Futures Trading Outlook: FOMC to Announce the Federal Target Rate this Week

By NinjaTrader

Coverage for the week of January 30th - February 3rd: While many anticipated reports will come out this week, we have several to focus on in the days ahead. Here’s a breakdown of the week ahead.  


E-Mini Dow Futures Weekly Chart

After the fourth quarter rally off the lows in October, the Dow seems to be in consolidation mode. The Fibonacci retracement levels from that trend indicate support at 33700 and 32772 – areas where the Dow is current trading above. The MACD and its histogram is still positive, and the RSI shows slight divergence – the recent peaks of RSI are about the same value, where the recent peaks in price show decline. An upside target, should the Dow resume the bullish trend, could be 35200, the recent high in December. Should the Dow break below the 52-week moving average, the 50% Fib retracement level at 32025 could be support.

Gasoline Futures Weekly Chart

Gasoline (RBOB) futures have been range bound sideways since late summer last year (from 2.00 to 2.80). Having crossed above the 52-week moving average 3 weeks ago, the test of the resistance area has so far failed. Should the market trend upward, targets could be the high from March in 2022 (2.974) and the highs of last year (3.594). Support can be found at 2.05 – 2.00 if the trend reverses.

Silver Futures Weekly Chart

Silver futures seem to have lost some polish as the 61% Fibonacci retracement level holds as resistance.  The longer bearish trend is intact as the recent high is consistent with the previous lower swing highs. In the shorter term, the MACD indicates bullishness as the MACD and its signal are positive, as is the difference of the two (as shown by the histogram). The RSI is trending toward an overbought level of 70, though not quite there yet. Support exists in the area between 22.70 and 22.08 (the 52-Week Moving Average and the 50% retracement level).

Japanese Yen Futures Weekly Chart

The rally in Japanese Yen futures that began in October 2022 may have hit some resistance as the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of 0.00781) has held. A peek above the 52-week moving average may not be enough to keep the Yen above it. While the MACD histogram is positive, the MACD just crossed the 0 line, although the differential between the two may be contracting (a weakening bullish indication). The RSI has turned down well short of the overbought level of 70. Should this rally stall and reverse, 0.00755 could be a target to the downside. A continuation of the uptrend could see resistance at 0.00807 at the 61% Fib retracement level.

Economic Reports for the week of January 30th – February 3rd

Wednesday headlines the big event, as the FOMC announces the Federal target rate at 2pm ET. With the target rate probability (as determined by the CME via trading in fed fund rate futures) at 99% for a 25-basis point hike at the time of this writing, the press conference 30 minutes later could be where the market sees volatility and/or gets a sense of direction. Reports measuring the manufacturing sector of the economy arrive throughout the week as Dallas Fed, Chicago PMI and S&P Global US PMI Manufacturing are released shortly after regular market open on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.  The monthly employment situation report is also one to watch at 8:30am Friday morning.

*** = Most impactful reports
* = Somewhat impactful reports
^ = Housing-related reports

Date Economic Reports
Monday, January 30th 10:30 AM ET: Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey
11:00 AM ET: Export Inspections
Tuesday, January 31st FOMC Meeting Begins
08:30 AM ET: Employment Cost Index
9:00 AM ET: Case-Shiller Home Price Index
9:00 AM ET: FHFA House Price Index
9:45 AM ET: Chicago PMI
10:00 AM ET: Consumer Confidence
03:00 PM ET: Farm Prices
Wednesday, February 1st 7:00 AM ET: Bank Reserve Settlement
7:00 AM ET: MBA Mortgage Applications
8:15 AM ET: ADP Employment Report*
8:30 AM ET: Treasury Refunding Announcement
9:45 AM ET: PMI Manufacturing Final
10:00 AM ET: ISM Manufacturing Index
10:30 AM ET: EIA Petroleum Status Report
2:00 PM ET: FOMC Announcement***
2:30 PM ET: Fed Chair Press Conference ***
3:00 PM ET: Grain Crushings
Thursday, February 2nd 8:30 AM ET: Export Sales
8:30 AM ET: Productivity and Costs
10:00 AM ET: Factory Orders
10:30 AM ET: EIA Natural Gas Report
4:30 PM ET: Fed Balance Sheet
Friday, February 3rd 8:30 AM ET, Employment Situation *
9:45 AM ET, PMI Composite Flash
10:00 AM ET, ISM Services Index
1:00 PM ET, Baker Hughes Rig Count

Companies Reporting Earnings for the week of January 30th – February 3rd

345 companies report earnings next week, but the focus is on FAANG (Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, Google) stocks as Facebook (now known as Meta) reports on Wednesday afternoon, and Apple, Amazon, Netflix and Google report Thursday after the close. This could affect E-Mini S&P and NASDAQ 100 futures, as all three are components of those indices. Apple is also in the Dow, so YM futures may see some volatility as well. Other Dow stock reporting are Caterpillar and McDonalds on Tuesday. Oil companies ExxonMobil, ConocoPhillips, Marathon Petroleum and Phillips 66 report on Tuesday and Thursday.

BMO = Before Market Open
AMC = After Market Close

Date Earnings Reports
Monday, January 30th Whirlpool Corp. (WHR): $3.43 EPS Estimate, $5.12B Revenue Estimate (AMC)
Tuesday, January 30th Caterpillar, Inc. (CAT): $3.95 EPS Estimate, $16.08B Revenue Estimate (BMO)
Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM): $3.32 EPS Estimate, $99.65B Revenue Estimate (BMO)
General Motors Corp. (GM): $1.63 EPS Estimate, $40.30B Revenue Estimate (BMO)
Marathon Petroleum Corp. (MPC): $5.54 EPS Estimate, $32.20B Revenue Estimate (BMO)
McDonalds Corp. (MCD): $2.45 EPS Estimate, $5.60B Revenue Estimate (BMO)
Pfizer, Inc. (PFE): $1.05 EPS Estimate, $24.43B Revenue Estimate (BMO)
Phillips 66 (PSX): $4.34 EPS Estimate, $36.85B Revenue Estimate (BMO)
United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS): $3.58 EPS Estimate, $28.17B Revenue Estimate (BMO)
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD): $0.67 EPS Estimate, $5.51B Revenue Estimate (AMC)
Wednesday, February 1st Humana, Inc. (HUM): $1.10 EPS Estimate, $5.53B Revenue Estimate (BMO)
T-Mobile US Inc. (TMUS): $1.10 EPS Estimate, $21.01B Revenue Estimate (BMO)
Allstate Corp. (ALL): $-1.37 EPS Estimate, $11.43B Revenue Estimate (AMC)
Meta Platforms, Inc. (META): $2.12 EPS Estimate, $31.80B Revenue Estimate (AMC)
Metlife Inc. (MET): $1.76 EPS Estimate, $16.95B Revenue Estimate (AMC)
Thursday, February 2nd Bristol-Myers Squibb Company (BMY): $1.72 EPS Estimate, $11.19B Revenue Estimate (BMO)
ConocoPhillips (COP): $2.77 EPS Estimate, $18.02B Revenue Estimate (BMO)
Eli Lilly & Co. (LLY): $1.91 EPS Estimate, $7.36B Revenue Estimate (BMO)
Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL): $0.88 EPS Estimate, $76.60B Revenue Estimate (AMC)
Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN): $1.17 EPS Estimate, $145.40B Revenue Estimate (AMC)
Apple, Inc. (AAPL): $0.15 EPS Estimate, $122.05B Revenue Estimate (AMC)
Ford Motor Company (F): $0.59 EPS Estimate, $40.36B Revenue Estimate (AMC)
Starbucks Corp. (SBUX): $0.77 EPS Estimate, $8.79B Revenue Estimate (AMC)
Friday, February 3rd CIGNA Corp. (CI): $4.84 EPS Estimate, $45.79B Revenue Estimate (BMO)

Be sure to check back weekly and follow us on our social media accounts to receive alerts of our Futures Outlooks week to week.

Get Started with NinjaTrader

NinjaTrader supports more than 500,000 traders worldwide with a powerful and user-friendly trading platform, discount futures brokerage and world-class support. NinjaTrader is always free to use for advanced charting and strategy backtesting through an immersive trading simulator.

Download NinjaTrader’s award-winning trading platform and get started with a free trading demo with real-time market data today!