Futures Trading Outlook: Treasury Bond Futures Stall

By NinjaTrader Team

In this week’s coverage, we analyze the bullish trend in the Micro Nasdaq 100 Index, and the stall in U.S. Treasury Bond futures. We also examine the economic reports expected next week.

Please Note: 
Commentary and charts reflect data at the time of writing (Friday, June 21 at 1 PM ET), and market conditions may change by the publication of this analysis.

September Micro Nasdaq 100 Index Futures Weekly Chart 

September Micro Nasdaq 100 Index futures made all-time highs last week, ticking above the top of the trend channel that began at the beginning of 2023, before closing above the upper Bollinger band. This follows the previous week’s break above the upper Bollinger band, which combined with the fact that the Bollinger bands are widening, suggests that the bullish trend could continue. Last week’s close around 20,000 marks a 61.8% Fibonacci Extension level of the previous uptrend applied to the recent lows in April. The MACD showed a bullish cross in positive territory, suggesting this trend has room to run. RSI (at 68+) nears the overbought level of 70 and trades along with price. Should this trend in price continue, look for resistance at the top of the trend channel again (~20,350 – 20,500) and at the 76% Fib extension level (20,516). A retracement suggests support at the 50% Fib level (~19,430) and the 26-week moving average (~18,500).

Micro Nasdaq 100 Index futuresSeptember Micro Nasdaq 100 Index futures weekly chart

September U.S. Treasury Bond Futures Weekly Chart

September U.S. Treasury Bond futures showed a slight retreat last week after the previous week’s big gains on the Fed’s dovish statement. This keeps the resistance line formed by connecting the highs in December 2023 and February 2024 intact. While bonds are still above the converging 26-week and 52-week moving averages, the 38.2% Fibonacci extension level has held as resistance. The MACD flashed a bullish cross signal two weeks ago, which suggests a continuation to the bullish trend. The RSI reflects price trend and indicates a slightly bullish bias. If this market breaks above this trendline, resistance might be met at the top of the Ichimoku cloud (121’04) and at the 50% Fib extension level (122’03). A reverse to the downside could see support at the 23.6% Fib extension level (117’07).

Treasury Bond futuresSeptember U.S. Treasury Bond futures weekly chart

Economic Reports for the week of June 24 - 28

The market moving economic news is back-loaded this week, with the final Q1 ‘24 GDP revision and Jobless Claims on Thursday morning, and the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) report on Friday. PCE is considered to be the favored inflation measure by the Fed, and is forecast to come in at 01.% , the lowest in 6 months.

The manufacturing sector is represented by the Dallas Fed on Monday, Richmond Fed on Tuesday, Kansas City Fed on Thursday, and Chicago PMI on Friday. Consumer surveys on Tuesday from the Conference Board and Friday from the University of Michigan could influence the market.

The Conference Board’s report is expected to decline from 102 to 100.2, while the U of M’s report is forecast to be slightly higher than the previous month’s (65.9 vs. 65.6). Michelle Bowman, Lisa Cook, Thomas Barkin and Mary Daly are Fed members set to speak next week, though other Fed members may elect to voice their opinions at any time.

DateEconomic Reports
Monday, June 24 10:30 AM ET: Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey
 11:00 AM ET: Export Inspections
 2:00 PM ET: San Francisco Fed Reserve Bank President Mary Daly Speaks
 4:00 PM ET: Crop Progress
Tuesday, June 25 8:30 AM ET: Chicago Fed National Activity Index
 9:00 AM ET: FHFA House Price Index
 9:00 AM ET: Case-Shiller Home Price Index
 10:00 AM ET: Consumer Confidence *
 10:00 AM ET: Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
 12:00 PM ET: Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook Speaks
 1:00 PM ET: Money Supply *
 2:15 PM ET: Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman Speaks
 3:00 PM ET: Cold Storage
 4:30 PM ET: API Weekly Oil Stocks
Wednesday, June 26 7:00 AM ET: MBA Mortgage Applications
 10:00 AM ET: New Home Sales *
 10:30 AM ET: EIA Petroleum Status Report ***
 11:00 AM ET: Survey of Business Uncertainty
Thursday, June 27 8:30 AM ET: Jobless Claims ***
 8:30 AM ET: GDP ***
 8:30 AM ET: Corporate Profits
 8:30 AM ET: Wholesale Inventories (Advance)
 8:30 AM ET: Retail Inventories (Advance)
 8:30 AM ET: International Trade in Goods and Services
 8:30 AM ET: Durable Goods Orders *
 8:30 AM ET: Export Sales
 10:00 AM ET: Pending Home Sales Index
 10:30 AM ET: EIA Natural Gas Report *
 11:00 AM ET: Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index
 3:00 PM ET: Hogs & Pigs
 4:30 PM ET: Fed Balance Sheet
Friday, June 28 6:40 AM ET: Richmond Fed Bank President Thomas Barkin Speaks
 8:30 AM ET: Personal Income and Outlays ***
 9:45 AM ET: Chicago PMI *
 10:00 AM ET: Consumer Sentiment ***
 12:00 PM ET: Grain Stocks
 12:00 PM ET: Planted Acreage
 1:00 PM ET: Baker Hughes Rig Count
 3:00 PM ET: Farm Prices

*** Market Moving Indicators
* Merit Extra Attention

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