In this week’s coverage, we analyze the rallies in the Dow Jones Index and Micro Bitcoin futures. We also examine the economic reports expected next week.
Commentary and charts reflect data at the time of writing (Friday, September 13 at 2 PM ET), and market conditions may change by the publication of this analysis.
September E-mini Dow Jones Index Futures Weekly Chart
September E-mini Dow Jones Index futures rallied last week, testing the upper Bollinger band before closing slightly below the previous candle’s open. Last week’s candle is a strong key reversal, making a lower low than the previous week before turning around and closing with almost the same range as the previous candle. The Dow has been trading close to the upper Bollinger bands as it emerges from a short consolidative status, usually indicating that an uptrend is in play. The Dow continues to advance above the VWAP anchored to the beginning of the year (AVWAP), suggesting a bullish mode. The MACD is positive but flat and tangled up with its signal line. This occurs when trends are sideways or slightly bullish/bearish. The RSI is showing signs of possible divergence, as recent peak highs in price appear successively stronger, while the peak highs in the RSI are lower than the previous peak highs. If this market continues to trend up, look for resistance at recent highs of ~41,680. A downturn could see support at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of ~39,775, which could be reinforced by the yearly AVWAP.
September E-mini Dow Jones Index futures weekly chart
September Micro Bitcoin Futures Weekly Chart
Micro Bitcoin futures experienced a nice reversal last week, closing higher than the previous candle’s open and above the Ichimoku cloud. Bitcoin traded back into the Bollinger bands, though still in a trend channel that began when the market reversed down in April this year. The MACD histogram is negative (bearish) but shows signs of bullishness as it has turned up and is sloping to the positive. The RSI has turned up to follow price and is just short of 50. If this rally continues, look for resistance at the top of the trend channel, reinforced by the Anchored VWAP at ~64,500. A reversal might see support at ~55,000–a psychological number that corresponds to the bottom of the Ichimoku cloud and the 50% Fibonacci retracement level.
September Micro Bitcoin futures weekly chart
Economic Reports for the week of September 16 - 20
Wednesday will be the most-anticipated FOMC announcement yet this year, as the Fed is expected to begin a rate-cutting cycle. The big question is whether that first cut will be 25 or 50 basis points. At this writing, the CME’s Fed Watch Matrix shows equal probabilities for 25 and 50 bps.
This will affect most markets. Watch the Russell 2000 (RTY/M2K), gold (GC/MGC) and treasuries (ZB/ZN) to get a bigger boost if the decision is to cut 50 bps. The Empire State and Philly Fed Manufacturing Indices could be spoilers when they report as both are expected to see contractionary numbers, which may throw water on the thoughts of a 50-basis point cut.
Home Sales, Housing Starts and Building Permits, and the weekly MBA Mortgage report will inform us on the state of the housing market, with forecasts projected to be unchanged or slightly weaker than the previous month.
Retail sales on Tuesday morning are forecast to be down slightly–0.2% versus 1% up the previous month. Fed speakers are free to make policy statements after Thursday, and Philadelphia Fed Bank President Harker is set to speak Friday afternoon.
| Date | Economic Reports |
|---|---|
| Monday, September 16 | 8:30 AM ET: Empire State Manufacturing Index * 11:00 AM ET: Export Inspections 4:00 PM ET: Crop Progress |
| Tuesday, September 17 | 8:00 AM ET: FOMC Meeting Begins 8:30 AM ET: Retail Sales *** 9:15 AM ET: Industrial Production 10:00 AM ET: Business Inventories 10:00 AM ET: Housing Market Index 4:30 PM ET: API Weekly Oil Stocks |
| Wednesday, September 18 | 7:00 AM ET: MBA Mortgage Applications 8:30 AM ET: Housing Starts and Permits * 10:00 AM ET: Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations 10:30 AM ET: EIA Petroleum Status Report * 2:00 PM ET: FOMC Announcement *** 2:30 PM ET: Fed Chair Jerome Powell Press Conference *** 4:00 PM ET: Treasury International Capital |
| Thursday, September 19 | 8:30 AM ET: Jobless Claims *** 8:30 AM ET: Current Account 8:30 AM ET: Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index * 8:30 AM ET: Export Sales 10:00 AM ET: Leading Indicators 10:00 AM ET: Existing Home Sales * 10:30 AM ET: EIA Natural Gas Report 4:30 PM ET: Fed Balance Sheet |
| Friday, September 20 | 1:00 PM ET: Baker Hughes Rig Count 2:00 PM ET: Philadelphia Fed Bank President Patrick Harker Speaks 3:00 PM ET: Cattle On Feed |
*** Market Moving Indicators
* Merit Extra Attention
Daily Futures Market Prep and Analysis With the Pros
Interact with our experts and other futures traders during daily livestreams as we analyze the markets in real time and explore our award-winning desktop platform. Log in here.
Trade Futures With Us
Sign up for your free NinjaTrader account today to start your 14-day trial of live simulated futures trading.
