In this week’s coverage, we analyze the pullbacks in the Micro Nasdaq 100 and gold futures. We also examine the economic reports expected next week.
Commentary and charts reflect data at the time of writing (Friday, August 30 at 2 PM ET), and market conditions may change by the publication of this analysis.
September Micro Nasdaq 100 Index Futures Weekly Chart
September Micro Nasdaq 100 Index futures closed down for the week, finding support at the 26-week simple moving average and the supportive trendline found by connecting lows from October 2023 and April this year. Nasdaq futures closed back below the 23% Fibonacci retracement level of the uptrend that began in October 2023 and culminated in July. The MACD, while still in positive territory, remains below its signal line and is trending lower–a bearish tendency. RSI is trending down in line with Nasdaq’s price trend, indicating weakening bullish momentum. Should this pullback continue, look for support at the 26-week moving average (~19,075) and further down at the 50% Fib retracement (~17,200). A rally could see resistance near the recent highs at the psychological value of 21,000.
September Micro Nasdaq 100 Index futures weekly chart
December Gold Futures Weekly Chart
December gold futures closed 10 handles lower last week, contained by 26-week contracting Bollinger bands, which can be a sign of cooling volatility. The high of the week approached the 50% Fibonacci extension level, found by measuring the previous uptrend (from February to April this year and applying to the low of the current uptrend). The price remains above the Ichimoku cloud and three different speed lines, which are supportive lines that connect peak lows, with each connection resulting in a steeper uptrend. MACD recently crossed above its signal line (bullish), though the RSI might indicate some weakness, as the lower peak highs in the RSI diverges from the higher peak highs in gold. If the uptrend resumes, look for resistance at the 61.8% extension (~2,617). If the downturn continues, support may be found at the meeting of the supportive trendline and the 23.6% Fib extension level (~2,450).
December gold futures weekly chart
Economic Reports for the week of September 2 - 6
The big reports this week appear to be labor-centric, and as that is one of the Federal Reserve’s two mandates, market participants will be paying keen attention. In addition to the Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey (expected to be cooler than previous at 8.00 million) on Wednesday, Thursday morning brings three labor-related reports (Challenger-Gray Job Cuts, ADP Employment, and Jobless Claims).
Forecast numbers don’t point to any seismic changes, though a surprise number could affect the markets. The most anticipated of the labor reports arrives on Friday, which includes non-farm payrolls, the unemployment rate, and worker’s wage information.
Tuesday morning brings reports focused on manufacturing and construction spending, which could give some forward guidance on the health of the economy. Due to the Labor Day holiday in the United States on Monday, expect some regular reports to be delayed this week. Not many Fed speakers lined up for next week (the last week they can speak before the quiet period that precedes FOMC meetings), but New York Fed Bank president John Williams is slated for 8:45 am Friday–right after the unemployment report.
OPEC+ meets on Thursday, and is expected to lift voluntary production cuts for Q4. Crude oil and distillate futures traders will take interest in what comes out of that meeting.
| Date | Economic Reports |
|---|---|
| Monday, September 2 | U.S. Bank Holiday - Labor Day |
| Tuesday, September 3 | 9:45 AM ET: PMI Manufacturing Final 10:00 AM ET: Construction Spending 10:00 AM ET: ISM Manufacturing Index 11:00 AM ET: Treasury Buyback Announcement 11:00 AM ET: Export Inspections 3:00 PM ET: Fats and Oils 3:00 PM ET: Grain Crushings 4:00 PM ET: Crop Progress |
| Wednesday, September 4 | 8:30 AM ET: International Trade in Goods and Services 10:00 AM ET: Factory Orders 10:00 AM ET: JOLTS 2:00 PM ET: Beige Book 4:30 PM ET: API Weekly Oil Stocks |
| Thursday, September 5 | 6:00 AM ET: OPEC+ Meeting Begins 7:00 AM ET: MBA Mortgage Applications 7:30 AM ET: Challenger Job-Cut Report 8:15 AM ET: ADP Employment Report 8:30 AM ET: Jobless Claims 8:30 AM ET: Productivity and Costs 9:45 AM ET: PMI Composite Final 10:00 AM ET: ISM Services Index 10:30 AM ET: EIA Natural Gas Report 11:00 AM ET: EIA Petroleum Status Report 4:30 PM ET: Fed Balance Sheet @federalreserve |
| Friday, September 6 | 8:30 AM ET: Export Sales 8:30 AM ET: Employment Situation 8:45 AM ET: New York Fed Bank President John Williams Speaks 1:00 PM ET: Baker Hughes Rig Count |
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