In this week’s coverage, we analyze the pullback in WTI Crude Oil futures, and the rally in E-mini S&P 500 Index futures. We also examine the economic reports and earnings announcements expected next week.
Commentary and charts reflect data at the time of writing (Friday, August 23 at 2 PM ET), and market conditions may change by the publication of this analysis.
September E-mini S&P 500 Index Futures Weekly Chart
September E-mini S&P 500 Index futures finished up for the third consecutive week, and each time the close was within the top 20% of the week’s range, which can indicate follow through of the bullish trend for the next week. While ES did not make an all-time high this week, it did trade back above the supportive trendline that connects lows beginning back in October 2023. The E-mini is also nearing the upper Bollinger band, which could be bullish as the bands themselves are opening, which means increased upside and possible further bullish movement. The MACD is positive and shows signs of further bullishness if it crosses above its signal line. RSI is trending up with price and has not yet crossed above the overbought threshold of 70. Should this trend continue, possible resistance might be found at the high from July (5,721) and further up at the 100% extension of the previous uptrend applied to the current trend (5,813). A reverse to the downside might see support at the 76.4% Fibonacci level of the trend that started in October 2023 (5,278).
September E-mini S&P 500 Index futures weekly chart
September WTI Crude Oil Futures Weekly Chart
September WTI Crude Oil futures traded down slightly last week, after testing support at the lower Bollinger band and the supportive trendline defined by connecting lows from May 2024 and December 2024. Crude oil is positioned below the 26-week simple moving average, but above the Ichimoku cloud. Opposing forces could keep this market sideways. Recent peak highs in crude have been restrained by the resistance line that began in October 2023. This constriction is considered a symmetric triangle, which crude could break above or below with equal probability. This consolidation is also reflected in the construction of the Bollinger bands. MACD is positive but recently closed below its signal line, indicative of an indecisive market. RSI is trading along with price and is in neutral territory. If this market turns bullish, look for resistance at the 38.2 Fibonacci retracement level (77.25), which is near the 26-week MA. Support might be found at the Ichimoku cloud, which is right at the 50% Fib retracement level (73.45). Further support could be tested at the lower Bollinger band (71.45).
September WTI Crude Oil futures weekly chart
Companies Reporting Earnings August 26 – 30
The big earnings event this week is when NVIDIA report on Wednesday after the close. This has the capability of not only affecting the Nasdaq and S&P 500 futures but all stock index futures markets if the numbers or forecasts are noteworthy.
That same afternoon, Salesforce (the lone Dow Jones stock reporting) will report, which could affect YM and MYM futures. Other tech companies reporting as HP (Wednesday after market close) and Dell Technologies (Thursday AMC).
Otherwise, the big companies reporting seem to fall into two categories: Canadian banks (Bank of Montreal, Bank of Nova Scotia, CIBC) and Retail/apparel: Best Buy, Kohl’s, Nordstrom, Abercrombie & Fitch, The Gap, American Eagle, Burlington, and lululemon to name a few. These retail companies can paint a picture of retail sales in particular and the health of the economy in general.
| Date | Companies Earnings |
|---|---|
| Monday, August 26 | N/A |
| Tuesday, August 27 | Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS): $1.18 EPS Estimate, $6.19B Revenue Estimate (BMO) Bank of Montreal (BMO): $1.98 EPS Estimate, $6.02B Revenue Estimate (BMO) Nordstrom, Inc. (JWN): $0.75 EPS Estimate, $3.84B Revenue Estimate (AMC) |
| Wednesday, August 28 | Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (ANF): $2.14 EPS Estimate, $1.09B Revenue Estimate (BMO) Kohl’s Corporation (KSS): $0.49 EPS Estimate, $3.81B Revenue Estimate (BMO) Royal Bank of Canada (RY): $2.14 EPS Estimate, $10.37B Revenue Estimate (BMO) NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA): $0.64 EPS Estimate, $28.24B Revenue Estimate (AMC) Salesforce (CRM): $1.73 EPS Estimate, $9.23B Revenue Estimate (AMC) * HP Inc. (HPQ): $0.86 EPS Estimate, $13.31B Revenue Estimate (AMC) |
| Thursday, August 29 | Best Buy Co., Inc. (BBY): $1.15 EPS Estimate, $9.24B Revenue Estimate (BMO) Dollar General Corporation (DG): $1.80 EPS Estimate, $10.39B Revenue Estimate (BMO) American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. (AEO): $0.38 EPS Estimate, $1.31B Revenue Estimate (BMO) Burlington Stores Inc (BURL): $0.94 EPS Estimate, $2.41B Revenue Estimate (BMO) Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CM): $1.28 EPS Estimate, $4.59B Revenue Estimate (BMO) Dell Technologies (DELL): $1.49 EPS Estimate, $24.06B Revenue Estimate (AMC) lululemon athletica inc. (LULU): $2.94 EPS Estimate, $2.43B Revenue Estimate (AMC) Gap, Inc. (GPS): $0.42 EPS Estimate, $3.62B Revenue Estimate (AMC) |
| Friday, August 30 | N/A |
* indicates that this company is in the Dow Jones Index
Economic Reports for the week of August 26 - 30
The biggest economic data this week releases on Friday, as the Personal Income and Outlays report contains the inflation data that the Fed follows closely, Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE). The month over month core PCE is forecast to come in unchanged at 0.2%, and will tell us if the Fed’s take on a cooling inflation environment is stable.
Thursday morning, Jobless Claims and GDP could be market movers, as the Fed focuses on a weakening labor market. Home Sales and Prices reports arrive on Tuesday and Wednesday morning, from Case-Shiller and the FHFA. Manufacturing surveys from the Dallas and Richmond Feds will be released on Monday and Tuesday morning, respectively, with the Richmond survey expected to improve from the previous month’s report, though still show a contractionary print (-14).
Consumer sentiment surveys from the Conference Board (Tuesday) and University of Michigan (Friday) are projected to be relatively unchanged. Raphael Bostic is slated to speak at least twice next week, though other Fed speakers will likely comment on information that came out of the Jackson Hole meetings last weekend.
| Date | Economic Reports |
|---|---|
| Monday, August 26 | 8:30 AM ET: Durable Goods Orders * 10:30 AM ET: Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey * 11:00 AM ET: Export Inspections 4:00 PM ET: Crop Progress |
| Tuesday, August 27 | 9:00 AM ET: FHFA House Price Index 9:00 AM ET: Case-Shiller Home Price Index 10:00 AM ET: Consumer Confidence 10:00 AM ET: Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index * 11:00 AM ET: Treasury Buyback Announcement 1:00 PM ET: Money Supply 4:30 PM ET: API Weekly Oil Stocks |
| Wednesday, August 28 | 7:00 AM ET: MBA Mortgage Applications 10:30 AM ET: EIA Petroleum Status Report * 11:00 AM ET: Survey of Business Uncertainty 6:00 PM ET: Raphael Bostic Speaks |
| Thursday, August 29 | 8:30 AM ET: Jobless Claims *** 8:30 AM ET: GDP *** 8:30 AM ET: Wholesale Inventories (Advance) 8:30 AM ET: Retail Inventories (Advance) 8:30 AM ET: Corporate Profits 8:30 AM ET: International Trade in Goods and Services 8:30 AM ET: Export Sales 10:00 AM ET: Pending Home Sales Index * 10:30 AM ET: EIA Natural Gas Report * 3:30 PM ET: Raphael Bostic Speaks @AtlantaFed 4:30 PM ET: Fed Balance Sheet |
| Friday, August 30 | 8:30 AM ET: Personal Income and Outlays *** 9:45 AM ET: Chicago PMI * 10:00 AM ET: Consumer Sentiment * 1:00 PM ET: Baker Hughes Rig Count 3:00 PM ET: Farm Prices |
*** Market Moving Indicators
* Merit Extra Attention
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