In this week’s coverage, we analyze the uptrend in the E-mini S&P 500 Index futures and the rally in natural gas futures. We also examine the economic reports expected next week.
Commentary and charts reflect data at the time of writing (Friday, September 20 at 2 PM ET), and market conditions may change by the publication of this analysis.
December E-mini S&p 500 Index Futures Weekly Chart
December E-mini S&P 500 Index futures made an all-time high of 5,797.50 last week, testing the upper Bollinger band before falling 50 points to make an all-time high weekly close. Last week’s trading extended the bullish move from the previous week, where ES found support at the 26-week moving average. The MACD is ready to cross above its signal line, which might indicate a bullish trend is confirmed. The RSI shows slight bearish divergence, as RSI peaks are declining and the E-mini S&P is making new highs. If the current uptrend holds, resistance might be found at the extension of the previous uptrend applied to the recent low (5,874). If this market pulls back, support might be found at the 26-week MA (~5,505) and further down at the lower support line of the trend channel that began in November (~5.330).
December E-mini S&P 500 Index futures weekly chart
October Natural Gas Futures Weekly Chart
Natural gas futures enjoyed a third consecutive positive week after making a multi-week low in August. This coincided with a bounce off the lower Bollinger band, and Nat Gas now is attempting to get back to the 26-week simple moving average. While natural gas has been in a downtrend for almost two years, price has been contained in a downward-sloping trend channel since October 2023. This week’s trading caused the MACD to show a bullish cross while still in negative territory–some consider this to be a healthy bullish indication, though follow through is necessary. RSI is trading in line with price, showing an uptrend in neutral territory at 45. If this market continues to trend up, there are plenty of resistance areas: The 26-week moving average (~2.60), the top of the trend channel (~2.95), and the bottom of the Ichimoku cloud (~3.23). A reverse down could see support at the lower Bollinger band (~1.92).
October natural gas futures weekly chart
Economic Reports for the week of September 23 - 27
This week is rife with Fed speakers now that that the blackout period is over after last week’s FOMC meeting and decision. Three Federal Reserve Bank presidents speak Monday: Raphael Bostic, Austan Goolsbee, and Neel Kashkari are slated throughout the day.
Governors Michell Bowman and Adriana Kugler speak on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Friday, but the big day for Fed speakers is Thursday. Chair Powell, New York’s John Williams, and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen all have engagements planned for Thursday morning. Governor Michael Barr and Neel Kashkari speak later that day, as well.
As to economic data this week, S&P Global releases PMI information, with both Services and Manufacturing expected to increase vs. the previous report. Tuesday will see two reports on home prices, from Case-Shiller and the FHFA, both are forecast to show slight rises in home prices.
On Wednesday, New Home Sales from the Census Bureau are expected to decline, from 739,000 to 693,000. In addition to the usual Jobless Claims report (which may see at slight rise of 224k claims from the previous week’s 219k), Thursday brings the final GDP number for the second quarter, which is expected to show a slight revision down (2.9% vs 3.0%).
The most anxiously awaited report should be Friday’s Personal Consumption and Expenditures, which is the inflation measure by which the Fed makes their policy decisions. It is forecast to be at the same level as the previous report, which is 0.2% month over month. Don’t ignore the consumer sentiment report later that morning, expected to tick up slightly to 69.4.
| Date | Economic Reports |
|---|---|
| Monday, September 23 | 8:00 AM ET: Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic Speaks 8:30 AM ET: Chicago Fed National Activity Index 9:45 AM ET: PMI Composite Final *** 10:15 AM ET: Chicago Fed Bank President Austan Goolsbee 11:00 AM ET: Export Inspections 1:00 PM ET: Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari Speaks 4:00 PM ET: Crop Progress |
| Tuesday, September 24 | 9:00 AM ET: FHFA House Price Index 9:00 AM ET: Case-Shiller Home Price Index 9:00 AM ET: Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman Speaks 10:00 AM ET: Consumer Confidence * 10:00 AM ET: Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index 1:00 PM ET: Money Supply 4:30 PM ET: API Weekly Oil Stocks |
| Wednesday, September 25 | 7:00 AM ET: MBA Mortgage Applications 10:00 AM ET: New Home Sales 10:30 AM ET: EIA Petroleum Status Report * 11:00 AM ET: Survey of Business Uncertainty 4:00 PM ET: Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler Speaks |
| Thursday, September 26 | 8:30 AM ET: Jobless Claims *** 8:30 AM ET: GDP *** 8:30 AM ET: Corporate Profits 8:30 AM ET: Durable Goods Orders 8:30 AM ET: Export Sales 9:20 AM ET: Fed Chair Jerome Powell Press Speaks *** 9:25 AM ET: New York Fed Bank President John Williams Speaks 10:00 AM ET: Pending Home Sales Index 10:30 AM ET: EIA Natural Gas Report * 10:30 AM ET: Fed Governor Michael Barr Speaks 11:00 AM ET: Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index 11:15 AM ET: Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen Speaks 12:00 PM ET: Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari 3:00 PM ET: Cold Storage 3:00 PM ET: Hogs & Pigs 4:30 PM ET: Fed Balance Sheet 6:00 PM ET: Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook Speaks |
| Friday, September 27 | 8:30 AM ET: Wholesale Inventories (Advance) 8:30 AM ET: Retail Inventories (Advance) 8:30 AM ET: Personal Income and Outlays *** 8:30 AM ET: International Trade in Goods and Services 10:00 AM ET: Consumer Sentiment * 1:00 PM ET: Baker Hughes Rig Count 1:15 PM ET: Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman Speaks 3:00 PM ET: Farm Prices |
*** Market Moving Indicators
* Merit Extra Attention
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