Futures Trading Outlook: Bullish Trends in the Micro NASDAQ 100 Futures Ahead of Independence Day

By NinjaTrader

Coverage for the week of July 3rd– July 7th: In this week’s coverage, we examine bullish trends in the Micro NASDAQ 100 futures, a consolidation in Micro Bitcoin futures and the bearish trend in Crude Oil and Gold futures. We also look at the economic report releases for the upcoming week.

September E-Mini Micro NASDAQ 100 Future Weekly Chart

September Micro NASDAQ 100 futures continued the uptrend that began at the beginning of this year. Last week's bullish candle reinforced the break of the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level as defined by the trend found from the high in November of 2021 to the low in October of 2023. The RSI, while still in an overbought state, threatens to cross below 70. The MACD reflects the current bullish price trend as both the MACD and its histogram are above 0. Should the bullish trend continue, an area of resistance at the 76% fib retracement level (which coincides with the high from April of 2022) at ~ 15790. Should the trend reverse, support could be found at 14,100 which is the 50% fib retracement level.

September Micro NASDAQ

July Micro Bitcoin Future Weekly Chart

While the July Micro Bitcoin future continues to be mired in the Ichimoku cloud, last week's bar closed within 15% of the top of the previous bullish candle (which represented a 5% move in Bitcoin). Last week's pullback did not quite get back to the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. RSI is trending up with price at ~62 and has room to go before it's considered overbought at 70. The MACD reflects consolidation or sideways motion that has been prevalent since price entered the Ichimoku cloud back in March. Should this market continue to track up, possible resistance areas are the top of the Ichimoku cloud and the 200-week moving average (~34400). A retracement to the downside could see support at the 50-week moving average (~23425) and then the bottom of the Ichimoku cloud (~19625).

July Bitcoin

August Crude Oil Weekly Chart

Last week’s August Crude Oil weekly candle found support at 67.05, a support level that has held since mid-March. The high of last week came well under the declining trend line formed by joining lower highs evident since mid-April. While crude oil seems bearish by several measures (a lower value on RSI at ~42, MACD and MACD histograms both are negative, price is below the 52-week moving average and the Ichimoku cloud), trading above the 200-week moving average gives crude slight hope for a bullish outlook. Should crude oil break out of the descending triangle, resistance could happen at the 23.6% Fib retracement level (~76.30). A break of the triangle to the downside might find support at the 200-week moving average (~57.80).

August Crude Oil

August Gold Future Weekly Chart

August gold continued a bearish run as the low of last week's candle tested the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of 1895 before buyers pushed it back up to the top of the Ichimoku cloud. Closing within the cloud from above is a sign of bearishness. RSI is trending down in line with gold pricing and the MACD while positive shows bearishness with the histogram increasingly negative should the bear trend continue support could be found at the intersection of the 200- and the 52-week moving average at around 1890. A reversal up might expect resistance at 1944, which is the 38.2% retracement level (as defined by the uptrend from the low in November 2022 to the high in May 2023.

August Gold

Economic Reports for the week of July 3rd – July 7th

Due to the Independence Day holiday on Tuesday, Monday sees an unusual number of economic reports that could give some insight into the manufacturing portion of the economy. With PMI manufacturing at 9:45 AM and ISM manufacturing and construction spending at 10:00 AM, markets may experience some volatility on the light holiday volume.

Factory orders are released Wednesday morning, and FOMC minutes at 2:00 PM could bring volatility to stock index futures. OPEC begins a two-day meeting on Wednesday morning, so be ready since any information coming from that meeting could be a market-mover in the crude oil market. EIA reports are delayed by one day, so the petroleum report arrives Thursday morning and the natural gas report drops Friday morning. Thursday sees no less than four labor related reports, with the most impactful likely to be Jobless Claims at 8:30. Friday's employment situation at 8:30 could also be a market mover.


Economic Reports

Monday, July 3rd

9:45 AM ET: PMI Manufacturing Final *
10:00 AM ET: Construction Spending
10:00 AM ET: ISM Manufacturing Index *
11:00 AM ET: Export Inspections
3:00 PM ET: Grain Crushings
3:00 PM ET: Fats & Oils
4:00 PM ET: Crop Progress

Tuesday, July 4th

Market Holiday: Independence Day

Wednesday, July 5th

7:00 AM ET: MBA Mortgage Applications
8:00 AM ET: Motor Vehicle Sales
8:00 AM ET: Bank Reserve Settlement
8:00 AM ET: OPEC Meeting, Day 1
10:00 AM ET: Factory Orders
2:00 PM ET: FOMC Minutes
4:30 PM ET: API Weekly Oil Stocks

Thursday, July 6th

7:30 AM ET: Challenger Job-Cut Report
8:00 AM ET: OPEC Meeting, Day 2
8:15 AM ET: ADP Employment Report
8:30 AM ET: International Trade in Goods and Services *
8:30 AM ET: Jobless Claims ***
9:45 AM ET: PMI Composite Final
10:00 AM ET: JOLTS *
10:00 AM ET: ISM Services Index
11:00 AM ET: EIA Petroleum Status Report *
4:30 PM ET: Fed Balance Sheet

Friday, July 7th

8:30 AM ET: Export Sales
8:30 AM ET: Employment Situation ***
10:30 AM ET: EIA Natural Gas Report *
1:00 PM ET: Baker Hughes Rig Count

***Market Moving Indicators

*Merit Extra Attention

Get Started with NinjaTrader

NinjaTrader supports more than 800,000 traders worldwide with a powerful and user-friendly trading platform, discount futures brokerage and world-class support. NinjaTrader is always free to use for advanced charting and strategy backtesting through an immersive trading simulator.

Download NinjaTrader’s award-winning trading platform and get started with a free trading demo with real-time market data today!