Futures Trading Outlook: CPI, PPI Reports Headline the Week Ahead

By NinjaTrader

Coverage for the week of February 13th - February 17th: Our analysts reviewed the markets and are forecasting possible bullish moves across various futures. Read more below.

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Daily Chart

The E-mini S&P 500 futures shows early signs of breaking out of a bear trend that dominated in 2022.  The lower swing highs and swing lows of 2022 have been replaced by higher swing lows and highs in 2023. Price is well above the Ichimoku cloud, as well as both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages. The 50-day moving average just crossed above the 200-day moving average last week, which is generally considered a bullish indication. The Fibonacci Extension of the previous bullish trend (from the low in October to the high in December) applied to the most recent bullish move (from the low on December 22) indicated 61.8% extension at 4183, which held as resistance. This coincided with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) failing to achieve an overbought status at 70. Should the current trend continue, support is possible at 4030 at the 50-day moving average.

Natural Gas Futures Weekly Chart

Natural gas futures have found a base for the last seven sessions, pausing a five month slide in price. It took 3 months for NG to lose half its value, and another 10 weeks to lose 50% again. Natural Gas hasn’t seen the bullish side of the 50-day moving average since December 16th, in the midst of an island reversal. The RSI does give a bullish indication with the cross above the oversold value of 30. Should this be the start of a bullish trend, expect resistance at the 50-day moving average, as well as 4.34 (the 23% Fibonacci retracement level from the high in August to the recent low earlier this month).

Japanese Yen Futures Weekly Chart

Japanese Yen futures is in pullback mode after seeing a rally off the October low. Price is encountering a support area in the 0.007600 -0.0076340 area, as denoted by the 23% Fibonacci retracement level, the top of the Ichimoku cloud, and the 50-day moving average. Bearish divergence in the RSI preceded this pullback, but with the current reading of 46.95 and sideways trend, RSI doesn’t give much guidance here. If the pullback continues, look for support at 0.0074575 as the 38% Fib retracement.

Wheat Futures Weekly Chart

Wheat futures have been in a bearish trend since May of 2022, trading as high as 1331 to the low of 712.50 in December. After finding resistance at the 50-day moving average for over a week, price decisively broke through last week (a bullish indication). This coincides with a cross into the Ichimoku cloud – getting through to the topside of the cloud would further a bullish case for wheat. RSI recently showed bullish divergence by making higher lows while wheat was making lower lows. This might explain the pivot in trend in late January. Should the pivot to the bullish trend continue, resistance could be found at the 200-day moving average as well at 857 (the 23% Fibonacci retracement level from the May 2022 highs).

Economic Reports for the week of February 13th – February 17th

Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) are the major economic releases this week, coming in Tuesday and Thursday mornings at 8:30 am ET. Because these reports give insight into whether or not the Fed’s actions are reigning in inflation, expect volatility in all futures markets.  Wednesday morning could see multiple reactions as no less than eight reports are released, from 7 am into the Opening range (10 am). Federal Reserve speakers this week include two Board Governors as well as Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester (on Thursday). Other Federal Reserve Governors/Presidents may have speaking engagements/interviews that arise since the writing of this brief.

*** = Most impactful reports
* = Somewhat impactful reports
^ = Housing-related reports

Date Economic Reports
Monday, February 13th 8:00 AM ET: Federal Reserve Governor Michelle W. Bowman Speech
11:00 AM ET: Export Inspections
Tuesday, February 14th 6:00 AM ET: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
8:30 AM ET: CPI***
11:00 AM ET: 4-Week Bill Announcement
Wednesday, February 15th 7:00 AM ET: Bank Reserve Settlement
7:00 AM ET: MBA Mortgage Applications
8:30 AM ET: Empire State Manufacturing Index
8:30 AM ET: Retail Sales
9:15 AM ET: Industrial Production
10:00 AM ET: Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations
10:00 AM ET: Business Inventories
10:00 AM ET: Housing Market Index
10:30 AM ET: EIA Petroleum Status Report
1:00 PM ET: 20-Yr Bond Auction
4:00 PM ET: Treasury International Capital
Thursday, February 16th 8:30 AM ET: Export Sales
8:30 AM ET: Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET: Housing Starts and Permits
8:30 AM ET: PPI-Final Demand***
8:30 AM ET: Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
8:45 AM ET: Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Loretta Mester Speech
10:30 AM ET: EIA Natural Gas Report
4:00 PM ET: Federal Reserve Governor Lisa D. Cook Speech
4:30 PM ET: Fed Balance Sheet
6:00 PM ET: Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Loretta Mester Speech
Friday, February 17th 8:30 AM ET: Import and Export Prices
8:30 AM ET: Leading Indicators
10:00 AM ET: E-Commerce Retail Sales
10:00 AM ET: Quarterly Services Survey
1:00 PM ET: Baker Hughes Rig Count

Companies Reporting Earnings for the week of February 13th – February 17th

Coca-Cola reports Tuesday morning as the sole representative of the Dow Jones Index this week.   Barrick Gold Corp could see increased revenues due to Golds 12% advance off the lows in October.  Hospitality stocks take a turn as Marriott, Hyatt and Airbnb report. Cisco Systems is the largest of the companies listed here – as it is a member of both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100, there could be some volatility in those index futures after markets Wednesday when it reports earnings.

BMO = Before Market Open
AMC = After Market Close

* indicates that this company is in the S&P 500 Index

Date Earnings Reports
Monday, February 13th Avis Budget Group, Inc. (CAR): $6.50 EPS Estimate, $2.71B Revenue Estimate (AMC)*
Tuesday, February 14th Coca-Cola Company (KO): $0.45 EPS Estimate, $9.92B Revenue Estimate (BMO)*
Marriott International, Inc. (MAR): $1.84 EPS Estimate, $5.61B Revenue Estimate (BMO)*
Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB): $0.27 EPS Estimate, $1.86 B Revenue Estimate (AMC)
Suncor Energy, Inc. (SU): $1.26 EPS Estimate, $9.65B Revenue Estimate (AMC)
Wednesday, February 15th Barrick Gold Corporation (GOLD): $0.13 EPS Estimate, $3.15B Revenue Estimate (BMO)
Kraft Heinz Company (KHC): $0.77 EPS Estimate, $7.14B Revenue Estimate (BMO)*
Sunoco, Inc. (SUN): ($0.77) EPS Estimate, $5.86B Revenue Estimate (BMO)
Cisco Systems (CSCO): 0.76 EPS Estimate, $13.43B Revenue Estimate (AMC)*
Marathon Oil Corp. (MRO): $0.87 EPS Estimate, $1.75B Revenue Estimate (AMC)*
Thursday, February 16th Hyatt Hotels Corp. (H): $0.32 EPS Estimate, $1.50B Revenue Estimate (BMO)
Applied Materials, Inc. (AMAT): $1.93 EPS Estimate, $6.69B Revenue Estimate (AMC)*
Consolidated Edison (ED): $0.79 EPS Estimate, $3.53B Revenue Estimate (AMC)*
Friday, February 17th Deere & Company (DE): $5.51 EPS Estimate, $11.44B Revenue Estimate (BMO)*

Be sure to check back weekly and follow us on our social media accounts to receive alerts of our Futures Outlooks week to week.

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