Futures Trading Outlook: E-Mini S&P 500 Index Trending Bullish

By NinjaTrader Team

In this week’s coverage, we analyze the bullish trend in the E-mini S&P 500 Index, and the rebound in WTI crude oil futures

Please Note: 
Commentary and charts reflect data at the time of writing (Friday, June 14 at 1 PM ET), and market conditions may change by the publication of this analysis.

June E-Mini S&P 500 Index Futures Weekly Chart

June E-mini S&P Index futures followed through with a second consecutive week of gains on positive inflation numbers. Last week saw new highs in the E-mini S&P futures and pushed the market above the 38.2% Fibonacci extension level, found by measuring the uptrend from October 2023 to early April this year and applying it to the recent peak low. June E-mini S&Ps remain above the 26-week and 52-week moving averages, and above the Ichimoku cloud (all three of which are upward-sloping). Signs of weakness might be showing in the MACD, as the MACD and its signal seem to be jockeying for control (indicating a slowing trend). RSI shows possible bearish divergence, as RSI cannot get above the 70 level with this new high (while the RSI was above 75 with a lower peak high in price in early April). This could be too early to declare divergence as the RSI has yet to turn down to identify a lower peak high, which would be required for divergence in this instance. Should this market continue to trend up, resistance might be found at the 50% Fib extension (5,510) and the 61.8% Fib extension (5,640). A reversal might see support at the trendline (~5,250) and further down at the recent low in April (~4,965).

E-mini S&P 500 futuresJune E-mini S&P 500 Index futures weekly chart

August WTI Crude Oil Futures Weekly Chart

August WTI crude oil futures rallied strongly last week, crossing above the 26-week and 52-week moving averages, as well as reversing a close below the Ichimoku cloud two weeks ago into a close above the cloud. This also pushed crude oil above the 76.50 mark, which has not only acted as support and resistance for the past couple of years, but also acts as the midpoint for the past two rallies (June 2023 to October 2023 and December 2023 to April 2024). A bullish engulfing pattern was formed with the current week’s candle body positive (green) engulfing the previous week’s negative (red) candle body. The MACD shows consolidation, though the MACD histogram is trending back up toward zero. A cross above the zero line would be considered bullish. RSI is trending along with price, and last week’s price action cause RSI to curl up. If this uptrend continues, look for the downward-sloping trendline of multiple years to act as resistance (~81.25). A break back below the Ichimoku cloud suggests that support might be found at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the most recent uptrend (~74.00).

WTI crude oil futuresAugust WTI crude oil futures weekly chart

Economic Reports for the week of June 17  – June 21

This week is relatively quiet from an economic news point of view. Manufacturing and housing are the main themes. Empire State Manufacturing on Monday morning is expected to improve from -15.6 to -12.5, though that is still indicating contraction for New York. Industrial Production on Tuesday is expected to rise 0.4% MoM.

Philly Fed Manufacturing on Thursday is forecast to have no change, at an expansionary print of 4.5. Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI from S&P Global on Friday projects some cooling. NAHB Housing Market on Wednesday, Housing Starts and Building Permits on Thursday, and Existing Home Sales on Friday all show no change or a slight cooling.

Futures market trading will be limited on Wednesday due to the Juneteenth holiday in the United States as stock markets are closed that day. Jobless claims are forecast to be a touch lower than the previous week: 240,000 jobs lost vs. 242,000. Options expiration occur on Friday. Be aware markets could show some unexpected volatility toward the end of the week.

Fed speakers this week include Thomas Barkin, Lorie Logan, Alberto Musalem, Austan Goolsbee, and Patrick Harker. Note that Fed speakers may make unscheduled appearances throughout the week.

DateEconomic Reports
Monday, June 17 8:30 AM ET: Empire State Manufacturing Index ***
 11:00 AM ET: Export Inspections
 1:00 PM ET: Philadelphia Fed Bank President Patrick Harker Speaks
 4:00 PM ET: Crop Progress
Tuesday, June 18 8:30 AM ET: Retail Sales *
 9:15 AM ET: Industrial Production *
 10:00 AM ET: Business Inventories
 10:00 AM ET: Richmond Fed Bank President Thomas Barkin Speaks
 1:00 PM ET: Dallas Fed Bank President Lorie Logan Speaks
 1:20 PM ET: St. Louis Fed Bank President Alberto Musalem Speaks
 2:00 PM ET: Chicago Fed Bank President Austan Goolsbee Speaks
 4:00 PM ET: Treasury Statement
 4:30 PM ET: API Weekly Oil Stocks
Wednesday, June 19 Market Holiday: Juneteenth
 10:00 AM ET: Housing Market Index 
Thursday, June 20 7:00 AM ET: MBA Mortgage Applications
 8:30 AM ET: Housing Starts and Permits
 8:30 AM ET: Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index *
 8:30 AM ET: Jobless Claims ***
 8:30 AM ET: Current Account
 10:00 AM ET: Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations
 11:00 AM ET: EIA Petroleum Status Report
 4:00 PM ET: Richmond Fed Bank President Thomas Barkin Speaks
 4:30 PM ET: Fed Balance Sheet
Friday, June 21 8:30 AM ET: Export Sales
 9:45 AM ET: PMI Composite Flash ***
 10:00 AM ET: Existing Home Sales *
 10:00 AM ET: Leading Indicators
 10:30 AM ET: EIA Natural Gas Report
 1:00 PM ET: Baker Hughes Rig Count
 3:00 PM ET: Cattle On Feed

*** Market Moving Indicators
* Merit Extra Attention

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