Futures Trading Outlook: 10-year Note Futures Bullish Heading Into the Holiday Week

By NinjaTrader Team


In this week’s coverage, we analyze the bullish trends in Micro Nasdaq 100 and 10-year note futures, the bearish trend in RBOB gasoline futures, and the stall in Micro bitcoin futures. We also examine the economic and earnings reports expected next week. 

Please Note: 
Commentary and charts reflect data at the time of writing. Market conditions are subject to change and may not reflect all market activity.


December Micro Nasdaq 100 Index Futures Daily Chart

December Micro Nasdaq 100 Index futures continued the bullish trend that began at the end of October, stopping short of the peak high from July 31. Last week's price trend kept the Nasdaq above the Ichimoku cloud and both the 50- and 200-day moving averages. The RSI shows that this trend may have stalled a bit as it has been trading at about 68 for the last four sessions. While the MACD and its histogram are both positive, the histogram shows signs of weakening, as it turns down toward the zero line. A continuation of the trend might find resistance at the high from July 31 (16,111.50) and beyond that the all-time high on July 19 (16,257.50). A pullback might find support at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the most recent uptrend (15,597.50).


December RBOB Gasoline Futures Daily Chart

December RBOB gasoline oil futures’ advancement was held in check by the 200-day moving average despite and almost equal and opposite rally on Friday. This puts RBOB gasoline below its 50-day moving average and the Ichimoku cloud, which is a bearish situation. MACD is showing consolidation as the MACD and its signal line we've above and below each other. The RSI is showing some bullish divergence though, as lower peak lows on RBOB are matched by higher peak lows on RSI an indication of a possible reversal. If this reversal occurs resistance might be found at the 50% Fibonacci retracement level, which coincides with the 200-day moving average (~2.2060). A continuation to the downside might find support at the 61.8% Fib level (~2.09).


December 10-Year Note Futures Daily Chart

December 10-year note futures resume the rally that started on October 19, testing the top of the Ichimoku cloud, which has held as resistance. Last week's break above the 50-day moving average should be considered bullish. The RSI is marching right along with price, and the MACD and its histogram are in bullish territory as well. Should the rally continue, look for resistance at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level (110’095). A reversal would find support at the 23.6% Fib retracement level (108’105).


November Micro Bitcoin Futures Daily Chart

November Micro bitcoin futures experienced some consolidation last week, after price jumped 25% since October 20. Bitcoin is trading well above the Ichimoku cloud and the 50- and 200-day moving averages, which puts bitcoin in a bullish status. Three cases for a bearish outlook appear in the momentum indicators: bearish divergence with the RSI, a cross below the overbought level of 70 in RSI, and the macd line crossing below its signal line. If bitcoin turns bearish, look for support at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level from its low in September to the recent high this week (35,325). Further support might be found at the 38.2 Fib level (33,435).


Companies Reporting Earnings November 20 – November 24

Earnings this week focuses on companies involved with tech and retail, with the bulk of the reports coming Tuesday due to a holiday-shortened week. Zoom and Agilent report Monday afternoon, and NVIDIA and Hewlett-Packard report Tuesday after market close. 

Retail is takes center stage before markets open on Tuesday, with Kohl's, Best Buy, Lowe's, Burlington, Dick's Sporting Goods, and Baidu slated to release earnings Tuesday afternoon. Nordstrom reports after the market closes on Tuesday, as well. Before markets open on Wednesday, John Deere and Company reports. Earnings season isn't over yet – next week begins Canadian companies’ earnings season.

Date Companies Earnings
Monday, November 20 Zoom Video Communications, Inc. (ZM): $1.08 EPS Estimate, $1.06B Revenue Estimate (AMC)
Agilent Technologies, Inc. (A): $1.34 EPS Estimate, $1.68B Revenue Estimate (AMC)
Tuesday, November 21 Kohl’s Corporation (KSS): $0.34 EPS Estimate, $3.92B Revenue Estimate (BMO)
Best Buy Co., Inc. (BBY): $1.19 EPS Estimate, $9.91B Revenue Estimate (BMO)
Lowe’s Companies, Inc. (LOW): $3.05 EPS Estimate, $21.07B Revenue Estimate (BMO)
Baidu, Inc. (HD): $2.28 EPS Estimate, $4.78B Revenue Estimate (BMO)
Burlington Stores Inc (HD): $0.99 EPS Estimate, $2.30B Revenue Estimate (BMO)
Dick’s Sporting Goods, Inc. (HD): $2.43 EPS Estimate, $2.95B Revenue Estimate (BMO)
NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA): $3.16 EPS Estimate, $16.12B Revenue Estimate (AMC)
HP Inc. (HPQ): $0.90 EPS Estimate, $13.02B Revenue Estimate (AMC)
Nordstrom, Inc. (JWN): $0.13 EPS Estimate, $3.42B Revenue Estimate (AMC)
Wednesday, November 22 Deere & Company (DE): $7.49 EPS Estimate, $12.91B Revenue Estimate (BMO)
Thursday, November 23 Market Holiday: Thanksgiving
Friday, November 24 N/A

* indicates that this company is in the Dow Jones Index

Economic Reports for the week of November 20 – November 24

Due to the Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday, some economic reports may appear ahead of their normal release day. The report with the biggest impact could be Jobless Claims on Wednesday at 8:30 AM ET, although the Durable Goods Orders report comes in at the same time, which could also move the markets. 

The Conference Board’s Leading Indicators report could provide insight into the inflation situation. The FOMC minutes on Tuesday afternoon could provide insight into future fed decisions. Energy traders should look for two EIA reports on Wednesday morning – normally, the Natural Gas report drops on Thursdays, but due to the holiday it shows up one day early. The impact of Friday morning’s PMI Composite Flash report might be muted a bit due to its proximity to the Thanksgiving holiday.

Date Economic Reports
Monday, November 20 10:00 AM ET: Leading Indicators *
11:00 AM ET: Export Inspections
4:00 PM ET: Crop Progress
Tuesday, November 21 8:30 AM ET: Chicago Fed National Activity Index
10:00 AM ET: Existing Home Sales
2:00 PM ET: FOMC Minutes *
4:30 PM ET: API Weekly Oil Stocks
Wednesday, November 22 7:00 AM ET: MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET: Bank Reserve Settlement
8:30 AM ET: Jobless Claims ***
8:30 AM ET: Durable Goods Orders
10:00 AM ET: Consumer Sentiment *
10:30 AM ET: EIA Petroleum Status Report *
12:00 PM ET: EIA Natural Gas Report *
1:00 PM ET: Baker Hughes Rig Count
3:00 PM ET: Cold Storage
Thursday, November 23 Market Holiday: Thanksgiving
Friday, November 24 8:30 AM ET: Export Sales
9:45 AM ET: PMI Composite Flash *
4:30 PM ET: Fed Balance Sheet

*** Market Moving Indicators
* Merit Extra Attention

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