:45 AM ET: PMI Manufacturing Final * 10:00 AM ET: Construction Spending 10:00 AM ET: ISM Manufacturing Index * 10:30 AM ET: EIA Natural Gas Report * 3:00 PM ET: Fats & Oils 3:00 PM ET: Grain Crushings 4:30 PM ET: Fed Balance Sheet |
| Friday, August 2 | 8:30 AM ET: Employment Situation *** 10:00 AM ET: Factory Orders 1:00 PM ET: Baker Hughes Rig Count |
*** Market Moving Indicators
* Merit Extra Attention
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