Futures Trading Outlook: E-mini S&P 500 Shows Bullish Trends

By NinjaTrader


Coverage for the week of June 19th – June 23rd: In this week’s coverage, we examine bullish trends in the E-Mini S&P 500, Crude Oil and Corn futures, and the consolidating trend in Gold futures. We also examine the economic report releases for the upcoming week.

September E-Mini S&P 500 Future Daily Chart

The September E-Mini S&P 500 future extended the bullish trend, having closed higher in six consecutive days going into Friday’s trading. Price eclipsed the August 2022 high of 4456.50 on Thursday, following an unsurprising FOMC announcement on Wednesday. RSI extended to almost 76, a strong overbought level. The MACD continued to be positive, and the MACD histogram increased as well, signs of a bullish trend. Should this trend continue, possible resistance could occur at 4639.25 (the high in April 2022) and 4690.50 (a measured move identified at the breakout of the ascending triangle).  Support to the downside could be found at the top of the ascending triangle (4285).


August Crude Oil Future Daily Chart

August Crude Oil found support at 67 before rallying $4+, finding resistance at the bottom of the Ichimoku cloud. The RSI showed slight signs of bullish divergence, as RSI low peaks increased while peak lows in price decreased. The MACD shows a very slight bullish bias, as the MACD crossed above its signal line. Should the bullish trend continue, resistance might be found at ~72.80 (trendline formed by connecting highs in mid-April and early June) and at ~73.85 (where the top of the Ichimoku cloud and the 50-day moving average meet). Support could be re-tested at 67, which was seen as support in Mid-March in addition to last week).


July Corn Future Daily Chart

July Corn finished the week strong, with two consecutive bullish candles of roughly equal size lifting this market above its 200-day moving average. The week started by testing the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, as determined by the high on April 18 to the low on May 18 – and finished well above the 76% retracement level of 623.50, finishing the week within 10 handles of that April high. The RSI at 65 is bullish with room to get to an overbought level of 70. The MACD and its histogram are both positive, indicating a bullish trend. If the trend continues, resistance might exist at 647.22 (April’s high) and 652.75 (a triple top level from January to February of this year). Support might be found at ~609, which is the 61.8 % retracement level and the top of the Ichimoku cloud.


August Gold Future Daily Chart

The August Gold future remained in consolidation mode as it hasn’t closed outside of the 1955 – 2000 range since May 19th. Price fell out of the Ichimoku cloud to start the week, though a mid-week rally caused gold to test the bottom of the Ichimoku cloud on Friday. The MACD and RSI indicators reflect gold’s consolidating behavior, with RSI somewhat neutral at 45 and the MACD histogram staying at about 0 for the week. A continuation of the rally might experience resistance at the bottom of the cloud (1977) and then at the top of the trend channel (2000). Should gold decline, support may be found at the 61.8% and 76.4% Fib retracement levels (1946 and 1909).


Economic Reports for the week of June 19th – June 23rd

Commentary:  A shortened week due to the Juneteenth holiday Monday, though the National Association of Home Builders is set to release their Housing Market index report at 10 AM ET that morning. Housing Starts and Permits on Tuesday and the weekly Mortgage Applications number Wednesday morning round out the housing market picture. 

Federal reserve VIPs testify in front of Congress this week, with Fed Chair Powell in front of the House of Representatives Financial Committee on Wednesday and the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs on Thursday. 

Governors Lisa Cook and Philip Jefferson also testify before the Senate, on Wednesday morning. Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman speaks at a Fed Listens event on Thursday morning. The EIA is doing double duty on Thursday, with the regular Natural Gas report at 10:30 AM ET and the Petroleum report at 11 AM ET, delayed due to the federal holiday. Jobless Claims on Thursday and PMI Composite Flash on Friday could be market movers. 

Be aware that Federal Reserve Bank presidents may speak throughout the week, without having their schedule published.


Economic Reports

Monday, June 19th

8:00 AM ET: Banking Holidays – Juneteenth Holiday
10:00 AM ET: Housing Market Index

Tuesday, June 20th

8:30 AM ET: Housing Starts and Permits
11:00 AM ET: Export Inspections
4:00 PM ET: Crop Progress
4:30 PM ET: API Weekly Oil Stocks

Wednesday, June 21st

7:00 AM ET: MBA Mortgage Applications @MBAMortgage
8:00 AM ET: Bank Reserve Settlement
10:00 AM ET: Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell Speaks
10:00 AM ET: Federal Reserve Lisa D. Cook Speaks
10:00 AM ET: Federal Reserve Governor Philip N. Jefferson Speaks

Thursday, June 22nd

4:00 AM ET: Federal Reserve Governor Christopher J. Waller Speaks
8:30 AM ET: Jobless Claims***
8:30 AM ET: Current Account
8:30 AM ET: Chicago Fed National Activity Index
9:55 AM ET: Federal Reserve Governor Michelle W. Bowman Speaks
10:00 AM ET: Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell Speaks
10:00 AM ET: Existing Home Sales
10:00 AM ET: Leading Indicators
10:30 AM ET: EIA Natural Gas Report*
11:00 AM ET: Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index
11:00 AM ET: EIA Petroleum Status Report
4:30 PM ET: Fed Balance Sheet

Friday, June 23rd

8:30 AM ET: Export Sales
9:45 AM ET: PMI Composite Flash
1:00 PM ET: Baker Hughes Rig Count
3:00 PM ET: Cattle On Feed
3:00 PM ET: Cold Storage

***Market Moving Indicators

*Merit Extra Attention

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