Futures Trading Outlook: Yen Futures Under the Spotlight With Natural Gas, Silver

By NinjaTrader Team


In this week’s coverage, we analyze the new high in the Dow Jones Index futures, and the break downs in natural gas, silver and Japanese yen futures. We also examine the economic reports and earnings announcements expected next week.

Please Note: 
Commentary and charts reflect data at the time of writing. Market conditions are subject to change and may not reflect all market activity.


March E-Mini Dow Jones Industrial Index Futures Weekly Chart

March E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Index futures finished the week unchanged, retaining its bullish bias as the long wick suggests buyers rejected low prices more than sellers rejected the higher prices. This trend has been in place since early November 2023, and keeps the Dow well above its 52- and 200-week moving averages and the Ichimoku cloud. MACD remains bullish with no signs of weakness. The RSI remained in overbought mode and reflects the trend in price. If the trend continues, look for an extension target from the previous notable uptrend (October 7, 2022 to December 2, 2022) at ~39,215. A reversal might find support at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level (37,513) and further at the 38.2% Fib level (36,607).

March E-mini Dow Jones futures

March Natural Gas Futures Weekly Chart

March natural gas futures finished lower last week, getting closer to the recent low of 1.707 made back in the middle of December. Natural gas is getting pinched by the floor defined by the recent low, and the resistance line that started in August 2022. NG is also trading well below the 200-week moving average and the Ichimoku cloud, while the 52-week moving average is not that far above price. The MACD is uninteresting, showing a consolidation mode for natural gas. The RSI showed some signs of life with the recent rebound of the December lows, but is returning to a bearish trend and is approaching the oversold level of 30. If this market can rebound, look for resistance at the upper part of the descending triangle (~2.145) and at the 52-week moving average (~2.785).

March natural gas futures

March Japanese Yen Futures Weekly Chart

March Japanese yen futures continued to weaken last week, closing just above the low and completing the sixth consecutive down candle for 2024. This took the yen very close to the recent low from mid-November last year, and keeps the yen well below the 52- and 200-week moving averages, and the Ichimoku cloud. The MACD and its signal line are almost equal, which could be a bearish cross if there is follow through next week. The RSI looks like there may be some bullish divergence, shown by the recent lows on price being about equal but the recent low in RSI is above the previous RSI low peak. This could be deceptive, as RSI may continue to trend downward and erase evidence of divergence in doing so. If this market reverses, resistance may be found at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level (0.0070573) and further up at the 52-week moving average (~0.0072480). If the downward move continues, support might be found at the psychological level of 0.006600). 

March Japanese yen futures

March Silver Futures Weekly Chart

March silver futures finished down on the week, although buyers rejected prices nearing the supportive trendline that began in August 2022. This was the first week that silver traded entirely below the Ichimoku cloud since the week of October 13, 2022. This is bearish for silver, especially figuring that it is trading below the 52- and 200-week moving averages. The MACD gave a bearish signal about a month ago, when it crossed below its signal line (coinciding with the first close below the Ichimoku cloud). With RSI at ~44 and trending down, a bearish trend looks like it may continue. If it does, support can be found at the trendline (~21.95) and below that, at the recent low of 21.20. If silver manages to recover and trade back into the cloud, resistance might be met at the 52-week moving average (~24.17) and the 200-week moving average (~24.70).

March silver futures

Companies Reporting Earnings February 12 – February 16

A majority of the 400 companies reporting earnings this week have revenues well under $1 Billion, so if these companies show weakness in earnings and/or revenues, expect the Russell 2000 Index futures to suffer as well. Only two Dow Jones companies are reporting–Coca-Cola on Tuesday morning and Cisco Systems after market close on Wednesday–so look out for possible volatility in the YM futures at those times. 

Energy companies Sunoco and Occidental Petroleum report Wednesday, so there may be insight into the crude oil supply/demand equation during those earnings calls. Other sectors represented well are hospitality (MGM, Airbnb, Marriott and Hyatt) and the automotive industry (Avis, Goodyear Tire and AutoNation). Insurance companies also get their turn with AIG and Manulife reporting.

Date Companies Earnings
Monday, February 12 Avis Budget Group, Inc. (CAR): $4.36 EPS Estimate, $2.80B Revenue Estimate (AMC)
Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company (GT): $0.33 EPS Estimate, $5.40B Revenue Estimate (AMC)
Tuesday, February 13 Coca-Cola Company (KO): $0.48 EPS Estimate, $10.66B Revenue Estimate (BMO) *
Marriott International, Inc. (MAR): $2.12 EPS Estimate, $6.20B Revenue Estimate (BMO)
AutoNation, Inc. (AN): $4.87 EPS Estimate, $6.70B Revenue Estimate (BMO)
Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB): $0.67 EPS Estimate, $2.16B Revenue Estimate (AMC) 
MGM Resorts International (MGM): $0.67 EPS Estimate, $4.08B Revenue Estimate (AMC) 
American Internation Group, Inc. (AIG): $1.59 EPS Estimate, $11.81B Revenue Estimate (AMC)
Wednesday, February 14 Sony Group Corporation (SONY): $1.68 EPS Estimate, $24.66B Revenue Estimate (BMO)
Sunoco, Inc. (SUN): $0.96 EPS Estimate, $5.14B Revenue Estimate (BMO)
Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO): $0.84 EPS Estimate, $12.71B Revenue Estimate (AMC) *
Occidental Petroleum Corp. (OXY): $0.74 EPS Estimate, $7.21B Revenue Estimate (AMC)
Manulife Financial Corp. (MFC): $0.63 EPS Estimate, $4.62B Revenue Estimate (AMC)
Thursday, February 15 Deere & Company (DE): $5.16 EPS Estimate, $10.33B Revenue Estimate (BMO)
Hyatt Hotels Corp (H): $0.38 EPS Estimate, $1.60B Revenue Estimate (BMO) 
Applied Materials, Inc. (AMAT): $1.90 EPS Estimate, $6.48B Revenue Estimate (AMC)
Friday, February 16 N/A

* indicates that this company is in the Dow Jones Index

Economic Reports for the week of February 12 – February 16

Fed speakers relax a bit this week, with only one speaker a day maximum scheduled for next week (although unscheduled appearances may occur at any time). The Consumer Price Index (CPI) arrives Tuesday morning at 8:30 AM and is forecast to drop below 3% year to year. 

This could be a very volatile time for most markets, although Thursday morning’s Jobless Claims report (expected to be virtually unchanged at 217k claims) could incur activity as well. Five other reports arrive at the same time as Jobless Claims, including Manufacturing Indices from New York and Philadelphia.

In an unusual move, the Producer Price Index (PPI) arrives not one, not two, but three days after the CPI. Other news that could activate markets are the University of Michigan Sentiment report at 10 AM ET Friday, and the EIA Petroleum Status report on Wednesday at 10:30 AM ET.

Date Economic Reports
Monday, February 12 11:00 AM ET: Export Inspections
12:00 PM ET: Minneapolis Fed Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari Speaks
2:00 PM ET: Treasury Statement
Tuesday, February 13 6:00 AM ET: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
8:30 AM ET: CPI ***
4:30 PM ET: API Weekly Oil Stocks
Wednesday, February 14 7:00 AM ET: MBA Mortgage Applications
9:30 AM ET: Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee Speaks
10:30 AM ET: EIA Petroleum Status Report *
Thursday, February 15 8:30 AM ET: Jobless Claims ***
8:30 AM ET: Import and Export Prices
8:30 AM ET: Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
8:30 AM ET: Empire State Manufacturing Index
8:30 AM ET: Retail Sales
8:30 AM ET: Export Sales
9:15 AM ET: Industrial Production
10:00 AM ET: Business Inventories
10:00 AM ET: Housing Market Index
10:30 AM ET: EIA Natural Gas Report
4:00 PM ET: Treasury International Capital
4:30 PM ET: Fed Balance Sheet
7:00 PM ET: Atlanta Fed Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic Speaks
Friday, February 16 8:30 AM ET: PPI-Final Demand *
8:30 AM ET: Housing Starts and Permits
10:00 AM ET: Consumer Sentiment *
12:10 PM ET: San Francisco Fed Reserve Bank President Mary Daly Speaks
1:00 PM ET: Baker Hughes Rig Count

*** Market Moving Indicators
* Merit Extra Attention

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