Coverage for the week of September 4 – September 8: In this week’s futures trading outlook coverage, we analyze the pullbacks in the E-mini Dow and Euro FX futures, and the bullish continuation of the copper and crude oil futures. We also examine the economic reports expected next week.
September E-Mini Dow Jones Index Future Daily Chart
September E-mini Dow Jones futures struggled to stay above the 50-day moving average last week, hitting resistance from the downward sloping trend line found by connecting highs from late July to mid-August. This resistance coincides with the top of the Ichimoku cloud. The E-mini Dow Jones also failed to close above the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the downtrend as determined by the highs connected from August 1 to August 14. RSI is in line with price, and the MACD just crossed above its signal line suggesting a bullish trend. If the E-mini Dow can break above the resistance trend line, look for a further resistance at the 50% Fib level (~34950) and the 61.8% level (~35160). If resistance holds and the market turns down, support might be found at the 23.6% Fib level (~34480) and the 200-day moving average (~34200).
September Euro FX Future Daily Chart
September Euro FX futures saw a rally early last week, though that rally was undone by Thursday’s and Friday’s bearish action. A cross above the 200-day moving average and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level showed hopeful signs of bullishness; the late-week reversal brought this market down to a supportive trend line that began in March of this year and was tested at the end of May. RSI is in line with price; and the MACD indicator has bearish indications in both the MACD line and its histogram.
Should this market continue to trend downward; support could be found at previous peak lows (1.07 from May and 1.063 in March). Resistance might be found at the confluence of the 200-day moving average and the 23% Fib retracement level (~1.090) and the meeting of the 50-day moving average and 38.2% Fib retracement level (~1.098).
December Copper Future Daily Chart
December copper continued the uptrend that began on August 17, hitting resistance at the downward sloping trend line that began in January of this year. While copper traded above the Ichimoku cloud on Friday, sellers knocked it back down to close in the cloud. A cross above the 50-day moving average can be considered an early bullish confirmation signal. The MACD histogram continues to be positive, while the MACD itself just crossed over into positive territory. The 50% Fibonacci retracement level (as determined by the downtrend that started on August 1 and ended on August 17) held as resistance on Friday. Should copper continue its bullish move, expect some resistance at the 61.8% Fib retracement level (3.89) and at the 200-day moving average (~3.95). A reversal to the downside could find support at the 38% Fib retracement level (3.80).
October Crude Oil Future Daily Chart
October crude oil futures finished the week strong, taking out the high in early August. Strong bullish moves on Thursday and Friday of last week forced the MACD histogram to close above zero, which is generally considered a bullish signal. Crude oil also exceeded the 61% Fibonacci retracement level (as determined from the trend found at the high in November of 2022 to the low in May of 2023). The RSI trended up to 65 along with price. However, bearish RSI divergence can be seen ahead of the last retracement in August; the current price action and RSI activity could be another sign of bearish divergence as well, though it is too early to confirm. In both cases, crude oil price makes newer highs while RSI cannot make new highs. Should the bullish trend continue, resistance might appear at 87.10. A bearish reversal might see some support at 83.19.
Economic Reports for the week of September 4 – September 8
Commentary: A light week for economic reports as Monday is Labor Day in the U.S. The stock market is closed in observance of the holiday. Factory Orders on Tuesday morning could introduce some volatility at the 10 AM ET bar. Wednesday has more pieces to the manufacturing and services puzzle with International Trade in Goods and Services at 8:30 AM, PMI Composite Final at 9:45 AM and ISM Services at 10 AM.
Also at 8:30 AM Wednesday, Susan Collins from the Boston Fed will speak, and could provide insight into the Fed’s actions at the next Fed meeting. Thursday is a busy day with Jobless Claims and Productivity and Costs reports at 8:30 AM. The EIA provides both the Natural Gas report and Petroleum Report on Thursday, the latter is delayed one day due to Monday’s holiday.
Fed Presidents John Williams (New York) and Raphael Bostic (Atlanta) speak mid-afternoon and evening. Friday’s Wholesale Inventory report could be a market mover at 10 AM Friday. Watch out for the Consumer Credit report Friday at 3 PM ET – this could inject some activity at the end of the trading week. Be aware that Fed speakers are not always able to give advance notice of a speaking event, and can make comments that the market may react to.
Monday, September 4th
Market Holiday: Labor Day
Tuesday, September 5th
10:00 AM ET: Factory Orders
Wednesday, September 6th
7:00 AM ET: MBA Mortgage Applications
Thursday, September 7th
8:30 AM ET: Jobless Claims ***
Friday, September 8th
***Market Moving Indicators
*Merit Extra Attention
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