Futures Trading Outlook: Euro FX Futures Pullback

By NinjaTrader Team


In this week’s coverage, we analyze the consolidating trend in E-mini Russell 2000 Index, WTI Crude Oil and RBOB gasoline futures, and the pullback in Euro FX futures. We also examine the economic reports and earnings announcements expected next week.

Please Note: 
Commentary and charts reflect data at the time of writing. Market conditions are subject to change and may not reflect all market activity.


March E-Mini Russell 2000 Index Futures Weekly Chart 

March E-mini Russell 2000 Index futures continued to trade to the 200-week moving average while testing the steep supportive trend line that began in October. The E-mini Russell also remains above the Ichimoku cloud, which is considered bullish. The MACD remains bullish as the MACD line remains above its signal line and the zero line. RSI is trading in line with price. Should support hold, resistance might be found in the area defined by three of the last four tops of the market (2,085 – 2,125). A breakdown of the trend line and Ichimoku cloud could see support at the 52-week moving average (~1,888) and further down at the recent low of 1,658.3.

E-mini Russell 2000 Index futures

March WTI Crude Oil Futures Daily Chart

March WTI Crude Oil futures stopped the rally in its tracks, starting the week above the Ichimoku cloud and finishing below the same cloud. This keeps the price of crude oil below the 52-week moving average, though it has yet to re-test the support line that began in April 2023. The MACD looked to be turning bullish, however, last week's trading backed off of a bullish cross. The RSI retraced along with price. If there's follow through on last week's bearish move, support might be found at the trend line (~71.80) and further down at the recent low, which coincides with the 200-week moving average (61.85). A reverse to the upside might see resistance at the top of the Ichimoku cloud (~78.05) and at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the downtrend that started in March 2022 and ended in May 2023 (83.05).

Crude oil futures

March Euro FX Futures Daily Chart

March Euro FX futures continued its downward journey, completing the fourth bearish candle out of the last five. After testing the downward sloping resistance line that began in May 2021, Euro FX is nearing the support line that began in September 2022. These two trend lines form a triangle pattern, and time is ticking for a breakout on either side. The MACD is set to cross not only the zero line but its signal line as well, which could be interpreted as bearish. RSI is downward sloping in accordance with Euro FX prices. If the downtrend continues, look for a support at the bottom edge of the triangle (~1.07575) and further down at the bottom of the Ichimoku cloud (~1.06200). A rally could see resistance at the top of the triangle that coincides with the 38.2 Fibonacci retracement level (~1.1000).

Euro FX futures

March Copper Futures Daily Chart

March copper futures end of the week down, remaining under the 52-week moving average despite trading above both the 52- and 200-week moving averages, and testing the top of the Ichimoku cloud. This area corresponds with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level found by the measuring the downtrend that began in January 2023 and ended in October the same year. The MACD is registering a neutral indication, resting just below zero, as is its signal line. The RSI is trading in line with price at about 50, also a neutral reading. If this market remains bearish, there may be support at the 23.6% Fib retracement level (3.7729) and further at the recent low of 3.5645. A rally could see resistance at the 50% retracement level (4.0060).

Copper futures

Companies Reporting Earnings February 5 – February 9

Four Dow Jones companies report this week: Caterpillar and McDonald's on Monday morning, Amgen on Tuesday afternoon, and Walt Disney on Wednesday afternoon. 

Deviations and expectations in any of these companies might sway the YM and MYM contracts. Automakers get their turn as we see Toyota and Ford report on Tuesday, and Honda reports Thursday morning. 

Oil companies BP and ConocoPhillips report this week and health care companies CVS Health and Tenet Healthcare also report. Other notables include Alibaba on Wednesday morning, Allstate on Wednesday afternoon, and Pepsi on Friday morning.

Date Companies Earnings
Monday, February 5 Caterpillar, Inc. (CAT): $4.76 EPS Estimate, $17.11B Revenue Estimate (BMO) *
McDonalds Corp. (MCD): $2.81 EPS Estimate, $6.48B Revenue Estimate (BMO) *
Tuesday, February 6 Elli Lilly & Co. (LLY): $2.46 EPS Estimate, $8.90B Revenue Estimate (BMO) 
Spotify Technology S.A. (SPOT): $-0.08 EPS Estimate, $4.04B Revenue Estimate (BMO) 
BP p.l.c. (BP): $1.09 EPS Estimate, $59.53B Revenue Estimate (BMO)
Hertz Global Holdings, Inc. (HTZ): $-1.02 EPS Estimate, $2.18B Revenue Estimate (BMO)
Toyota Motor Corp. (TM): $3.66 EPS Estimate, $73.72B Revenue Estimate (BMO)
Ford Motor Company (F): $0.13 EPS Estimate, $36.39B Revenue Estimate (AMC)
Amgen, Inc. (AMGN): $4.69 EPS Estimate, $8.14B Revenue Estimate (AMC) *
Wednesday, February 7 Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. (BABA): $2.72 EPS Estimate, $36.69B Revenue Estimate (BMO) 
Uber Technologies, Inc. (UBER): $0.15 EPS Estimate, $9.77B Revenue Estimate (BMO)
CVS Health (CVS): $2.00 EPS Estimate, $90.37B Revenue Estimate (BMO)
PayPal (PYPL): $1.36 EPS Estimate, $7.87B Revenue Estimate (AMC)
Walt Disney Co. (DIS): $1.00 EPS Estimate, $23.47B Revenue Estimate (AMC) *
Allstate Corp. (ALL): $3.87 EPS Estimate, $15.04B Revenue Estimate (AMC) 
Thursday, February 8 ConocoPhillips (COP): $2.19 EPS Estimate, $16.18B Revenue Estimate (BMO)
Kellanova (K): $0.74 EPS Estimate, $3.08B Revenue Estimate (BMO) 
Honda Motor Co., Ltd. (HMC): $0.85 EPS Estimate, $37.68B Revenue Estimate (BMO)
Expedia, Inc. (EXPE): $1.08 EPS Estimate, $2.88B Revenue Estimate (AMC)
Tenet Healthcare Corp. (THC): $1.55 EPS Estimate, $5.25B Revenue Estimate (AMC) 
Friday, February 9 PepsiCo, Inc. (PEP): $1.72 EPS Estimate, $28.41B Revenue Estimate (BMO)

* indicates that this company is in the Dow Jones Index

Economic Reports for the week of February 5 – February 9

It's a fairly light week in terms of economic reports: Monday morning we see PMI and ISM reports; Tuesday the lone API weekly oil report; and Wednesday, aside from the weekly MBA Mortgage and Petroleum Status reports, we have the International Trading Goods and Services Information. Thursday should be interesting with the Jobless Claims reporting at 8:30 AM ET, and in the agricultural markets, the Supply and Demand numbers (WASDE) at noon could be market moving.

What we do get this week is our share of Fed speakers. Raphael Bostic starts the party on Monday afternoon, and Tuesday and Wednesday are loaded with no less than seven different speakers. Thursday sees Thomas Barkin speak, and Friday the only report scheduled is the Baker Hughes rig count. Be aware that this might not be an accounting of every fed speaker and that what these fed speakers have to say could move the markets.

Date Economic Reports
Monday, February 5 9:45 AM ET: PMI Composite Final
10:00 AM ET: ISM Services Index
11:00 AM ET: Export Inspections
2:00 PM ET: Atlanta Fed Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic Speaks
Tuesday, February 6 12:00 PM ET: Cleveland Fed Reserve Bank President Loretta Mester Speaks
1:00 PM ET: Minneapolis Fed Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari Speaks
2:00 PM ET: Boston Fed Reserve Bank President Susan Collins Speaks
4:30 PM ET: API Weekly Oil Stocks
7:00 PM ET: Philadelphia Fed Reserve Bank President Patrick Harker Speaks
Wednesday, February 7  7:00 AM ET: MBA Mortgage Applications
8:30 AM ET: International Trade in Goods and Services
10:30 AM ET: EIA Petroleum Status Report
11:00 AM ET: Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler Speaks
11:30 AM ET: Boston Fed Reserve Bank President Susan Collins Speaks
12:00 PM ET: Richmond Fed Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin Speaks
2:00 PM ET: Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman Speaks
3:00 PM ET: Consumer Credit
Thursday, February 8 8:30 AM ET: Jobless Claims ***
8:30 AM ET: Export Sales
10:00 AM ET: Wholesale Inventories (Preliminary)
10:30 AM ET: EIA Natural Gas Report *
11:30 AM ET: Richmond Fed Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin Speaks
12:00 PM ET: USDA Supply/Demand - Wheat, Corn, Soybean, Cotton
12:00 PM ET: Crop Production
4:30 PM ET: Fed Balance Sheet
Friday, February 9 1:00 PM ET: Baker Hughes Rig Count

*** Market Moving Indicators
* Merit Extra Attention

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