Futures Trading Outlook: Dow Jones Futures After Amazon Replaces Walgreens

By NinjaTrader Team


In this week’s coverage, we analyze daily March Micro Nasdaq 100 Index futures, daily April Micro crude oil futures, weekly March 10-year note futures and the weekly March Micro Bitcoin futures. We also examine the economic reports and earnings announcements expected next week.

Please Note: 
Commentary and charts reflect data at the time of writing. Market conditions are subject to change and may not reflect all market activity.


March Micro Nasdaq 100 Index Futures Daily Chart

The March Micro Nasdaq 100 Index futures closed slightly lower on Friday, at 17,969, after making a new all-time high earlier in the session at 18,145. Closing below 18,000 could be considered slightly bearish going into next week. However, this market has been consistently tracking higher, staying above the 20-day SMA since early November last year. The 50-day SMA is also on the upslope, signaling positive bullish momentum. Looking at the 14-bar Stochastic, MNQ is not as overbought as you would expect, signaling there may be more room to the upside. In addition, volatility as measured by the Average True Range (ATR) is also increasing, which may indicate a strengthening upward trend.

March Micro Nasdaq 100 Index futures

April Micro Crude Oil Futures Daily Chart

The April Micro crude oil futures closed down $2 a barrel on Friday, ending the week at $76.56. Crude has been in a consolidation channel for the past few weeks, between $76 and $79 a barrel, with the 20-day SMA providing strong support during this same time period. U.S. oil production is near all-time highs. This increased supply may put downward pressure on crude oil prices for a while. The 14-bar Stochastic is pushing into over-bought levels, which may signal a follow through reversal to the downside following today’s red candle. Average True Range (ATR) has been in decline since the beginning of the year, confirming the consolidation squeeze pattern we have seen the past two weeks.

April Micro crude oil futures

March 10-Year Note Futures Weekly Chart

The March 10-year note futures closed unchanged for the week, with a slightly positive Doji pattern, signally some indecision on directional sentiment moving into next week. Notes have been trending down the past two weeks on lowered expectation that there will be any interest rate cuts by the Fed any time soon. The 10-year note futures closed below the 13-week SMA two weeks ago, signaling bearish sentiment ahead, but there should be good support at 108^24. Stochastic rolled below the overbought level this week, which may be another confirmation for lower prices. Volatility in the notes is lower than normal, which may indicate that many traders here have a ‘wait and see ’attitude.

March 10-year note futures

March Micro Bitcoin Futures Weekly Chart

The March Micro Bitcoin futures closed slightly down this week at around $51,680 after a strong 4-week rally that saw Bitcoin move from $42,000 to as high as $53,000 a Bitcoin last week. Both the 13- and 52-week moving averages have good positive up slopes, indicating that the trader sentiment is bullish for higher prices. The weekly Stochastic has been consistently overbought since November and is likely to stay overbought after these past three weeks. However, this current rally still has a ways to go to hit the all-time high at around $67.500. The weekly ATR has been rising steadily here as well, as rising prices attract more traders and confirm the trend.

March Micro Bitcoin futures

Companies Reporting Earnings February 26 – March 1

The lone Dow Jones Index company reporting this week is Salesforce on Wednesday afternoon–and as the seventh largest stock in the index by weight–could have significant impact on YM/MYM futures. Warren Buffet’s Berkshire Hathaway reports Monday morning.

Retail stocks include Lowe’s, Macy’s, Baidu, Advance Auto Parts, Best Buy and Anheuser-Busch Inbev throughout the week. These companies could give some guidance on the inflation picture. Zoom, eBay, HP and Dell report in the afternoon Monday through Thursday, respectively, which could give some insight on the technology front. 

Canadian companies’ earnings season starts this week with four banks reporting: Bank of Nova Scotia and Bank of Montreal on Tuesday morning, and TD Bank and Royal Bank of Canada on Wednesday morning.

Date Companies Earnings
Monday, February 26 Berkshire Hathaway, Inc. (BRK.B): $1.78 EPS Estimate (BMO)
Zoom Video Communications, Inc. (ZM): $0.42 EPS Estimate, $1.13B Revenue Estimate (AMC)
Tuesday, February 27 Lowe’s Companies, Inc. (LOW): $1.68 EPS Estimate, $18.35B Revenue Estimate (BMO)
Macy’s, Inc. (M): $2.02 EPS Estimate, $8.10B Revenue Estimate (BMO)
Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS): $1.22 EPS Estimate, $6.14B Revenue Estimate (BMO)
Bank of Montreal (BMO): $2.48 EPS Estimate, $25.00B Revenue Estimate (BMO)
eBay, Inc. (EBAY): $0.80 EPS Estimate, $2.51B Revenue Estimate (AMC)
Wednesday, February 28 Baidu, Inc. (BIDU): $1.95 EPS Estimate, $4.93B Revenue Estimate (BMO)
Advance Auto Parts, Inc. (AAP): $0.24 EPS Estimate, $2.47B Revenue Estimate (BMO)
TD Bank Group (TD): $1.46 EPS Estimate, $9.21B Revenue Estimate (BMO)
Royal Bank of Canada (RY): $2.12 EPS Estimate, $9.93B Revenue Estimate (BMO)
Salesforce (CRM): $2.26 EPS Estimate, $9.23B Revenue Estimate (AMC) *
Paramount Global (PARA): $-0.05 EPS Estimate, $7.84B Revenue Estimate (AMC)
HP Inc. (HPQ): $0.82 EPS Estimate, $13.51B Revenue Estimate (AMC)
Thursday, February 29 Best Buy Co., Inc. (BBY): $2.51 EPS Estimate, $14.56B Revenue Estimate (BMO)
Anheuser-Busch InBev (BUD): $0.76 EPS Estimate, $15.55B Revenue Estimate (BMO)
Dell Technologies (DELL): $1.48 EPS Estimate, $22.16B Revenue Estimate (AMC)
Friday, March 1 N/A

* indicates that this company is in the Dow Jones Index

Economic Reports for the week of February 26 – March 1

The biggest news this week looks to be Amazon replacing Walgreens in the Dow Jones Industrial Index on Monday. This could impact Dow Jones futures at the start of the trading session Sunday evening. Wednesday’s GDP is the first revision of the Q4 2023 estimate of 3.3%. A dramatic increase or decrease could impact the U.S. Dollar, which in turn would affect most futures markets. 

The Jobless Claims report drops Thursday morning and could be a market mover too. Manufacturing reports from Dallas, Richmond and Kansas City are expected throughout the week, with PMI and ISM finishing the week with their manufacturing reports. The real estate sector is busy this week with Home Sales or Price indices arriving on Monday, Tuesday and Thursday mornings; the usual MBA Mortgage report Wednesday morning tells us about how the real estate activity is financed. 

New York Federal Reserve Bank presidents are busy this week, with no less than nine speaking engagements scheduled at the time of this writeup. Pay attention to John Williams when he speaks on Wednesday afternoon and Thursday evening. Be aware that other speaking engagements may occur at any time as these speakers may appear on TV without posting to their calendar.

Date Economic Reports
Monday, February 26 9:30 AM ET: Amazon replaces Walgreens in the Dow Jones Industrial Index
10:00 AM ET: New Home Sales
10:30 AM ET: Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey
11:00 AM ET: Export Inspections
Tuesday, February 27 8:30 AM ET: Durable Goods Orders *
9:00 AM ET: Case-Shiller Home Price Index
9:00 AM ET: FHFA House Price Index
10:00 AM ET: Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
10:00 AM ET: Consumer Confidence
11:00 AM ET: Export Inspections
1:00 PM ET: Money Supply
4:30 PM ET: API Weekly Oil Stocks
Wednesday, February 28 7:00 AM ET: Bank Reserve Settlement
7:00 AM ET: MBA Mortgage Applications
8:30 AM ET: GDP ***
8:30 AM ET: Wholesale Inventories (Advance)
8:30 AM ET: Retail Inventories (Advance)
8:30 AM ET: International Trade in Goods (Advance)
10:30 AM ET: EIA Petroleum Status Report *
11:00 AM ET: Survey of Business Uncertainty
12:00 PM ET: Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic Speaks
12:15 PM ET: Boston Fed President Susan Collins Speaks
12:45 PM ET: New York Fed President John Williams Speaks
Thursday, February 29 8:30 AM ET: Personal Income and Outlays
8:30 AM ET: Jobless Claims ***
8:30 AM ET: Export Sales
9:45 AM ET: Chicago PMI
10:00 AM ET: Pending Home Sales Index
10:30 AM ET: EIA Natural Gas Report
10:50 AM ET: Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic Speaks
11:00 AM ET: Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index
11:00 AM ET: Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee Speaks
1:15 PM ET: Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester Speaks
3:00 PM ET: Farm Prices
4:30 PM ET: Fed Balance Sheet
8:10 PM ET: New York Fed President John Williams Speaks
Friday, March 1 9:45 AM ET: PMI Manufacturing Final
10:00 AM ET: ISM Manufacturing Index 
10:00 AM ET: Construction Spending 
10:00 AM ET: Consumer Sentiment *
12:15 PM ET: Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic Speaks
1:00 PM ET: Baker Hughes Rig Count
1:30 PM ET: San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly Speaks
3:00 PM ET: Fats & Oils
3:00 PM ET: Grain Crushings

*** Market Moving Indicators
* Merit Extra Attention

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