Futures Trading Outlook: Futures Market Trends for the Week Ahead

By NinjaTrader

Coverage for the week of February 27th - March 3rd: As you prepare for the last week of February 2023 and start of March, see what our analysts have to say about the futures markets with visual representation of the market trends via Bollinger bands. They also cover what to focus on for upcoming economic and company reports.

E-Mini Dow Jones Futures Daily Chart

March E-Mini Dow Jones futures broke down below 33000 last week, which acted as support in late December. The 50-day moving average failed to hold as support as YM traded down to 32600, which was a support area in early December. The Bollinger Bands are widening with last week’s downtrend, with price action following the lower band, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD indicator is in a bearish state, and the RSI is trending towards an oversold situation. Should the Dow continue to sell off, support could be found at 32050 (the 50% retracement From May 2022 highs to October 2022 lows). Upside resistance might be found at 33750 (76% Fib retracement level, and convergence of the 20-day and 50-day moving averages).

Crude Oil Futures Daily Chart

April crude oil futures continue to be range bound between 70.50 and 83.83, with the lower Bollinger band acting as support when price approaches it. Last week, the 50-day moving average failed as support, and the MACD turned bearish. The rally at the end of last week pushed the RSI to 45, giving some hope to a bullish trend. If this rally continues, expect headwinds at 77.15 (20-day moving average) and 77.80 (50-day moving average). Support on the downside could be found at 73.6, the lower Bollinger band.

Euro FX Futures Daily Chart

March Euro FX futures continues its slide, finding support at the 38% Fibonacci retracement level of the previous uptrend (from September 2022 lows to the highs earlier in February). Price continues to ride the lower Bollinger band, a bearish indication. The MACD histogram has been negative since late January and doesn’t show any sign that the trend is slowing. RSI is approaching the oversold level of 30, though the market can continue to sell off once that level is breached. Should this downtrend continue, look for possible support at 1.036 (50% retracement level). A rally could take this market to 1.073 (23% Fib level, 20-day and 50-day moving averages).

Gold Futures Daily Chart

April gold futures found support at 1812, which is the 50% retracement level of the previous uptrend (from the November 2022 low to the February high). Price is trading towards the lower Bollinger band, and while usually this coincides with widening bands, these bands seem to be a constant distance apart.  The MACD is very bearish, as all parts of that study are negative, and not indicating a trend reversal. RSI crossed below the oversold level of 30 – a break back above 30 could mean signs of a trend change (we’re not there yet). The 61% Fib retracement level at 1773 could hold as support if the trend continues. Failing that 1725 coincides with the 76% Fib retracement level as well as previous support in July and August of last year. The 38% Fib level could be resistance in the event of a rally.

Economic Reports for the week of February 27th – March 3rd

The Manufacturing and Services components of the economy dominate reports this week, with PMI Manufacturing Final on Wednesday and PMI Composite Final on Friday (both at 9:45 am ET). Also on Wednesday, ISM Manufacturing Index and Construction Spending reports are released at 10 am ET.  Regional reports come on Monday (Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey) and Tuesday (Chicago PMI and Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index). These reports give insight into the health of the U.S. economy, which could influence Fed decisions – and volatility in stock index and bond futures. Jobless Claims on Thursday is an important piece of the labor market puzzle – with the Fed looking for a cool labor market to rein in inflation, a better-than-expected number could shake the markets. Reports reflecting the housing market occur on Tuesday with the Price indices from Case-Shiller and the FHFA, and on Wednesday (the weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report).

*** Market Moving Indicators
* Merit Extra Attention

Date Economic Reports
Monday, February 27th 8:30 AM ET: Durable Goods Orders
10:00 AM ET: Pending Home Sales Index
10:30 AM ET: Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey*
11:00 AM ET: Export Inspections
Tuesday, February 28th 8:30 AM ET: International Trade in Goods [Advance]
9:00 AM ET: Case-Shiller Home Price Index
9:00 AM ET: FHFA House Price Index
9:45 AM ET: Chicago PMI*
10:00 AM ET: Consumer Confidence
10:00 AM ET: Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index*
1:00 PM ET: Money Supply
3:00 PM ET: Farm Prices
Wednesday, March 1st 7:00 AM ET: MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET: Bank Reserve Settlement
9:45 AM ET: PMI Manufacturing Final***
10:00 AM ET: ISM Manufacturing Index*
10:00 AM ET: Construction Spending*
10:30 AM ET: EIA Petroleum Status Report*
3:00 PM ET: Fats & Oils
3:00 PM ET: Grain Crushings
Thursday, March 2nd 7:00 AM ET: Motor Vehicle Sales
8:30 AM ET: Export Sales
8:30 AM ET: Jobless Claims***
8:30 AM ET: Productivity and Costs
10:30 AM ET: EIA Natural Gas Report*
4:30 PM ET: Fed Balance Sheet
Friday, March 3rd 9:45 AM ET: PMI Composite Final***
10:00 AM ET: ISM Services Index
12:00 PM ET: Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic Speech
1:00 PM ET: Baker Hughes Rig Count
4:15 PM ET: Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin Speech

Companies Reporting Earnings for the week of February 27th – March 3rd

Retail and Canadian Banks share the spotlight this week. Target reports Tuesday morning – pay close attention to the guidance provided with the earnings, as it can provide a look into the health of the retail economy for 2023. Compare and contrast Wednesday morning’s Dollar Tree and Kohl’s reports (low end retail) with Thursday’s reports from Macy’s and Nordstrom (higher-end retail) to get more economic insight. Canadian Banks include Bank of Montreal, Bank of Nova Scotia, RBC and TD Bank – which could tell us about the Canadian economy, important especially to CAD FX traders. Computer hardware firms HP and Dell also report this week.

BMO = Before Market Open
AMC = After Market Close

* indicates that this company is in the S&P 500 Index

Date Earnings Reports
Monday, February 27th Berkshire Hathaway, Inc. (BRK.B): $3.31 EPS Estimate, $--.--B Revenue Estimate (BMO)*
Occidental Petroleum (OXY): $1.83 EPS Estimate, $8.66B Revenue Estimate (AMC)*
Tuesday, February 28th AutoZone, Inc. (AZO): $21.33 EPS Estimate, $3.56B Revenue Estimate (BMO)*
Bank of Montreal (BMO): $2.29 EPS Estimate, $5.40B Revenue Estimate (BMO)
Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS): $1.52 EPS Estimate, $6.20B Revenue Estimate (BMO)
Target Corp. (TGT): $1.38 EPS Estimate, $30.71B Revenue Estimate (BMO)*
Agilent Technologies (A): 1.30 EPS Estimate, $1.70B Revenue Estimate (AMC)*
HP Inc. (HPQ): $0.74 EPS Estimate, $14.15B Revenue Estimate (AMC)*
Wednesday, March 1st Dollar Tree Stores, Inc. (DLTR): $2.03 EPS Estimate, $7.59B Revenue Estimate (BMO)*
Kohl’s Corporation (KSS): $1.02 EPS Estimate, $6.00B Revenue Estimate (BMO)*
Lowe’s Companies, Inc. (LOW): $2.24 EPS Estimate, $22.75B Revenue Estimate (BMO)*
Royal Bank of Canada (RY): $2.19 EPS Estimate, $9.95B Revenue Estimate (BMO)
Salesforce (CRM): $0.73 EPS Estimate, $8.00B Revenue Estimate (AMC)*
Thursday, March 2nd Anheuser-Busch InBev (BUD): $0.72 EPS Estimate, $15.37B Revenue Estimate (BMO)
Best Buy Co., Inc. (CBRE): $2.09 EPS Estimate, $14.70B Revenue Estimate (BMO)*
Macy’s, Inc. (M): $1.57 EPS Estimate, $8.25B Revenue Estimate (BMO)*
TD Bank (TD): $1.66 EPS Estimate, $9.20B Revenue Estimate (BMO)
Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST): $3.21 EPS Estimate, $55.47B Revenue Estimate (AMC)*
Dell Technologies (DELL): $1.39 EPS Estimate, $23.67B Revenue Estimate (AMC)*
Nordstrom, Inc. (JWN): $0.65 EPS Estimate, $4.35B Revenue Estimate (AMC)*

Be sure to check back weekly and follow us on our social media accounts to receive alerts of our Futures Outlooks week to week.

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