Futures Trading Outlook: Major Retail Report Earnings this Week, Could Influence Stock Index Futures

By NinjaTrader Team


Coverage for the week of August 21st – August 25th: In this week’s coverage, we analyze the pullbacks in the weekly charts of Micro NASDAQ 100, silver, crude oil and British pound futures. We also examine the economic reports and earnings releases expected next week.

September Micro NASDAQ 100 Future Weekly Chart

The September Micro NASDAQ 100 future continued the pullback that started at the beginning of July, dipping below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at 14878. While NASDAQ seems to be in a bullish state when considering the price is well above the 52-week moving average, the 200-week moving average, and the Ichimoku cloud, the RSI and MACD indicators tell a different story. RSI crossed below the overbought level of 70 after showing bearish divergence (increasing peak highs on price with decreasing peak highs on the RSI). The MACD just crossed below its signal line, confirming (for now) the bearish trend. Should this downtrend continue, the 38.2% Fib retracement level of 14146 could act as  support (which coincides with the high from August 2022). A resistance target on the upside could be the April 2022 high of 15796.


September Silver Future Weekly Chart

September silver futures finished last week slightly above even, attempting to get back to the supportive trendline, but also failing to close on the bearish side of the Ichimoku cloud. While the last two weeks’ candles suggest the possibility of a three-bar bullish morning star reversal pattern, last week could also just be a pause in a downward trend that’s existed since mid-July. The 50% Fibonacci retracement level (22.40) seems to be an important support level, as silver has tested it for the second time now and succeeded in closing above it. RSI and MACD are trending in line with the price of silver, giving no strong indications of bullishness nor bearishness. If silver continues the downward trend, look for support at the 61.8% Fibonacci level (~21.40). If it reverses, resistance could be found at the intersection of the 38% Fib retracement level and the 200-week moving average (~23.40).


September British Pound Future Weekly Chart

The September British pound future showed a pause in the month-long down trend, forming a bullish harami pattern (a green candle with a body that fits between the open and close of the previous red candle). This downtrend comes after the British pound failed to cross above the 200-week simple moving average (which was slightly higher than the 61.8 % Fibonacci retracement level, another area of resistance). The RSI failed to get above 70 (an overbought level) when it made recent highs, suggesting weakness. The MACD just crossed below its signal line, also suggesting possible bearishness in this market. Should the downtrend continue, support might be found at the 50% Fib retracement level (1.2414) and further along at the 52-week moving average (~1.2230). If the pound continues this reversal, resistance might be found at the 61.8% Fib level again (1.2873).


October Crude Oil Future Weekly Chart

October crude oil continues to be range bound between $63.40 and $83.65, as sellers pushed the market back down, forming a three-bar evening star reversal pattern (a long bullish candle, followed by a doji or small-bodied candle, finishing off with a bearish candle that retraces back through most or all of the first candle). This coincides with the entry into the Ichimoku cloud, finding no traction and the possibility of a pullback out of the cloud. The top of the range is just seven ticks north of the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, suggesting a reinforcement of resistance. The RSI and MACD are in line with a consolidating market, not very helpful in determining a directional bias here. Should the market continue its downward motion, look for the 52-week moving average (~77.75) as support. If crude oil can break out of the top of the recent trading range, resistance might be seen at the 50% Fibonacci level (89.81).


Companies Reporting Earnings August 21st – August 25th

Date Companies Earnings
Monday, August 21st Zoom Video Communications, Inc. (ZM): $1.05 EPS Estimate, $1.11B Revenue Estimate (AMC)
Tuesday, August 22nd Macy’s, Inc. (M): $0.13 EPS Estimate, $5.08B Revenue Estimate (BMO) *
Lowe’s Companies, Inc. (LOW): $4.49 EPS Estimate, $25.02B Revenue Estimate (BMO) *
Dick’s Sporting Goods, Inc. (DKS): $3.75 EPS Estimate, $3.23B Revenue Estimate (BMO) 
BJ’s Wholesale Club, Inc. (BJ): $0.90 EPS Estimate, $5.16B Revenue Estimate (BMO) 
Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL): $2.86 EPS Estimate, $2.41B Revenue Estimate (AMC)
Urban Outfitters, Inc. (URBN): $0.89 EPS Estimate, $1.25B Revenue Estimate (AMC)
Wednesday, August 23rd Advance Auto Parts Inc. (AAP): $1.72 EPS Estimate, $2.67B Revenue Estimate (BMO) 
Kohl’s Corporation (KSS): $0.24 EPS Estimate, $3.69B Revenue Estimate (BMO)
Foot Locker, Inc. (FL): $0.04 EPS Estimate, $1.87B Revenue Estimate (BMO)
Williams-Sonoma, Inc. (WSM): $2.76 EPS Estimate, $1.96B Revenue Estimate (BMO)
Bath & Body Works, Inc. (BBWI): $0.33 EPS Estimate, $1.57B Revenue Estimate (BMO)
NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA): $2.07 EPS Estimate, $11.09B Revenue Estimate (AMC) 
Thursday, August 24th Thursday, August 24th
Friday, August 25th N/A

Commentary: A majority of the bigger (greater than $1B in revenue) companies reporting earnings next week fall in the retail sector. Macy’s, Lowe’s Dick’s Sporting Goods and BJ’s Wholesale Club all report before market open on Tuesday and could influence stock index futures price movement depending on not only earnings results but also outlook on their corner of the retail space. 

This extends through Wednesday with Kohl’s, Foot Locker, Williams-Sonoma and Bath and Body Works, all representing pre-market reports. Dollar Tree reports on Thursday morning, with the Gap and Nordstrom reporting after market close Thursday. Pay attention to NVIDIA on Wednesday, as that could influence NASDAQ and S&P 500 futures after market close. Canadian companies begin reporting with TD Bank and Royal Bank of Canada reporting before market open on Thursday.

Economic Reports for the week of August 21st – August 25th

Date Economic Reports
Monday, August 21st 11:00 AM ET: Export Inspections
4:00 PM ET: Crop Progress
Tuesday, August 22nd 7:30 AM ET: Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin Speaks
10:00 AM ET: Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index *
10:00 AM ET: Existing Home Sales
1:00 PM ET: Money Supply 
2:30 PM ET: Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee Speaks
2:30 PM ET: Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman Speaks
4:30 PM ET: API Weekly Oil Stocks
Wednesday, August 23rd  7:00 AM ET: MBA Mortgage Applications
9:45 AM ET: PMI Composite Flash *
10:00 AM ET: New Home Sales ***
10:30 AM ET: EIA Petroleum Status Report *
3:00 PM ET: Cold Storage
Thursday, August 24th 8:30 AM ET: Jobless Claims ***
8:30 AM ET: Durable Goods Orders *
8:30 AM ET: Chicago Fed National Activity Index
10:30 AM ET: EIA Natural Gas Report *
11:00 AM ET: Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index
4:30 PM ET: Fed Balance Sheet *
Friday, August 25th 10:00 AM ET: Consumer Sentiment *
10:05 AM ET: Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks ***
1:00 PM ET: Baker Hughes Rig Count

*** Market Moving Indicators
* Merit Extra Attention

Commentary: The Jackson Hole Economic Forum begins on Thursday in Wyoming, with “Structural Shifts in the Economy” as the main theme this year. Chair Powell will speak Friday morning, and his comments on the outlook of the economy could introduce some volatility in all markets. 

Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin speaks early Tuesday morning, and Fed Governor Michelle Bowman and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee both speak at a “Fed Listens” event in Chicago later that morning. 

Manufacturing is covered this week with Richmond Fed Manufacturing on Tuesday morning, PMI Composite Flash on Wednesday morning, and Kansas City Fed Manufacturing on Thursday morning. 

Friday’s University of Michigan Sentiment report might get overshadowed by Powell’s comments, which may begin five minutes later. Existing Homes Sales at 10 AM ET on Tuesday and New Home Sales at the same time on Wednesday may give insight on the Housing market. Be aware that comments from central bankers coming from Jackson Hole could move the markets at any time of the day.

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