Futures Trading Outlook: Agriculture Future Traders Anticipate Potential Market Mover

By NinjaTrader


Coverage for the week of June 26th – June 30th: In this week’s coverage, we examine bullish trends in the E-Mini S&P 500 and Euro FX futures, a rebound in Wheat futures, and the bearish trend in Copper futures. We also examine the economic report releases for the upcoming week.

September E-Mini S&P 500 Future Weekly Chart

The September E-Mini S&P 500 future found a pause in the current bullish weekly trend – while it didn’t make a higher high, it did make a higher low. Last week’s bar found resistance at the high from August of last year, which coincides with the 61.8% retracement level of the downtrend as determined by the high in January 2022 to the low in October 2022. The upper Bollinger band also acted as resistance as the E-Mini S&P closed back within the Bollinger bands – a possible sign of a bearish return to the mean. The RSI turned down with last week’s activity, after failing to achieve an overbought level of 70. The MACD and its histogram both remain positive (a bullish state). Should the uptrend continue, the 76% Fib retracement level (4620) could act as resistance. A continuation of the pullback could find support at the 50% Fib retracement level, which coincides with the top of the Ichimoku cloud (~4270).


September Wheat Future Weekly Chart

The September Wheat future continued a strong rally off its 4-year low of 586 from one month ago. Finding some resistance at the upper Bollinger Band, this bullish action opened the bands slightly, which indicates increasing volatility. The RSI jumped from near-oversold levels to over 50 in a matter of 3 weeks – indicating strong bullish momentum. The MACD histogram is positive and increasing – also a bullish sign. Should the bull trend continue, expect resistance at the 23% Fib retracement level (from the March 2022 high to the June 2023 low), which may coincide with the 52-week moving average (~790). A reverse to the downside might find purchase at the middle Bollinger band (~675).


September Euro FX Weekly Chart

Last week’s September Euro FX weekly candle shows some indecision, with a close resting at the middle Bollinger band as support. This coincides with the 38% Fibonacci retracement level as defined by the downtrend beginning in January 2021 and ending in September 2022. The top of the Ichimoku cloud acted as support to begin the current rally. The RSI shows some sign of weakness via divergence, as recent trough lows are declining (while the trough lows in price are increasing). The MACD, while positive, is bearish in relation to its signal line (as shown by the negative histogram). Should Euro FX rally, expect resistance at the double top level (1.11740). A continuation of the pullback might find support at the top of the Ichimoku cloud (~1.08100).


July Copper Future Weekly Chart

The current bull trend in July Copper, which started after closing below the lower trend channel line as identified since the beginning of this year, continued but is slightly deceptive. While last week saw a bearish candle, Copper made a higher high AND a higher low for the 4th consecutive week. The middle Bollinger band acted as resistance, but copper found support at the 52-week moving average. RSI is in line with price, and the MACD shows slightly bearish readings as it is negative and below its signal line. If the uptrend continues, look for resistance at the 38% Fib level (3.8875) and the top of the trend channel (~4.07). Should the downtrend extend, support could occur at the 50% Fib retracement (~3.74) and the bottom of the trend channel (~3.65).


Economic Reports for the week of June 26th – June 30th

Commentary: This week is rife with economic reports and events featuring a comprehensive representation of the economy, starting with the Dallas Fed’s manufacturing report on Monday morning. 

The Richmond Fed’s Manufacturing Index on Tuesday and Chicago PMI on Friday also give insight to the supply side of the U.S economy. On the demand side of the economy, there are plenty of reports this week: Durable Goods orders on Tuesday; Wholesale Inventories, Retail Inventories and Survey of Business Uncertainty on Wednesday; and Consumer Sentiment on Friday. 

The final Q1 GDP estimate arrives Thursday morning, and while that may be a market mover, the data is 3-months lagged as we are at the end of the second quarter. No less than five reports this week on the housing market: Case-Shiller Home Price Index, FHFA House Price Index and New Home Sales on Tuesday; the weekly MBA Mortgage Applications on Wednesday; and Pending Home Sales Index on Thursday. 

For agriculture future traders, the Planted Acreage report at noon on Friday could be a market mover.*

Chair Powell speaks right at the stock market open on Wednesday at the European Central Bank Forum in Portugal, and into the wee hours of Thursday morning at the Banco de Espana Conference. Other Federal Reserve Presidents and Governors may speak this week, though their schedules are not updated at the time of this writing.

Date Economic Release
Monday, June 26th 10:30 AM ET: Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey *
11:00 AM ET: Export Inspections
4:00 PM ET: Crop Progress
Tuesday, June 27th 8:30 AM ET: Durable Goods Orders
9:00 AM ET: Case-Shiller Home Price Index
9:00 AM ET: FHFA House Price Index
10:00 AM ET: New Home Sales
10:00 AM ET: Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index *
10:00 AM ET: Consumer Confidence *
1:00 PM ET: Money Supply
4:30 PM ET: API Weekly Oil Stocks
Wednesday, June 28th 7:00 AM ET: MBA Mortgage Applications
8:30 AM ET: International Trade in Goods and Services
8:30 AM ET: Wholesale Inventories (Advance) *
8:30 AM ET: Retail Inventories (Advance) *
9:30 AM ET: Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell Speaks ***
10:30 AM ET: EIA Petroleum Status Report *
11:00 AM ET: Survey of Business Uncertainty
Thursday, June 29th 2:30 AM ET: Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell Speaks ***
8:30 AM ET: Jobless Claims ***
8:30 AM ET: Corporate Profits
8:30 AM ET: GDP ***
8:30 AM ET: Export Sales
10:00 AM ET: Pending Home Sales Index
10:30 AM ET: EIA Natural Gas Report *
4:30 PM ET: Fed Balance Sheet
Friday, June 30th 8:30 AM ET: Personal Income and Outlays *
9:45 AM ET: Chicago PMI *
10:00 AM ET: Consumer Sentiment
12:00 PM ET: Grain Stocks
12:00 PM ET: Planted Acreage
1:00 PM ET: Baker Hughes Rig Count
3:00 PM ET: Farm Prices

*** Market Moving Indicators
* Merit Extra Attention

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