Futures Trading Outlook: Consolidated E-Mini Russell 2000, Natural Gas Futures

By NinjaTrader

Coverage for the week of July 10th – July 14th: In this week’s coverage, we examine the bullish situation in British Pound futures, consolidation in E-Mini Russell 2000 and Natural Gas futures, and the potential for a rally in Silver futures. We also examine the economic report releases for the upcoming week.

September E-Mini Russell 2000 Future Weekly Chart

September E-Mini Russell 2000 futures to finish above the 200-week moving average, after crossing below that level and the 52-week moving average earlier in the week. The 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the long-term downtrend (as defined by the high in November 2021 to the low in October 2022) also acted as support at 1883. RSI is trending up in line with price, and the MACD histogram is positive, with the MACD poised to cross above 0 (which would be a bullish indication). Should the Russell trade to the downside, look for support in the area of 1865 – 1875 (the 52-week moving average to the bottom of the Ichimoku cloud), with further support at 1745, a support level that held from mid-March to end of June. Should the uptrend continue, resistance might be found at 1950 – 1950 (top of the Ichimoku cloud) and, beyond that, at the 38.2% Fib retracement level (2002).


September British Pound Future Weekly Chart

Buyers came in strong last week for September British Pound futures, pushing 6B back to levels seen 2-3 weeks prior (~1.2850). The weekly high fell just short of the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the downtrend, which started in June 2021 and culminated in September 2022. Last week also completed a nice 3-bar reversal pattern, indicating some bullishness. With the RSI at 64, there’s some room to the upside to get to an overbought level of 70. MACD is showing bullishness as both the MACD and MACD Histogram are positive. Should the uptrend continue, look for possible resistance at the 200-week moving average (~1.3000). Support to the downside can be found at the 50% Fib retracement level (1.2414).


August Natural Gas Weekly Chart

Last week’s sellers pushed August Natural Gas down to ~2.57, which is almost halfway between the range of 2.24 to 2.95 (which has been in effect since mid-May). RSI turned down with price, and, at ~37.64, is not too far from crossing below the oversold level of 30. The MACD Histogram is slightly bullish, though the MACD is negative, which suggests some indecisiveness and is line with consolidating markets. A bearish indication came in mid-June with the 52-week moving average crossing below the 200-week MA. Should this downtrend continue, support might be found at 2.24, the bottom of the trend channel. A target on the upside might be found at the previous high in March at ~ 3.60.


September Silver Future Weekly Chart

September Silver continues the rally off the support provided by the 52-week moving average. While Silver closed above the Ichimoku cloud (a bullish state), the 200-week moving average held firm as resistance. RSI is not uneventful, showing a neutral bias of ~47 and following the price action of silver closely. The MACD, while positive, has a negative histogram (bearish indication), but is consistent with a rally during a downtrend. Should price break through to the upside, resistance might be found at the 38.2% Fib level (23.40) and the 23.6% Fib level (24.64). A reverse down might see support at the 50% and 61.8% Fib retracement levels (~22.20 and ~21.40, respectively).


Economic Reports for the week of July 10th – July 14th

Commentary: This week’s schedule for economic releases is smaller than usual, but don’t let that fool you – some very important reports are dropping for the economy overall and the agriculture community as well.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) arrives at 8:30 AM ET, Wednesday, and can help traders understand whether the Fed’s policies are working properly to rein in inflation. The Produce Price Index (PPI) follows on Thursday morning, and provides similar information, though it reflects prices earlier in the production process.

Jobless claims are reported at the same time as PPI and could also impact price action. For traders that focus on the agriculture markets, the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) reports for corn, wheat, soybeans, and cotton arrive at noon Wednesday.

Otherwise, EIA reports for Petroleum (Wednesday) and Natural Gas (Thursday) could inject some volatility into their respective energy markets. Federal Reserve Bank agents are scheduled to speak Monday and Thursday but be aware that other Fed representatives may speak at other times.


Economic Reports

Monday, July 10th

5:00 AM ET: San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly Speech
10:00 AM ET: Wholesale Inventories (Preliminary)
10:00 AM ET: Federal Reserve Vice Chair Michael S. Barr Speaks
11:00 AM ET: Export Inspections
3:00 PM ET: Consumer Credit
4:00 PM ET: Crop Progress

Tuesday, July 11th

6:00 AM ET: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
4:30 PM ET: API Weekly Oil Stocks

Wednesday, July 12th

7:00 AM ET: MBA Mortgage Applications
8:30 AM ET: CPI ***
10:00 AM ET: Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations
10:30 AM ET: EIA Petroleum Status Report *
12:00 PM ET: USDA Supply/Demand - Corn, Wheat, Soybean, Cotton ***
12:00 PM ET: Crop Production
2:00 PM ET: Beige Book

Thursday, July 13th

8:30 AM ET: Jobless Claims ***
8:30 AM ET: PPI-Final Demand ***
8:30 AM ET: Export Sales
10:30 AM ET: EIA Natural Gas Report *
2:00 PM ET: Treasury Statement
4:30 PM ET: Fed Balance Sheet 
6:45 PM ET: Federal Reserve Governor Christopher J. Waller Speaks

Friday, July 14th

8:30 AM ET: Import and Export Prices *
10:00 AM ET: Consumer Sentiment
1:00 PM ET: Baker Hughes Rig Count

***Market Moving Indicators

*Merit Extra Attention

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