Futures Trading Outlook: Pullbacks in Micro Russell 2000 Index, Copper Futures

By NinjaTrader Team

In this week’s coverage, we analyze the pullbacks in the Micro Russell 2000 Index and copper futures. We also examine the economic reports expected next week.

Please Note: 
Commentary and charts reflect data at the time of writing (Friday, May 31 at 3 PM ET), and market conditions may change by the publication of this analysis.

June Russell 2000 Index Futures Weekly Chart 

June Russell 2000 Index futures finished down for the week, stopping short of the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the uptrend that began in November 2023. The Russell tested the 26-week moving average at 2,045.7 before finishing above 2,066. The MACD histogram reflects continued weakening in the bullish trend that began in early April–though still shows bullishness as the MACD itself is still positive. The RSI is showing a neutral print at 54 and trending down. Should the 26-week moving average fail to hold as support, look for support at the intersection of the 52-week moving average, the supportive trend line, and the 38.2% retracement level (~1,982). A reversal to the bullish trend might see resistance at the recent peak high (2,167) and long-term peak high (2,250).

Russell 2000 Index futuresJune Russell 2000 Index futures weekly chart

July Copper Futures Weekly Chart

July copper futures continued to trend downward, rallying as high as 4.90 before finishing the week just above 4.60. This move represents a cross below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the previous uptrend that started in mid-February. The MACD histogram declined for the second week in a row, indicating a weakening bull trend that’s consistent with sharp pullbacks. The RSI also continued to show weakness after the previous week’s cross below the overbought level of 70. If this bearish trend continues, support might be found at the 50% Fib level (4.4568) which coincides with a previous peak high from January 2023. A reversal to the bullish trend could see resistance at the 23.6% Fib level (4.848).

Copper futuresJuly copper futures weekly chart

Economic Reports for the week of June 3  – June 7

A relatively quiet week is expected as the Federal Reserve members experience the blackout period before the next FOMC meeting. The beginning of every month usually brings two themes: Manufacturing and labor.

Monday starts with Manufacturing PMI from ISM and S&P Global, which are expected to meet or beat the previous month’s numbers (ISM: 50.9 Forecast vs. 50.9 Previous, S&P Global: 49.8 Forecast vs. 49.2 Previous).

Construction Spending is also expected to grow 0.2% vs. previous month’s 0.2% contraction. Factory Orders on Tuesday are expected to weaken (0.7% Forecast vs. 0.8 Previous). Services PMI data drops on Wednesday from ISM (51.0 Forecast vs. 49.4 Previous) and S&P Global (54.8 Forecast vs. 54.8 Previous).

Labor information comes in the form of JOLTS on Tuesday (8.40M Forecast vs. 8.49M Previous), ADP Employment Change on Wednesday (175k FC vs. 192k Prev.), Jobless Claims on Thursday (215k FC vs. 219k Prev.), and the Employment Situation on Friday (185k FC vs. 175k Prev.). Forecasts for labor information is mixed, as these reports cover different time frames and data types. Energy traders should pay close attention to the EIA Crude Oil report on Wednesday after the results of the OPEC+ meeting that occurred this past weekend.

DateEconomic Reports
Monday, June 3 9:45 AM ET: PMI Manufacturing Final ***
 10:00 AM ET: ISM Manufacturing Index ***
 10:00 AM ET: Construction Spending *
 11:00 AM ET: Export Inspections
 3:00 PM ET: Fats & Oils
 3:00 PM ET: Grain Crushings
 4:00 PM ET: Crop Progress
Tuesday, June 4 10:00 AM ET: Factory Orders
 10:00 AM ET: JOLTS
 4:30 PM ET: API Weekly Oil Stocks
Wednesday, June 5 7:00 AM ET: MBA Mortgage Applications
 8:15 AM ET: ADP Employment Report
 9:45 AM ET: PMI Composite Flash
 10:00 AM ET: ISM Services Index
 10:30 AM ET: EIA Petroleum Status Report
Thursday, June 6 7:30 AM ET: Challenger Job-Cut Report 
 8:30 AM ET: Jobless Claims
 8:30 AM ET: International Trade in Goods and Services
 8:30 AM ET: Productivity and Costs
 8:30 AM ET: Export Sales
 10:30 AM ET: EIA Natural Gas Report
 4:30 PM ET: Fed Balance Sheet
Friday, June 7 8:30 AM ET: Employment Situation
 10:00 AM ET: Wholesale Inventories (Preliminary)
 1:00 PM ET: Baker Hughes Rig Count
 3:00 PM ET: Consumer Credit

*** Market Moving Indicators
* Merit Extra Attention

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