In this week’s coverage, we analyze the pullbacks in the E-mini Russell 2000 and Euro FX futures. We also examine the economic reports expected next week.
Commentary and charts reflect data at the time of writing (Friday, September 6 at 2 PM ET), and market conditions may change by the publication of this analysis.
September E-mini Russell 2000 Index Futures Weekly Chart
September E-mini Russell 2000 Index futures fell 122 points (-5.49%) to close below the supportive trendline found by connecting lows from November 2023 and April 2024. After testing the upper Bollinger band the previous week, the Russell closed just below the 26-week simple moving average. Last week’s low stopped three points short of touching the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the bullish trend from November 2023 to August 2024. The MACD is one tick away from showing a bearish cross below its signal line. RSI is trending down, crossing below the mid-level at 50. If this reversal holds, look for support at the 50% Fib level (2,012) and further at the top of the Ichimoku cloud (which is the psychological level of 2,000). A rally might find resistance at the 23.6% retracement level (2,175).
September E-mini Russell 2000 Index futures weekly chart
September Euro FX Futures Weekly Chart
After forming a tweezer top with at the highs of 2024 (1.12125), September Euro FX futures pulled back below the upper Bollinger band, finding support at the top of the Ichimoku cloud. This level coincides with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, measured from the uptrend that began in late June. Friday’s close kept Euro FX above the short-term supportive trend line that started in early August. With the expanding Bollinger bands and a recent break out of the longer-term wedge to the upside, Euro FX is looking bullish. MACD reinforces this idea as bot the MACD and its signal line are positive and trending upward (=momentum is bullish). RSI failed to get overbought at the recent highs, but could make another try if the trend stays bullish. In that case, look for resistance at the 23.6% Fib level (1.10933) and at recent YTD highs (1.12125). If Euro FX falls further, support might occur at the 50% Fib level (1.09600) and 61.8% Fib level (1.09004).
September Euro FX futures weekly chart
Economic Reports for the week of September 9 - 13
Don’t expect much from Fed speakers as they enter a quiet period before the next FOMC meeting on Wednesday September 18. The biggest report this week could be the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Wednesday morning, forecast to come in at 2.6% year-over-year, a marked improvement over the previous number of 2.9%.
The Jobless Claims report arrives the next day and is forecast to tick up slightly higher than the previous (229k vs. 227k). The Producers Price Index (PPI) is released at the same time as Jobless Claims, and with both of the Fed’s mandates represented in these two reports, expect much debate on the extent of the rate cut for the following week.
The World Agriculture Supply/Demand estimates for the major grain markets arrive Thursday at noon ET, and could introduce volatility in the corn, wheat, soybeans markets, and more. Treasury futures traders should watch the 10-year note and 30-year bond auctions on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively.
University of Michigan releases the consumer sentiment report on Friday morning, which also includes inflation expectations and can move the markets at that time.
| Date | Economic Reports |
|---|---|
| Monday, September 9 | 10:00 AM ET: Wholesale Inventories (Preliminary) 11:00 AM ET: Export Inspections 3:00 PM ET: Consumer Credit 4:00 PM ET: Crop Progress |
| Tuesday, September 10 | 6:00 AM ET: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index 4:30 PM ET: API Weekly Oil Stocks |
| Wednesday, September 11 | 7:00 AM ET: MBA Mortgage Applications 8:30 AM ET: CPI *** 10:00 AM ET: Quarterly Services Survey 10:30 AM ET: EIA Petroleum Status Report * 1:00 PM ET: 10-Year Note Auction |
| Thursday, September 12 | 8:30 AM ET: PPI-Final Demand *** 8:30 AM ET: Jobless Claims *** 8:30 AM ET: Export Sales 10:30 AM ET: EIA Natural Gas Report * 12:00 PM ET: USDA Supply Demand - Corn, Wheat, Soybean, Cotton *** 12:00 PM ET: Crop Production 1:00 PM ET: 30-Year Bond Auction 2:00 PM ET: Treasury Statement 4:30 PM ET: Fed Balance Sheet |
| Friday, September 13 | 8:30 AM ET: Import and Export Prices 10:00 AM ET: Consumer Sentiment * 1:00 PM ET: Baker Hughes Rig Count |
*** Market Moving Indicators
* Merit Extra Attention
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