In this week’s coverage, we analyze the bearish continuation in the copper market, and the extended pullback in the Micro Nasdaq 100 futures. We also examine the economic reports and earnings announcements expected next week.
Commentary and charts reflect data at the time of writing (Friday, August 2 at 2 PM ET), and market conditions may change by the publication of this analysis.
September Micro Nasdaq 100 Index Futures Weekly Chart
September Micro Nasdaq 100 Index futures experienced its fourth down week in a row, with the last three weeks showing a 3 Black Crows candlestick pattern, which is usually followed by further bearish candles. Friday’s trading brought the Nasdaq below its 26-week moving average, and broke the supportive trendline that began in October last year. MNQ also closed below the 23.6% retracement level of the uptrend that began in October 2022. This follows a week which saw the MACD give a bearish cross of its signal line. The RSI just crossed below 50, and is trending down, suggesting that sellers are in control. Should this trend continue, support might be found at the psychological number of 18,000, and further down at the 38.2 % retracement level (~17,480). A rally could see resistance at 20,000 and again and the recent high of ~20,980.
September Micro Nasdaq 100 Index futures weekly chart
September Copper Futures Weekly Chart
September copper futures finished the week slightly positive, though when compared to the previous week, copper shows a lower high, lower low and lower close, which fits right in with the bearish trend that has been in effect since late May. Copper is trading below the 26-week moving average and the Anchored Volume Weighted Average Price (AVWAP) fixed to the beginning of the year. The top of the Ichimoku cloud and the psychological number of 4.00 are still intact as support levels. Momentum indicators suggest that the bearish trend may continue–the MACD histogram is negative and expanding, and the RSI print of 44 is trending down, but still has room to get to the oversold level of 30. If this trend continues, look for support at the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement level (4.05) and at the top of the Ichimoku cloud (~3.98). A rally could see some resistance at the AVWAP which is near the 61.8% retracement level (~4.27).
September copper futures weekly chart
Companies Reporting Earnings August 5 – 9
Somewhat of a light week for major earnings announcements as small caps take the spotlight. Berkshire Hathaway reports on Saturday, and with Warren Buffet at the helm, many will be interested to hear his outlook for the economy.
Three Dow Jones stocks are on tap this week: Caterpillar announces Tuesday morning, Amgen reports Tuesday after market close, and Disney reveals its magic on Wednesday morning. Watch for volatility in Dow Jones futures around those releases. Travel and Hospitality companies are in focus, as Avis Budget, Hilton, Hyatt, Airbnb, and Expedia report throughout the week. These companies’ outlooks on future travel could give insight into consumer spending trends.
Paramount and Warner Bros. Discovery can also provide a look at consumer spending habits with respect to entertainment. Energy companies continue to report–Occidental Petroleum, Sunoco, Duke Energy, and Marathon can give oil outlooks from their respective places in the oil supply chain. CVS Health and Eli Lilly will remark on the healthcare industry results and outlook.
| Date | Companies Earnings |
|---|---|
| Monday, August 5 | Berkshire Hathaway, Inc. (BRK.B): $4.83 EPS Estimate (BMO) Avis Budget Group, Inc. (CAR): $2.60 EPS Estimate, $3.16B Revenue Estimate (AMC) |
| Tuesday, August 6 | Caterpillar, Inc. (CAT): $5.53 EPS Estimate, $16.81B Revenue Estimate (BMO) * Marathon Petroleum Corp. (MPC): $3.83 EPS Estimate, $32.04B Revenue Estimate (BMO) Duke Energy Corp. (DUK): $1.01 EPS Estimate, $6.66B Revenue Estimate (BMO) Hyatt Hotels Corp (H): $1.29 EPS Estimate, $1.76B Revenue Estimate (BMO) Amgen, Inc. (AMGN): $4.93 EPS Estimate, $8.30B Revenue Estimate (AMC) * Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB): $0.92 EPS Estimate, $2.75B Revenue Estimate (AMC) |
| Wednesday, August 7 | Walt Disney Co (DIS): $1.20 EPS Estimate, $22.86B Revenue Estimate (BMO) * CVS Health (CVS): $1.74 EPS Estimate, $91.56B Revenue Estimate (BMO) Sunoco, Inc. (SUN): $1.79 EPS Estimate, $5.49B Revenue Estimate (BMO) Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (HLT): $1.85 EPS Estimate, $2.97B Revenue Estimate (BMO) Honda Motor Co., Ltd. (HMC): $1.19 EPS Estimate, $33.75B Revenue Estimate (BMO) Occidental Petroleum Corp. (OXY): $0.80 EPS Estimate, $7.18B Revenue Estimate (AMC) Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc. (WBD): $-0.18 EPS Estimate, $10.14B Revenue Estimate (AMC) |
| Thursday, August 8 | Eli Lilly & Co. (LLY): $2.64 EPS Estimate, $9.83B Revenue Estimate (BMO) Paramount Global (PARA): $0.14 EPS Estimate, $7.21B Revenue Estimate (AMC) Expedia, Inc. (EXPE): $2.54 EPS Estimate, $3.53B Revenue Estimate (AMC) |
| Friday, August 9 | N/A |
* indicates that this company is in the Dow Jones Index
Economic Reports for the week of August 5 - 9
A relatively light week in economic news and events as Mary Daly and Thomas Barkin are the only Fed speakers to have meetings on their schedule. Note that Fed speakers may speak at any time and their comments can move markets.
Jobless Claims on Thursday morning could be the big story, after Friday’s employment situation report suggests that the economy might be cooling down. The jobless claims forecast has been steadily rising, with 245,000 jobless claims forecasted for this week’s report.
Monday morning’s ISM Services Index report could be a market mover as well. The forecast is for the report to jump to 51.4 (expansionary), so a subpar print might put the brakes on a stock market rally. Notable treasury auctions include the 3-Year Note, 10-year note and the 30-year bond. The EIA Petroleum report on Wednesday will be keenly watched as the oil market weighs contrasting factors: OPEC +, tensions in the Middle East, and economic drag effects on supply and demand.
| Date | Economic Reports |
|---|---|
| Monday, August 5 | 9:45 AM ET: PMI Composite Final 10:00 AM ET: ISM Services Index * 11:00 AM ET: Export Inspections 4:00 PM ET: Crop Progress 5:00 PM ET: San Francisco Fed Reserve Bank President Mary Daly |
| Tuesday, August 6 | 8:30 AM ET: International Trade in Goods and Services 1:00 PM ET: 3-Year Note Auction * 4:30 PM ET: API Weekly Oil Stocks |
| Wednesday, August 7 | 7:00 AM ET: MBA Mortgage Applications 10:30 AM ET: EIA Petroleum Status Report * 1:00 PM ET: 10-Year Note Auction * 3:00 PM ET: Consumer Credit |
| Thursday, August 8 | 8:30 AM ET: Jobless Claims *** 8:30 AM ET: Export Sales 10:00 AM ET: Wholesale Inventories (Preliminary) 10:30 AM ET: EIA Natural Gas Report 1:00 PM ET: 30-Year Bond Auction * 3:00 PM ET: Richmond Fed Bank President Thomas Barkin Speaks 4:30 PM ET: Fed Balance Sheet |
| Friday, August 9 | 1:00 PM ET: Baker Hughes Rig Count |
*** Market Moving Indicators
* Merit Extra Attention
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