Futures Trading Outlook: GDP, Jobless Claims Feature in this Week's Economic Releases

Coverage for the week of February 20th - February 24th: This week, our analysts review technical trends for the week ahead for Micro NASDAQ 100 futures, the 30-year treasury bond futures, micro bitcoin futures and RBOB gasoline futures. They also expand on company earnings and economic reports for the coming week.

Micro NASDAQ 100 Futures Daily Chart

The Micro NASDAQ 100 futures attempted to test the 38% Fibonacci retracement level (using the December 2021 high and the October 2022 low as a downtrend) a second time last week and failed, finishing the week trading around the 200-day exponential moving average. The RSI shows bearish divergence: recent highs in the RSI are decreasing, while recent highs in price show sideways movement. The MACD histogram indicates a trend change to bearish as it dips below the zero line. Should this pullback in price continue, support at 12072 (the 23% Fib retracement) and at the 50-day EMA, currently at 11985. Targets on the upside (after breaking through 12990) could be 13730 (50% retracement level) and the August high of 13933.

30-Year Treasury Bond Futures Daily Chart

The 30-year U.S. Treasury bond futures is reaching a critical area of support 124’12, which has already been tested in early January. The recent cross below the 50-day exponential moving average is bearish, with the last seven trading days seeing lower highs and lower lows. Bearish divergence is seen in the RSI indicator – with lower lows on the RSI where price has yet to make a comparable lower low. The MACD shows bearish times as well, with the MACD, signal line and histogram all in negative territory. Should the market rally, expect some resistance at the 50-day moving average (currently at 128’07). Further bearish action could target 117’15, the low in the October.

Micro Bitcoin Futures Daily Chart

Micro Bitcoin futures continue to rally with the cross above the 200-day exponential moving average.  The MACD is poised for a cross above its signal line, which would be a bullish indication. The RSI is troubling though – while bitcoin is making higher swing highs, the RSI is seeing lower swing highs, which could indicate a weakening bull trend. A continuation of the bull trend could experience resistance at 27550 (the 23% Fibonacci retracement from the high in November 2021 to the low a year later). If trend swings to the downside, look for support at the 50-day EMA (currently at 20966).

RBOB Gasoline Future Daily Chart

Gasoline futures have been a 65-cent trading range since September, trading between 2.25 and 2.90, with price currently halfway between those borders at 2.57. While MACD seemed ready to indicate a trend change to bullish, the last two trading days of last week kept the indicator bearish. RSI is respecting the price action, trending downward to 43 (not quite oversold yet). An unconventional head and shoulders has appeared, so should a break of the neckline occur, the measured move (from the top of the head to the neckline, applied to the point on the neckline where the downside break occurs) indicates a possible target of 2.15. Expect resistance at 2.90 should the trend turn bullish.

Economic Reports for the week of February 20^th – February 24^th

Thursday February 23^rd is an important economic report day as both jobless claims and GDP will be released at 8:30am ET. This is the second (revised estimate) release for Q4 2022 GDP, with the Advance number at 2.9%. Watch to see if this first revision increases or decreases, as a trend may influence Fed policy for setting the Fed Funds rate. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) performs double duty on Thursday morning, releasing both the Natural Gas report and the Petroleum Status report.  Housing market-related reports releasing this week include Existing Home Sales (Tuesday), MBA Mortgage Applications (Wednesday), and New Home Sales (Friday).

Speaking engagements by Federal Reserve presidents include NY Fed president John Williams (Wednesday), Atlanta Fed president Raphael Bostic (Thursday) and Cleveland Fed president Loretta Mester. Note that this may not include all Federal Reserve appearances next week, and that market volatility can increase when these speakers comment on the economy and Fed policy.

Additionally, Monday is a bank holiday in the United States; check the exchanges for possible shortened trading hours.

*** Market Moving Indicators
* Merit Extra Attention

Companies Reporting Earnings for the week of February 20^th – February 24^th

Retail companies take center stage this week, led by Walmart (in both the Dow Jones and S&P 500 indices) on Tuesday morning. Baidu, eBay, Ali Baba and Wayfair reporting midweek represent e-commerce – watch these results for insight into how consumers are spending on retail items.

Home Depot represents the other Dow Jones company reporting this week, also on Tuesday morning—be aware of potential volatility in Dow Jones futures both when the earnings reports are released and at regular market open (9:30am ET).  Commercial real estate is represented by CBRE and Cushman & Wakefield on Thursday. Canadian banks earning season starts with CIBC on Friday before market open.

BMO = Before Market Open
AMC = After Market Close

* indicates that this company is in the S&P 500 Index

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