In this week’s coverage, we analyze the extended rallies in the Micro Nasdaq 100 Index futures and copper futures. We also examine the economic reports expected next week.
Commentary and charts reflect data at the time of writing (Friday, September 27 at 2 PM ET), and market conditions may change by the publication of this analysis.
December Micro Nasdaq 100 Index Futures Weekly Chart
December Micro Nasdaq 100 Index futures finished the week in positive territory for the third consecutive week, separating from the supportive trend line as defined by connecting the lows in October 2023 and April this year. This keeps the Nasdaq above the 26-week moving average, and the distance between the Bollinger bands just started to separate ever so slightly. Widening Bollinger bands suggest increasing volatility, which could mean that a trend is taking hold in the Nasdaq. The MACD is about to cross above its signal line and if it does, that would be an indication that a bullish trend is in place. RSI is trading in line with price, and at 57 suggests that there is room to continue the uptrend. Upside targets might include the 50% Fibonacci extension level (10,645) as well as the 61.8% Fib extension level (~21,370). If this market turns down, look for support at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level (~19,830) and at the 26-week moving average, which coincides with the 50% Fib retracement level( ~19,400).
December Micro Nasdaq 100 Index futures weekly chart
December Copper Futures Weekly Chart
December copper futures experienced the best bullish week since the end of July, continuing the uptrend that launched after a second test of the top of the Ichimoku cloud or the psychological 4.000 level. This placed copper on the bullish side of the 26-week moving average and kept it above the volume-weighted average price that is anchored to the start of this year. This move also saw copper trading at the 50% retracement level of the downtrend off recent highs. The MACD is just about to cross above both the zero line and the signal line, which may give a boost to the current uptrend. RSI is trending with price at 58. If this uptrend continues, look for resistance at the 61.8 Fibonacci retracement level which coincides with the peak high at the end of July (~4.76). If this market turns down, support may be found at the 23.6% Fib retracement level, which is reinforced by the anchored VWAP (~4.28).
December copper futures weekly chart
Economic Reports for the week of September 30 - October 4
As next week brings the start of a new month, PMI information is released for multiple countries across the globe. Chicago PMI arrives Monday, and Tuesday brings the PMI reports from S&P Global and ISM–unchanged to slight gains are forecast for these reports.
It is also labor information week, with Job Openings Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) on Tuesday due to show a slight increase from the previous report. ADP Employment on Wednesday could bring some good news, as it is forecast to show 120k new jobs vs. 99k the previous month. The Challenger-Gray job cuts report arrives an hour before Jobless Claims on Thursday morning. Forecasts look to show a slight uptick (219k vs. last week’s 218k).
The unemployment situation comes on Friday, forecast to be slightly lower than the previous month (135k vs. 142k). The week is rife with Fed speakers. Most notable is Chair Powell, who is slated to speak at 1 PM ET on Monday, which could introduce some volatility in most markets.
| Date | Economic Reports |
|---|---|
| Monday, September 30 | 8:50 AM ET: Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman Speaks 9:45 AM ET: Chicago PMI * 10:30 AM ET: Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey 11:00 AM ET: Export Inspections 1:00 PM ET: Fed Chair Jerome Powell Press Speaks *** 4:00 PM ET: Crop Progress |
| Tuesday, October 1 | 9:45 AM ET: PMI Manufacturing Final * 10:00 AM ET: Construction Spending 10:00 AM ET: ISM Manufacturing Index * 10:00 AM ET: JOLTS *** 11:00 AM ET: Atlanta Fed Bank President Raphael Bostic 11:10 AM ET: Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook Speaks 3:00 PM ET: Fats and Oils 3:00 PM ET: Grain Crushings 4:30 PM ET: API Weekly Oil Stocks 6:15 PM ET: Richmond Fed Bank President Thomas Barkin Speaks 6:15 PM ET: Atlanta Fed Bank President Raphael Bostic 6:15 PM ET: Boston Fed Bank President Susan Collins Speaks |
| Wednesday, October 2 | 7:00 AM ET: MBA Mortgage Applications 8:15 AM ET: ADP Employment Report * 9:00 AM ET: Cleveland Fed Bank President Beth Hammack Speaks 10:05 AM ET: St. Louis Fed Bank President Alberto Musalem Speaks 10:30 AM ET: EIA Petroleum Status Report * 11:00 AM ET: Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman Speaks 11:30 AM ET: Richmond Fed Bank President Thomas Barkin Speaks |
| Thursday, October 3 | 7:30 AM ET: Challenger Job-Cut Report 8:30 AM ET: Jobless Claims *** 9:45 AM ET: PMI Composite Final * 10:00 AM ET: ISM Services Index * 10:00 AM ET: Factory Orders 10:30 AM ET: EIA Natural Gas Report 10:30 AM ET: Fed Governor Michael Barr Speaks 10:40 AM ET: Atlanta Fed Bank President Raphael Bostic 4:30 PM ET: Fed Balance Sheet |
| Friday, October 4 | 8:30 AM ET: Employment Situation *** 9:00 AM ET: New York Fed Bank President John Williams Speaks 1:00 PM ET: Baker Hughes Rig Count @bakerhughesco |
*** Market Moving Indicators
* Merit Extra Attention
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